614
FXUS65 KFGZ 121709
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST Tue May 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and mostly dry weather will continue
through the week. Isolated showers are possible across the higher
terrain through Wednesday, along with slightly cooler temperatures
and strong southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The high starts to shift to the east today with a
shortwave moving through the mid-level flow. This wave will track
along the western periphery of the ridge before starting to push
eastward on Wednesday, eventually crossing the region. Winds turn
more southerly, allowing for better moisture advection. Some
isolated showers or sprinkle will be possible through the afternoon,
mainly across the higher terrain, though QPF amounts are expected to
remain light.

By Wednesday, the high has shifted further to the east and the flow
starts to turn more southwesterly. Temperatures will dip slightly
but are still expected to remain above normal. We will still see
moisture move into the region but latest hi-res guidance has backed
off slightly on the coverage of possible shower activity. However,
we will have enough lift and with the wave finally crossing through
the region, additional showers and some isolated thunderstorms
should be able to develop through the afternoon and into the
evening. Best chances for any activity still looks like it will be
along and north of a Grand Canyon-Flagstaff-Show Low line.

With the wave finally moving through we will also see the gradient
tightening up. This will result in stronger southwest winds around
15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Some localized gusts to 45 mph
are also possible but widespread higher gusts look marginal so will
hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory at this time.

Even with the increase in moisture through the mid-levels, the
surface will remain relatively dry. Combine the dry conditions, low
RH, curing fuels and gusty winds, and we have a decent set up for
critical fire weather concerns. A Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect for portions of the region for Wednesday. Near-critical fire
weather conditions remain possible outside of the watch area.

Thursday and beyond...Behind the wave the flow looks to become more
zonal and begins to weaken heading into Friday. A weak trough looks
to move into Arizona on Friday but flow looks to remain mostly zonal
across northern Arizona and moisture is limited though we could see a
few additional clouds during the day. A stronger wave/trough arrives
over the weekend which will increase winds on Saturday and Sunday to
southwest to west 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Depending on the
strength and track of the weekend wave, we could see a few showers
develop but confidence is pretty low this far out. Temperatures will
remain cooler than those at the start of the week but will remain
above normal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 12/18Z through Wednesday 13/18Z...VFR
conditions, a few isolated sprinkles or virga showers possible
along the Rim and White Mountains this afternoon. Winds S-SW
10-15kts, gusts to 20kts this afternoon. Gusty winds possible near
virga or light showers. Light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 13/18Z through Friday 15/18Z...VFR conditions,
a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible along
the Arizona/New Mexico border Wednesday, dry during the rest of
the time period. Winds SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-35kts Wednesday, SW-W
10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Warm temperatures continue
with mostly dry conditions expected. A slight chance of sprinkles or
showers over the higher terrain on Tuesday, with chances for showers
or dry thunderstorms on Wednesday. Wetting rains are not expected.
South to southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph today, then
increasing to southwest to west 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on
Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH between 5-20% each day. Critical
fire weather conditions are possible and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Warm and dry conditions are expected to
continue. Southwest to west winds 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph on
Thursday, diminishing to 5-15 mph on Friday. Winds increase 10-20
mph with gusts to 30 mph on Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for AZZ109-112-113-115-116-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff