Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
283 FXUS64 KFWD 172312 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 512 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across all of North and Central Texas today through sunset, with the threat shifting to areas near/west of I-35 Sunday. - Rain chances (20-50%) return to the eastern half of the region on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a steep longwave trough that is draped across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. A shortwave disturbance continues to dig south as it rounds the base of the trough, providing enough lift to allow dense mid-level cloud cover to gradually spread south across more of the region this afternoon. Light precipitation echoes are expected to persist across areas north of I-20 up towards the Red River through afternoon, but not much is expected to reach the ground due to dry air in the low-levels of the atmosphere. However, forecast soundings show a bit of top-down saturation this afternoon, which can be observed by lowering cloud heights on METARs. This deepening moisture profile alongside sub-freezing temps aloft and present ascent will promote a few flurries and/or sprinkles north of I-20 through the afternoon. As such, we will continue to message the low chance for some isolated sprinkles and flurries for portions of North Texas. Any precipitation will come to an end later this afternoon/evening as the increased mid-level moisture finally exits to our east/southeast. Otherwise, the lingering cloud cover across much of the region will keep afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Expect continued cold conditions overnight into Sunday, where temperatures will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s. Make sure to bundle up if you leave your house, and to protect the 4 P`s - pets, people, plants, and pipes. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer as southerly winds return underneath mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs are expected to peak in the 50s and 60s. Breezy winds and low RH values will set us up for an elevated fire weather threat both today and tomorrow, with the highest concern for areas near and west of I-35 where RH is lowest and winds are stronger. There is quite a bit of dried fuels across the region, so make sure to avoid any activities that could produce fire starts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Another digging disturbance will shunt a cold front southward late Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures cooler through the first half of this upcoming week. Expect near to below freezing morning lows and afternoon highs mainly in the 40s and 50s through Tuesday. By midweek, warmer and moister air will be advected northward in response to a digging shortwave disturbance. This isentropic upglide will promote isolated to scattered showers to develop across portions of the region on Wednesday, mainly near and east of I-35. As the aforementioned shortwave swings across the Plains, it`s attendant cold front will be ushered through the region as we head into Thursday. A quick warm up (highs mainly in the 60s) will occur at the end of the week and into next weekend before yet another cold front brings cooler temperatures and another potential shot at rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Cloud deck will continue to exit D10 and KACT this evening with just few to scattered clouds around 11k ft expected. Tomorrow will see SKC with a few cirrus spreading in Sunday night. North to northwest winds will decrease tonight with speeds less than 10 knots. Winds will back to southerly/southwesterly around 12-13Z with speeds up to 10 knots through 18Z then up to 15 knots Sunday afternoon. Another fropa is expected late Sunday evening that will switch winds to northerly near/after 19/03Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 26 60 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 24 60 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 20 53 29 47 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 18 60 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 20 57 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 26 60 34 52 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 20 57 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 25 60 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 23 61 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 20 63 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Shamburger