962
FXUS63 KFSD 220832
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
232 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Life-threatening cold temperatures move in tonight and
   continue into Friday morning. The coldest wind chills will
   average -25 to -40 during this time.

-  Wind chill values Friday night into Sunday morning will
   average about -15 to -25.

-  Precipitation chances remain fairly low for the next several
   days. Possibly some very light accumulations Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Scattered flurries will remain possible through the morning, but
impacts from them will be minimal. A slightly better chance for
patchy light snow near the Missouri River in the afternoon but even
if snow can develop amounts would likely be a couple tenths or less.
Temperatures gradually fall colder than the dgz so snowfall
production potential will drop off through the day. Otherwise, winds
will increase again this afternoon into the evening as cold air
advection increases in the low level as the Arctic air mass settles
southward. Wind gusts could be in the 25 to 35 mph range into Friday
morning. Coupling the winds with the incoming Arctic air will result
in some dangerously cold conditions. Wind chill values tonight into
Friday morning will average -20 to -40.

The coldest conditions end by late morning Friday as surface high
pressure builds and winds diminish. Temperatures will remain very
cold however with daytime highs generally below zero and Saturday
morning lows about -5 to -15.

Friday night a wave moves through but snowfall may be tough to come
by. Thermal profiles show temperatures generally below the dgz so
while some flurries or ice crystals will be possible with the
passage of this wave, any measurable snow will be minimal. The
better chance for maybe half an inch will be near the Missouri
River.

Sunday remains cold as a secondary area of cold air settles south.
Not quite as cold as Friday and Saturday but still anticipate lows
in the single digits below zero and highs mainly single digits above
zero. Winds will be on the lighter side, but still allow for wind
chill values of -10 to -20.

Flow turns more westerly aloft next week which will allow for less
cold air to spread across the area. There will be some snow to melt
so temperatures will not greatly respond to this slightly milder air
mass, so still looking at temperatures a bit below normal. There is
some agreement that by about Thursday next week we may see another
shot of Arctic air.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

An 850-700 mb layer of modest moisture and weak omega providing lift
will result in the geographic expansion of scattered to broken
clouds that will last through the majority of the period. Ceilings
are expected to hover between 3500 and 5000 ft AGL at KHON and KFSD.
KSUX will be slightly higher between 5000 and 7000 ft AGL. A few
nuisance flurries are possible through the majority of the
period, but no accumulation or impacts to flight operations are
expected. By the end of the period, further lowering of the
clouds along and north of Highway 14 may result in MVFR
ceilings.

Light westerly winds will gradually become north-northwesterly
through the morning and increase. Wind gusts peak in the early
afternoon between 23-27 kts. Winds rapidly decrease after
sunset.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
     for SDZ038-053-059>062-065>071.
     Extreme Cold Watch Friday afternoon for SDZ038>040-052>056-
     058>062-065>067-069>071.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Friday for SDZ039-040-054>056.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
     for SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064.
MN...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
     for MNZ098.
     Extreme Cold Watch Friday afternoon for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Friday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
     for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
     Extreme Cold Watch Friday afternoon for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.
NE...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
     for NEZ013-014.
     Extreme Cold Watch Friday afternoon for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP