392
FXUS65 KFGZ 311928
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1228 PM MST Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to dominate the Southwest
through the next several days. Isolated chances for showers/storms
each afternoon through the end of the week, primarily across the
higher terrain. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast
through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona still remains wedged between a weak trough
across the West Coast and a large area of high pressure to our
east. This pattern has allowed a sliver of moisture to creep into
our CWA, but the majority of precipitation activity will be
focused across the White Mountains and along the AZ/NM border. A
similar story will pan out for tomorrow, where convective activity
will be limited to the higher terrain, especially across the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Any storms that do form
will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, brief heavy
rain, and lightning.

Over the weekend we`ll be under a slight pattern transition, where
the previously mentioned ridge will push westward and the weak
trough pulls more northward. Initially, this will tighten pressure
gradients slightly across NW Arizona. From this we could see
elevated winds across much of Coconino County, including the
Kaibab Plateau, on Saturday. By Sunday, Arizona will fall under a mostly
zonal flow and cut off any source of moisture. The quick drying
pattern will result in widespread single digit relative humidities
across northern Arizona. Fire weather concerns will still be
hanging around due to the lack of moisture so far this monsoon
season, so please continue to obey all fire restrictions! Also
worth mentioning, the Extreme Heat Warning for the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon is in place through the end of the
weekend.

Heading into next week...the area of high pressure will start to
build across the Southwest, gradually centering over New Mexico.
Although this is not the favored Four Corners High pattern we like
to see during monsoon season, we could still see isolated activity
next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Even with the
slight chances for precipitation next week, mostly dry conditions
and hot temperatures will persist through the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 31/18Z through Friday 01/18Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. Patchy MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA line due
to HZ/FU. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA through 03Z Friday, mainly east of
KPAN-KINW-KRQE line. Away from any shower activity, daytime sfc
winds S-SW10-20g25kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 01/18Z through Sunday 03/18Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. Patchy MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA line due to
HZ/FU. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly over southern Apache County Friday
afternoon, otherwise, mostly dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Not much change during this
forecast period. Above normal high temperatures will continue and
much of the region will stay dry. Deeper moisture over the eastern
sections of the district will start to dry out over the weekend.
Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will persist over
Apache County, but will likely decrease in coverage and potential
rainfall each day. Daytime southwest winds will continue at 10 to
20 mph. Gusts as high as 30 mph are possible over the higher
terrain, including the Kaibab Plateau.

Sunday through Tuesday...Hot and mostly dry conditions continue.
Monsoonal moisture may return from the south early next week, but
confidence is low at this time. Persistent daytime southwest winds
will continue at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts as high as 30 mph are possible
over the higher terrain, including the Kaibab Plateau.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff