818
FXUS63 KFGF 252328
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
628 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall is forecast late Sunday into Monday. There
  is a 70 percent chance for soaking rainfall of 1 inch or more
  within southeast North Dakota into Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...Synopsis...

Stalled and stacked upper level low continues to remain
stationary in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. This
places our region under southwest flow aloft and relatively
cooler temperatures aloft. Embedded midlevel waves continue to
propagate within this southwesterly flow aloft bringing
intervals of rain into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
including a low to medium chance for light rain in west-central
MN tonight as well as a soaking rainfall late Sunday into
Monday.

This is also bringing drier air mass into the region from the
west as well as elevated winds. The combination of relative
humidity values into the 20s and gusts into the 20-30 mph range
is driving near critical fire weather conditions in portions of
eastern ND and northwest MN - more notably where mostly sunny
skies have been present. Additional near critical fire weather
conditions may develop Sunday in portions of northwest MN as
relative humidity values dip back into the 20s; although, winds
are not anticipated to be as strong as today.

Getting into next week, ensemble guidance agrees in
northwesterly flow aloft as the stalled upper low in Canada
finally exits northeast deeper into interior Canada. This will
usher in an extended period of dry conditions with near to
slightly below average temperatures.

...Soaking rainfall late Sunday into Monday...

As the stacked upper low departs, a more robust shortwave trough
will move out of the Central Plains into Upper Midwest. This
wave will tap into richer moisture from the south as well as
some instability aloft feeding into the heart of the wave. This
will bring widespread rainfall into portions of eastern ND and
MN, including a soaking rainfall of at least 1 inch Sunday
overnight into Monday.

While there is high confidence in this occurring, there remains
some disagreement on which locations in our area will exceed 1
inches. As of now, west-central to north-centtral MN currently
hold relatively highest chances for 1 or more inches of
rainfall, around 70% chance. Northeast ND into far northwest MN
hold relatively lowest chance. Latest CAMs reveal locally
highest rainfall amounts should sit in the 2-3 inch range, and
will be dependent upon locations experiencing steady rainfall
overnight Sunday as well as into Monday. There is a 30% chance
for this to occur in our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN sites. West-southwest winds gusting
20-25kt are currently decreasing and CU (5-7kft agl) are
clearing as the sun sets early in the TAF period, with light
winds and only mid to higher level cloud cover (10-25kft agl)
through the rest of the night. As stronger low pressure passes
to the north of the region and south of the region high pressure
should lead to lighter/variable winds by late evening/early
overnight.

Another low pressure system builds to the south of the region
and will bring gradually shifting/increasing winds from the
east-southeast Sunday. This also brings increasing chances for
MVFR ceilings and rain chances in southeast ND (including KFAR)
and west central MN after the current valid 00Z TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR