876
FXUS65 KFGZ 291110
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
410 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through the end of
the week, with the warmest temperatures expected over the coming
weekend. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures look to return in
the first-half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Heights remain steady over Arizona as a weak
shortwave rides over the Pacific ridge. Thus, a slight cool down
looks to take hold with heights about 5 deg F or so cooler than
yesterday. Given the increased southwest-northeast pressure
gradient, breezy northerly downslope winds look to remain during
the overnight hours downwind of the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw
Mountains. While gusts should primarily be in the 15-25 mph range,
a few localized higher gusts immediately downwind of the higher
terrain will be possible.

Friday through Sunday...Heights begin to rise once again as the
anomalously strong ridge begins to build eastward into Arizona.
Temperatures begin to warm considerably once again, with afternoon
highs by Sunday near 10 deg F above normal. As the pressure gradient
relaxes some with the ridge, the northeasterly breezes look to
subside with light winds prevailing through the period. In addition,
with the storm track well to the north, dry conditions look to
continue.

Monday through Wednesday...Heights fall into the start of next week
as a weak upper-level low ejects off the Pacific and undercuts the
ridge. Temperatures begin to cool gradually each day, but largely
remain near to slightly warmer than normal through the middle of
next week. With the track of the low, moisture advection into
northern Arizona looks weak, and primarily focused over southeastern
Arizona and New Mexico. Thus, dry conditions look to continue with
only some increasing cloud cover being the only likely outcome with
this low. Only a very small portion of the GEFS, EPS, and CMCE
guidance shows any (light) precipitation in the extended portion of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 29/12Z through Friday 30/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds N/NE 5-15 kts, with occasional gusts to around 20 kts. Breezy
NE winds remain overnight downwind of terrain features, otherwise
light and VRB.

OUTLOOK...Friday 30/12Z through Sunday 01/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds N/NE 5-15 kts on Friday, becoming NE/E 5-10 kts on Saturday.
Locally gusty NE winds downwind of terrain features overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Slightly cooler, near-normal
temperatures and dry conditions. Winds north/northeast 5-15 mph each
day, with localized breezy conditions remaining overnight downwind
of the higher terrain. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-25% today,
increasing to 15-30% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer, along with continued dry
conditions. Winds north through east 5-10 mph over the weekend,
becoming westerly on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH values 15-30% each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff