Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
500 FXUS64 KFWD 311849 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures up to 105 are forecast this afternoon along the I-20 and I-30 corridors of North and East Texas where a Heat Advisory is in effect. - The arrival of a weak cold front late this afternoon will result in scattered thunderstorms, with storm chances continuing through Sunday. Localized strong to severe downburst winds and pockets of heavy rain are possible during this time period. - A complex of thunderstorms could affect portions of the area Sunday night into Monday, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ Main story of the short-term forecast continues to be the heat and storm chances late this afternoon and evening for portions of North Texas. Latest surface analysis show a weak cold front making a slow progression across the Red River. As advertised in previous discussions, this will serve as the focus of isolated to scattered showers/storms mainly after 3 pm through around 9-10 pm. Areas generally along/north of I-20 have the best chances to see this activity before it dissipates late in the evening. Weak shear and a well-mixed boundary layer will support the rapid development of isolated slow-moving storms which will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours. Additionally, some of the stronger cells may produce strong to severe downburst winds resulting in pockets of wind damage. The chances are limited but non-zero. Otherwise, the hot conditions will continue for most locations across North and Central Texas where widespread highs in the triple digits are expected, making it the hottest day so far this summer for most of us. We`re still expecting the front to become nearly stationary along the I-20 corridor tonight into tomorrow. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during the day tomorrow, especially in the afternoon with the help of daytime heating and an upper level wave. A few strong storms are possible with gusty winds. Given that the environment will also support slow moving showers/storms or multiple rounds of precipitation, there will be a conditional threat for localized heavy rain and flooding. Probabilities of localized rainfall totals of at least 4 inches (through Saturday morning) are being highlighted in the latest HREF for areas generally east of I-35 and north of I-30. It is worth keeping an eye on the trends as the forecast continues to be adjusted. Areas south of the boundary, mainly east of I-35 and south of I-20 may still reach heat advisory criteria with heat indices near 105-107. Model trends will be monitored tonight and heat products may be issued for these areas in coordination with our WFO neighbors. Otherwise, highs tomorrow will likely stay in the mid to upper 90s for most locations with the exception of areas along the Red River where low 90s are forecast. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Weekend through Mid Next Week/ Periods of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend as the upper ridge remains over northern Mexico and the southwest US. The combination of the lingering surface boundary and north flow aloft and passing disturbances will support the development of at least scattered rain on Saturday and more isolated activity on Sunday. The clouds and rain will help keep the temperatures in the low 90s on Saturday with a few locations across the northeast staying in the upper 80s. Temperatures will gradually warm up Sunday into next week, but at least it won`t be as hot as this week. We are also monitoring the potential for another storm complex to move south from Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday which will bring at least low rain chances for North Texas. After that, the upper ridge will make its way back into our region with the return of mostly dry weather and seasonably hot temperatures. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...potential for VCTS late this afternoon and evening. Another round of scattered convection Friday afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through the period with a mix of daytime cumulus and high clouds. Latest guidance still shows a weak cold front slowly moving across the North Texas sites this evening. Isolated to scattered convection is still expected to develop mainly north of the sites between 22-04Z. Some of this activity may briefly impact some of the sites between 23-03Z before coverage decreases and the activity diminishes tonight. In addition to the lightning threat, gusty/erratic winds are possible near any storms that develop. Outside of any convection, winds will remain light and variable through the evening before northeast winds settle and continue through tomorrow. The surface boundary is expected to become nearly stationary over the area tomorrow and will serve as a focus for another round of scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Confidence in the timing and coverage remains too low to add any mention of VCTS at this time. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 96 76 92 75 / 20 30 30 30 5 Waco 77 99 76 94 76 / 5 20 30 40 10 Paris 74 91 72 87 69 / 30 50 40 30 5 Denton 77 95 73 92 73 / 20 40 30 30 5 McKinney 76 95 73 90 72 / 20 40 30 30 5 Dallas 81 98 76 93 76 / 20 30 30 30 5 Terrell 76 96 73 90 72 / 10 40 40 40 5 Corsicana 77 100 76 94 75 / 5 30 30 50 10 Temple 75 100 75 96 74 / 5 20 30 40 20 Mineral Wells 76 95 73 95 72 / 20 30 20 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-145-146. && $$