354
FXUS63 KFGF 060351
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1051 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dense Canadian wildfire smoke this afternoon through Friday
 evening, bringing potential impacts to all population groups.

-Isolated Severe Thunderstorm risk Saturday afternoon and
 evening for eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Heavier shower activity has ended for the most part with no
more lightning in the last 30 minutes. Overall light rain
continues through 7am but not much more than enough to wet the
roads. Forecast remains on track with just minor pop updates.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers expanding northeast this evening with some embedded
occasional thunder possible. Rain generally light with just a
few hundredths falling for most along and south of I94/HWY 10.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...Synopsis...

Ridge in the western United States helps create NW flow aloft across
the Dakotas and Minnesota through the weekend and into early next
week. This allows for quick moving shortwaves to move along the
ridge and translate across the region through the weekend and into
early next week. A weak upper level wave is currently moving through
South Dakota into Minnesota bringing mid level moisture and enough
forcing to produce precip across SD and into southern North Dakota
this afternoon. Current radar and satellite has an area of rain in
southern North Dakota tracking ENE into southeastern ND this
afternoon and evening. This will continue to track into west central
Minnesota this evening. MLCAPE is roughly 100-200 J/kg which will be
enough to produce a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon for SE
ND and into west central MN. No severe weather is expected. The rain
will exit the area by mid morning tomorrow.

Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to move through the area this
afternoon through Friday bringing near surface smoke at times
affecting air quality for all populations and visibility at
times. Otherwise, we continue to see high level smoke across the
area today. Further chances for near surface smoke end of the
weekend.

As we move into Friday and Saturday northwesterly flow remains, with
temperatures in the 70s. Another system moves out of the
northwesterly flow Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
bringing a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Saturday
afternoon and into Saturday evening. Main threat will be large hail
and damaging winds. This will be tied to the cold frontal passage.
Lingering forcing across the area on Sunday will help kick off
further rain and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures Sunday will be
cooler, with highs in the 60s.

The ridge out toward the western United States will start to move
east into the northern and central plains mid next week helping to
increase our temperatures. It will be fast moving and quickly
transition us into westerly to southwesterly flow. This will
increase the moisture across the area and our chances for upper
level systems. Chances for showers and storms will be possible as we
move into the later part of next week.

...Canadian Wildfire Smoke...

Over the International Border there is a pool of wildfire smoke that
is shifting slowly toward northern MN and NE ND this afternoon
through Friday evening. Its tied to a frontal boundary thats across
the Canadian border. Near surface smoke has been reported at times
in Pembina and Lake of the Woods counties with visibility reductions
to a few miles at times. Conditions have since improved, but HRRR
and RAP guidance wants to push the near surface smoke back into
northern MN and NE ND this afternoon through Friday evening. Highest
concentrations look to be in northern MN, but air quality will still
be impacted affecting all populations this afternoon through
tomorrow evening. High level smoke is currently working its way
through the area and will linger across the Dakotas and MN through
the weekend. Winds aloft on Sunday will be out of the north, which
will help bring down further Canadian wildfire smoke. How severe and
widespread the smoke will be is low in confidence.

...Severe Threat...

An upper level wave shifts through Canada and into the
Dakotas/Minnesota Saturday and Sunday bringing a trailing cold front
to the region. Ahead of this front, we have modest BL moisture, dew
points in the 40s to 50s, 25kts of shear, and MUCAPE reaching up to
2000 J/kg. Progression of the front puts it in eastern ND during the
mid to late afternoon and exiting northwestern MN by the late
evening/early overnight time period. Steep low level lapse rates,
with long skinny CAPE profiles indicate an isolated large hail and
damaging winds threat. Storms would start out as discrete, but
quickly go linear along the front as its moves through. Dry layer in
the mid to upper levels could hinder some of the development of the
thunderstorms. This will be dependent on how fast the front moves
through the area. Slower progression, the more organized the storms
can get (producing the threat for severe thunderstorms), while a
faster progression would yield lower chances for severe
thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor the severe weather
chances as we progress into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Becoming a little less certain lately is smoke will move far
enough south to impact BJI and TVF tonight but overall decided
threat was low enough to leave it out. Rain continues to fall at
FAR and BJI though VIS > 6 means minimal impacts. Winds light
and Variable tonight becoming SW to SE across the area by late
morning (15z to 18z) with gusts up to 20kts in the DVL area
otherwise sustained winds near 10kts for the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...TT