130
FXUS63 KFGF 312054
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
354 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air quality and visibility impacts will continue this evening
  through at least Saturday morning due to wildfire smoke.

- A potentially active pattern is supported next week, with
  showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast. Strong
  storms could bring impacts, especially from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...Synopsis...

Progressive upper jet prevails today through Saturday across the
central CONUS. Ridging prevails at the H5 level, with high pressure
continuing across the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer Friday afternoon as the ridge axis moves across the area;
however, with the H2 jet in place, the warmest air will be confined
to the southern CONUS. Heading into Sunday and Monday, upper flow
becomes more progressive, with a tendency towards southwest flow
Tuesday into Wednesday. Return flow will be quite weak; however
moisture values are expected to increase enough to allow instability
to build heading into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precip chances
increase gradually through the forecast period, with showers and
thunderstorms being possible each day starting Saturday and
persisting through much of next week. The probability for strong
storms starts quite low on Saturday, but will progressively increase
from Sunday onward.

...Smoke Continues to Impact Air Quality...

High pressure, and weak surface flow, will continue to support
pooling of wildfire smoke across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Impacts to air quality and visibility are likely to
continue today through at least Saturday morning before surface flow
increases and starts to advect smoke away from portions of the area.

...Active Pattern Possible Next Week...

Zonal progressive H5 flow will give way to weak southwest H5 flow as
we head into Monday and Tuesday. At the 700mb level, shortwave
activity will traverse the flow pattern, bringing periods of forcing
through an increasingly unstable environment. SBCAPE values on
Monday show about a 50-60 percent chance of reaching 1000 J/Kg, with
chances increasing to near 90 percent by Tuesday afternoon. This
trend continues into Wednesday and Thursday, with instability
expected to remain somewhat high through the end of the week. With
this in place, shortwave timing becomes the primary focus and will
ultimately determine the potential coverage of storms, as well as if
strong to severe storms are supported. At this time, the mention of
at least a few strong storms is supported.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions prevail this afternoon as near surface
smoke is intermittently reducing visibility into the 3SM to 5SM
range. Conditions are not expected to change much heading into
the evening and overnight hours, with generally mostly clear
skies and various intensities of near surface wildfire smoke.
This afternoon, KBJI, KGFK and KTVF look to have the highest
probability for visibility impacts as satellite data shows a
band of very thick smoke extending southward out of Manitoba and
into the northern Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch