280
FXUS63 KFGF 112326
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A few storms may
  produce small hail and gusty winds to 50 mph.

- Conditional risk for hail in the far southern Red River Valley
  into west-central Minnesota Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Broad longwave trough remains in Canada, with the base of the
trough over the north-central tier of the CONUS. This places our
region under zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. At the
surface/lower levels, several reinforcing cold fronts will
continue to filter in seasonably cool continental air masses in
from interior Canada. This is also allowing numerous showers and
scattered storms this afternoon, with a conditional chance for
storms Friday afternoon as well.

Relatively cool and windy conditions continue through the
weekend - again, owing to the reinforcing cold fronts with the
upper trough slow to progress eastward toward Hudson Bay region.
Some ensemble guidance even retrogrades the upper trough back
into central Canadian Prairie Provinces mid to late next week.
This would continue to promote relatively cooler and breezier
conditions amid zonal/northwesterly flow aloft, although
slightly moderating temperatures toward average as air masses
are originating from deep interior Canada, but rather Canadian
Rockies as well as the northern US Rockies.

...This afternoon`s storm hazards...

Relatively cold temperatures aloft will allow for storms this
afternoon to be capable of producing small hail up to pea sized,
in addition to sub-severe wind gusts up to 50 mph. Both of these
hazards are relatively more likely to occur in eastern ND into
the Red River Valley compared to Minnesota. Otherwise, lightning
will be the main hazard.

With instability and lift driven by daytime heating, around or
just after sunset is when this activity is expected to start
diminishing.

...Friday conditional risk for hail...

There is a signal in guidance of a low amplitude shortwave
impulse moving through the base of the long wave trough over the
Dakotas into Minnesota. At the surface, ascent may be localized
through convergence near a west-east boundary near the tri-
state area. Ensemble and high resolution guidance also
reinvigorates instability near this boundary amid strong
westerly winds aloft. While moisture is meager, weak instabilty
and strong shear could allow some isolated low topped
supercells tomorrow afternoon in the southern Red River Valley
into west-central Minnesota with attendant hail risk. Given
supercellular mode, hail could be to the size of golf balls if
this scenario develops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Spotty -TSRA is slowly winding down across the region. Once
showers end and and the sun sets, any remaining westerly gusts
will drop off. Thereafter for Friday, winds will pick back up
out of the Northwest, becoming gusty by the afternoon. Clouds
bases will remain VFR throughout the TAF period. There is some
uncertainty if a cumulus deck ceiling forms Friday afternoon
around 5,000 AGL. At this time, predictability was too low to
include a ceiling in the TAF, so instead added a SCT deck.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Rafferty