694
FXUS63 KFSD 271719
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will gradually diminish this afternoon, leaving cool and
  windy conditions through the region.

- The remainder of the work week will feature cooler than normal
  temperatures and occasional risks of very light rain.

- Warmer temperatures return by next weekend with high
  temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s
  to 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Upper level troughing and associated surface low
pressure continues to move east and away from the Tri-State area
this afternoon. At mid-day we`re beginning to see 30+ knot wind
develop in central SD, which will begin to extend eastward through
the evening hours. Some gusts over 40 knots could be possible
through the higher elevation of the Ridge. Temperature will continue
to slowly fall as stratus remains in place.

TONIGHT: Subsidence will begin to chew away on lower stratus early
this evening, eventually leading to clear skies throughout the CWA
near or after midnight. Temperatures may fall below freezing in
areas north of I-90. With the recent rainfall and clear skies,
should winds fall off adequately, then areas of fog may
develop.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A broad upper trough centered across the eastern
half of the CONUS will keep the region cooler than normal through
the rest of the week. A few weak perturbations passing through the
southern side of this trough will lead to very light rain chances.
These rain chances are focused along the MO river valley Tuesday
afternoon and evening, most of the Tri-State area Wednesday
afternoon and night with these chances continuing into Thursday.
Overall QPF amounts will be light with the 24 hour probability of
QPF over 0.10" no more than 15% ATTM.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:  Confidence in the temperature forecast for the
upcoming weekend remains medium at best.  Guidance remains split on
the potential for the expansion of western CONUS ridging to the
east, increasing overall spread in ensemble guidance. That said, as
compared to 24 hours ago, the spread has narrowed slightly, with an
overall cooling in temperatures in the 25/75th percentile ranges of
the NBM. While PoPs remain below mentionable levels, the passages of
1-2 cool fronts Saturday and Monday could lead to future low end
mentions in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Widespread MVFR to locally IFR ceilings will continue into this
evening. Very light rain showers will pass through, but
meaningful impacts to visibility will be low. Northwest winds
will increase this afternoon, gusting over 30 knots at times,
and closer to 35 knots along the Buffalo Ridge this evening.

Stratus clears from NW to SE overnight, with VFR conditions in
most areas. Depending on winds overnight, we should see some fog
development. Will need to continue to monitor.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux