Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
351 FXUS65 KFGZ 091644 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer weather with generally light winds is expected to continue across the region through the next week. A weak trough on Tuesday will bring increasing winds with a strong trough expected towards the end of next week. && .UPDATE...Fair weather is here for your weekend with sunny days, clear nights, mild temperatures and light winds. A great day to get out there and do whatever it is you like to do. && .PREV DISCUSSION /441 AM MST/...The low that brought us snow the other day has shifted further east and is now centered over eastern Colorado. The flow around the low has some clouds pushing southward through Utah/Colorado and though the chances for showers has dropped off, there is still the chance we could see a few clouds move through the region today, especially near Four Corners and along the AZ/UT and AZ/NM borders. Winds will be mostly light, around 5 to 15 mph through the day with variable directions. Temperatures will remain cool and today will be the last below average day over the next week. Highs will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the higher terrain with the valleys rising into the 60s. Sunday and Monday will remain dry with light winds continuing across the region. Temperatures will warm gradually each day and will be near the seasonal averages for November. A weak trough will approach the region from the west, arriving around Tuesday. The main energy stays off to the north as the trough is progressive and doesn`t really dig southwards as it moves through. A slight tightening of the pressure gradient as it crosses will bring a slight increase and a westerly shift to the winds. Moisture is very limited with this trough so not anticipating any shower activity though the added moisture to the atmosphere may allow for a few extra clouds to develop. Midweek looks to be largely uneventful with temperatures remaining near the seasonal averages and once again we will see mainly light winds across the region. Another trough may approach the region from the west towards the end of the week. Timing differences at this juncture lend to lower confidence but this stronger trough looks to move in sometime on Friday with impacts carrying through the weekend. Increasing winds are expected. One thing to watch will be just how much moisture this system is able to tap into. Some of the guidance shows this low eventually cutting off and lingering over the area. With it having reach into the Pacific and Gulf of California, could bring us our next round of rain and snow. Too early to really have much confidence in the details and what exactly will happen but enough is out there that we will need to watch how this develops over the coming week. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Saturday 09/18Z through Sunday 10/18Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Look for mainly clear skies with light and variable winds generally less than 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Sunday 10/18Z through Tuesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions will persist. Expect mainly clear skies with light and variable winds on Sunday, turning south to southwest at 5-15 kts on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Expect dry and warmer conditions. Light and variable winds forecast each day, generally less than 15 mph. Monday through Wednesday...Look for dry conditions with little change in high and low temperatures. Southerly winds 15 mph or less on Monday will become westerly at 10-25 mph on Tuesday. Light and variable winds will return on Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff