372
FXUS65 KFGZ 060523
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1023 PM MST Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warmer and mainly dry conditions to return for
Friday, through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Shower activity has quickly died off as expected this
evening. Skies are clearing up, and with calm winds tonight temps
will rapidly drop. Bumped down the minimum temperatures a few
degrees for some areas along/south of I-40. Other than that, the
forecast is on track with minimal adjustments. See the previous
discussion for more details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /1139 AM MST/...Lingering moisture and instability
are combining with a broad Western US trough to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, most numerous in northwest
Arizona. The activity is fairly slow moving, leading to a threat of
some localized heavy rainfall of 1"/hr or a bit higher leading to
localized flooding. This will persist through early evening before
tapering off. Starting Friday, the main part of the trough will head
east of the region, with another portion cutting off over the
eastern Pacific. Heights will increase over Arizona as strong
ridging to the south noses up in our direction. This general pattern
is forecast to persist through the weekend and into next week.
Daytime high temperatures will warm to near normal Friday, then
reach 4-8 degrees above normal through at least the middle of next
week. Winds will be light through the weekend, then increase a bit
to 10-20 mph next week as the closed low off the west coast opens up
and moves eastward through the Great Basin/Utah. The airmass will
also dry out, but not as much as it can this time of year -
dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 06/06Z through Saturday 07/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible NW of KPGA-KGCN line Friday
afternoon, coverage less than 10 percent. Expect daytime sfc winds
SW-W5-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 07/06Z through Monday 09/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW-W5-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Daytime temperatures warming
to around normal values, with steadily decreasing dew points. A low
chance of convective showers will persist in northwestern Coconino
County on Friday. Minimum relative humidity values dropping to 10 to
30 percent, the driest day on Saturday. Southwest through west winds
ranging from 5 to 15 mph each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Aside from a slight chance of high-based
showers for Sunday, dry and warm weather will continue. Daytime
temperatures will peak on Monday, but will be above normal for the
period. Winds ranging from northwest to southwest at 10 to 20 mph
each day, especially Monday and Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity
values generally below 15 percent each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski/JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff