Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
149 FXUS64 KFWD 052336 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A an isolated shower or storm may develop this evening. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening will bring a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes across parts of North and Central TX. - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to bring a threat for severe weather and flash flooding this weekend and into next week, especially Saturday and Tuesday-Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday night) Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 An unsettled weather pattern remains in place across the region with a few more rounds of showers and storms as we wrap up the week. We`re still monitoring the potential for severe storms and locally heavy rain tomorrow afternoon through Friday night. For the rest of today, surface analysis show a warm front just north of the Red River with a dryline well to our west in West Texas (near the NM/TX border). In the mid-upper levels, a positively tilted trough remains over the western U.S. keeping the southwesterly flow and broad ascent over much of the southern Plains. Breezy southerly winds in the lower levels will help support WAA showers and isolated storms later this afternoon and evening, particularly near the Red River. Additional storms may try to sneak into our western counties tonight but the overall thinking is that they will weaken/dissipate as they approach our region. The rest of the night should be dry, but the breezy southerly winds will persist through tomorrow along with the return of low clouds. As the upper trough begins to eject to the northeast tomorrow, the surface low/cold front will shift eastward toward the TX/OK Panhandle. The progression of the surface feature will be fairly slow during the day but we will likely see another round of warm advection showers and isolated storms ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. The severe weather risk for our area hasn`t changed much from the previous forecasts with the greatest risk generally along and north of I-20 towards the northeast. Latest guidance continues to show favorable low-level and deep layer shear profiles with sufficient instability in place. Forecast soundings also suggest sufficient hodograph curvature for low level rotation and large hail potential (with hail up to 2"). This may increase the tornado potential for our area. What remains uncertain is how far south into our area these discrete cells will develop and how fast the atmosphere is able to destabilize during the day. As the front continues to push south and approaches our area Friday night, coverage of showers and storms along the front will increase. The potential for severe weather is expected to decrease during the night as the winds veer to the southwest but the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding may increase and continue on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 Our weather will remain fairly active over the weekend with widespread showers and a few storms on Saturday and additional rain chances on Sunday. The cold front will continue its way across the region on Saturday, slowing down as it moves towards Central Texas. Depending on where the front stalls is where the highest coverage of showers/storms will be. While we can`t rule out a strong storm or two over Central Texas on Saturday, the main concern will be the potential for flash flooding. Most of the models are highlighting high PWs which will result in very efficient rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected across parts of Central and East Texas with localized 3-4+" possible along and south of I-20 through Sunday. Rain chances will decrease for North Texas on Sunday as the front remains nearly stationary over our southern counties. Additional rain and storm chances are expected early next week as the previously closed upper low across Baja California and northern Mexico begins to shift eastward. We`re still watching the potential for another round of severe weather and heavy rain on Tuesday as the storm system moves over our state. Details on timing and progression are still uncertain and will continue to be adjusted. The good news is that we could see rain chances end late Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low finally exits to our east. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 A few convective attempts have gone up late this afternoon across D10 with no impacts other than some very brief light rain before dissipating. The gusts of 25-30 kts from today will diminish this evening with sustained speeds still around 15 kts overnight. MVFR will move in once again with arrival at D10 sites likely ~09Z, and Waco a bit earlier at ~07Z. These cigs will lift and scatter around midday/early afternoon with isolated showers developing as early as mid-morning across North and Central TX. Scattered storms are more likely to develop in the afternoon and evening with the highest coverage anticipated near and north of the Metroplex. Have left ACT with VCSH through the period due to lower confidence in storm coverage, and introduced VCTS from ~19Z to 22Z for D10. Confidence in direct impacts at any site is low, but trends are high enough to warrant a VCTS this issuance and refine in future TAFs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today. Activation may be requested again late Friday into Saturday. Stay up-to-date with the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 67 81 58 / 50 20 80 70 Waco 81 67 81 65 / 40 10 60 60 Paris 78 64 80 60 / 60 30 70 90 Denton 78 65 79 53 / 50 30 80 60 McKinney 78 66 80 58 / 50 30 80 70 Dallas 80 67 81 60 / 50 20 80 70 Terrell 80 66 82 61 / 40 20 70 80 Corsicana 83 68 85 65 / 30 10 60 70 Temple 82 67 83 65 / 40 10 50 60 Mineral Wells 80 65 81 52 / 50 30 70 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Gordon