062
FXUS64 KFWD 060641
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
141 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray storm or two will be possible (20%) late tonight for
  portions of north-central Texas.

- Hot and muggy conditions are expected heading into this weekend,
  with low storm chances (15-20%) near the Red River Friday night
  into Saturday.

- An unsettled pattern returns to the region beginning Saturday
  night, with daily chances (40-60%) for thunderstorms through
  next week. Some storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Afternoon/

The isolated supercell that produced 80-100+ mph wind gusts near
Lubbock earlier this evening has since diminished. However, we
have kept low PoPs in Montague and Cooke counties as the remnant
showers may still clip the forecast area. Further north, surface
analysis indicates that a frontal boundary is draped south of the
Kansas/Oklahoma border with RAP objective analysis showing a
subtle shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies. The net result
is an increasingly organized line/complex of thunderstorms moving
into northern Oklahoma. This complex is expected to propagate
east-southeastward across Oklahoma through daybreak, decaying as
it closes in on the Red River. While guidance keeps the convection
generally north of our forecast area, there remains a low
(15-30%) chance of storms reaching our northern row of counties,
especially in the northeast. The threat for severe weather in our
forecast area is low.

In the wake of the morning storm complex, hot and humid weather
will prevail with highs in the low-mid 90s and heat index values
reaching the triple digits in a handful of locations. The surface
boundary, reinforced by outflow, will likely be stretched across
the Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma by this afternoon,
lifting northward and serving as a focus for convective
development late this afternoon and into the evening before
another convective complex develops in southwest Kansas and
northwestern Oklahoma overnight. The evolution should be similar
to this morning with a weakening trend as the storms move into
southern Oklahoma. Most of North and Central Texas is expected to
be rain-free on Saturday with hot and humid conditions persisting.
Saturday afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than Friday
which should push heat index values above 100 degrees across the
entire area. A few locations may even briefly reach Heat Advisory
criteria, however the spatial coverage is too isolated to consider
any heat products at this time.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 130 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025/
/Friday Night Onward/

Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend. MCSs will
develop on a daily basis and will have the potential to skirt
North Texas each night. While most of the MCS activity will
remain north of the Red River Friday night, there will be better
chances for storms in the forecast area Saturday night and
especially Sunday night. Some of these storms will have the
potential to be severe, with damaging winds and hail expected to
be the main threats.

A cold front will slide into the region on Monday but will become
stationary through the middle of the week. The frontal boundary
will serve as a focus for the development of additional showers
and storms on a daily basis through mid to late next week.
Fortunately, the rain chances will keep temperatures slightly
below normal with highs in the 80s and morning lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the TAF sites with MVFR ceilings expected to
develop across Central and East Texas from 10Z to 16Z. Coverage
will be the greatest across Central Texas including over KACT.
The probability of MVFR cigs reaching the Metroplex airports
remains too low (less than 20%) to warrant any inclusion in the
TAFs with this update. Outflow associated with the complex of
thunderstorms in Oklahoma this morning should remain well north of
D10, therefore no wind shift is anticipated. South winds around
10 kts will persist through the end of the period.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  95  74  94 /   5   5   0  30  10
Waco                91  75  94  75  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               89  75  91  70  90 /  30   5  20  50  10
Denton              93  73  94  71  93 /  10   5   5  30  10
McKinney            92  75  93  73  91 /  10   5   5  40  10
Dallas              93  77  96  75  96 /   5   5   0  30  10
Terrell             90  75  92  74  92 /   5   0   0  30  10
Corsicana           92  76  94  76  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
Temple              93  75  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  72  96  72  96 /   5   0   0  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$