351
FXUS65 KFGZ 091644
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
944 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer weather with generally light winds is
expected to continue across the region through the next week. A weak
trough on Tuesday will bring increasing winds with a strong trough
expected towards the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Fair weather is here for your weekend with sunny days,
clear nights, mild temperatures and light winds. A great day to
get out there and do whatever it is you like to do.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /441 AM MST/...The low that brought us snow the
other day has shifted further east and is now centered over
eastern Colorado. The flow around the low has some clouds pushing
southward through Utah/Colorado and though the chances for showers
has dropped off, there is still the chance we could see a few
clouds move through the region today, especially near Four Corners
and along the AZ/UT and AZ/NM borders. Winds will be mostly
light, around 5 to 15 mph through the day with variable
directions. Temperatures will remain cool and today will be the
last below average day over the next week. Highs will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s across the higher terrain with the valleys
rising into the 60s.

Sunday and Monday will remain dry with light winds continuing across
the region. Temperatures will warm gradually each day and will be
near the seasonal averages for November.

A weak trough will approach the region from the west, arriving
around Tuesday. The main energy stays off to the north as the trough
is progressive and doesn`t really dig southwards as it moves
through. A slight tightening of the pressure gradient as it crosses
will bring a slight increase and a westerly shift to the winds.
Moisture is very limited with this trough so not anticipating any
shower activity though the added moisture to the atmosphere may
allow for a few extra clouds to develop.

Midweek looks to be largely uneventful with temperatures remaining
near the seasonal averages and once again we will see mainly light
winds across the region.

Another trough may approach the region from the west towards the end
of the week. Timing differences at this juncture lend to lower
confidence but this stronger trough looks to move in sometime on
Friday with impacts carrying through the weekend. Increasing winds
are expected. One thing to watch will be just how much moisture this
system is able to tap into. Some of the guidance shows this low
eventually cutting off and lingering over the area. With it having
reach into the Pacific and Gulf of California, could bring us our
next round of rain and snow. Too early to really have much
confidence in the details and what exactly will happen but enough is
out there that we will need to watch how this develops over the
coming week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 09/18Z through Sunday 10/18Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Look for mainly clear skies with light and variable
winds generally less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 10/18Z through Tuesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Expect mainly clear skies with light and variable
winds on Sunday, turning south to southwest at 5-15 kts on
Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Expect dry and warmer
conditions. Light and variable winds forecast each day, generally
less than 15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Look for dry conditions with little
change in high and low temperatures. Southerly winds 15 mph or less
on Monday will become westerly at 10-25 mph on Tuesday. Light and
variable winds will return on Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff