Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
746 FXUS64 KFWD 251101 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 601 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather will be possible across parts of North Texas today with areas along and north of I-20 to the Red River having the highest chances for storms. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible. - An unsettled pattern will continue through next week with additional storm chances expected across the region, particularly Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Severe thunderstorms continue late this evening across our far eastern counties aided by strong instability and forced ascent along the leading edge of convective outflow. This activity will continue to drift south over the next hour or so before gradually diminishing in intensity. The remainder of the overnight will generally feature a period of atmospheric recovery where a dryline continues to retreat westward and low level flow becomes more southerly. A convective outflow reinforced frontal boundary is currently draped near the I-20 corridor with northeast winds to the north of this boundary and temperatures about 5-10 degrees cooler than to the south. As convection to the east diminishes and low level winds recover, this boundary will retreat northward allowing upper 60s and lower 70s dewpoints to spread back to the north. This may result in some areas of fog developing to the north of I-20 during the early morning hours Saturday. Otherwise, by early Saturday morning, a warm and humid airmass will be in place with areas of low clouds expected. The forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening will be largely dependent upon the strength of a capping inversion and focused forcing for ascent along a dryline that will be draped across our western counties. Morning clouds should be quick to scatter out by midday leaving a fairly pristine volatile airmass in place across North Texas. Forecast soundings suggest strong afternoon heating will be sufficient to largely erode the cap in the absence of more appreciable large scale lift. However, unlike Friday, we may get some assistance from a 90-100 kt upper jet that will be nosing into North Texas during the late afternoon hours atop the sharpening dryline. Most of the high resolution guidance develops convection just to the west of the Metroplex during the late afternoon and early evening with additional severe storms developing across Oklahoma. The environment will be more than conducive for significant severe weather with MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg and strengthening flow aloft resulting in long straight hodographs. This would support at least isolated supercells with a very large hail (>3") and damaging wind threat. However, any storms that can linger after sunset (particularly isolated storms) would be aided by a strengthening low level jet and increasingly curved low level hodographs supportive of a tornado threat. Given the environmental parameters, a strong tornado or two would not be out of the question. Coverage of storms is expected to be isolated initially (~10%), especially any storms that develop along the dryline itself. Coverage will be higher across Oklahoma similar to Friday and this activity is expected to again drift to the southeast and will largely impact our northeast counties again after dark (Saturday night). It is important to note that most areas will not see storms on Saturday, but those that do could be impacted by significant severe weather. This is a classic low coverage-high impact severe weather threat typical of North Texas spring time. Thunderstorms should continue Saturday night mainly across our northeast counties before weakening during the overnight hours. Sunday will feature a similar setup to Saturday, although afternoon instability will be a little less and capping will be a little stronger. While the dryline is expected to make a push into our western counties, the strongest forcing for ascent will be displaced to our north into the Plains where the bulk of the activity is expected. We`ll maintain some very low PoPs around 10% along our Red River counties for Sunday afternoon, however any storms that develop could be severe. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The period of active weather will continue into next week with troughing becoming a little more amplified over the western CONUS Sunday night into Monday. A strengthening upper jet combined with an eastward moving Pacific front/dryline may actually trigger a few storms late Sunday night and Monday across parts of North Texas. Confidence in storm chances are pretty low at this time and we`ll keep PoPs less than 20%. A more significant frontal boundary will slide south through the Plains on Tuesday and into North Texas by Tuesday night. Showers and storms are likely to develop ahead of this front across North Texas, but instability will be considerably lower and the threat for severe weather will likely be reduced a bit. This front will stall out across parts of Central Texas on Wednesday before retreating back to the north on Thursday. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough will eject out of the Desert Southwest late Thursday setting the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night and Friday. This activity does not appear to pose a significant severe threat, but model QPF is rather impressive and it may wind up being a widespread heavy rainfall event for much of the area. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs continue to fill in across the region this morning with some breaks in the cloud cover right over the major airports. This should fill in within the next hour. Some intermittent IFR cigs are also expected and we`ll have a TEMPO for BKN009 for a few hours this morning. Clouds should be fairly quick to scatter out later this morning as southerly winds increase to 15 to 20 kt. VFR is expected by midday and should prevail outside of any convection through the remainder of the period. The main concern for late this afternoon and evening will be the potential for high impact severe thunderstorms to develop along a dryline to the west. At this time, we`ll leave any mention of TS out of the TAF given the low probability of occurrence, but will have to monitor closely through the afternoon. Coverage of storms will be isolated if they develop, with a better coverage to the northeast of the D10 airspace, which will still likely be impactful. Storms will diminish late tonight with probabilities less than 10% for Sunday. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon into the late evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 70 93 73 / 10 20 10 10 Waco 88 69 91 71 / 10 10 10 0 Paris 81 65 85 71 / 10 60 20 10 Denton 89 67 91 71 / 20 20 10 10 McKinney 89 68 90 72 / 10 30 10 10 Dallas 91 70 93 73 / 10 20 10 10 Terrell 87 68 90 71 / 10 20 10 10 Corsicana 88 71 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 Temple 86 69 91 71 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 92 67 94 69 / 10 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$