442
FXUS63 KFGF 210530
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and blowing snow will bring advisory level impacts
  to parts of the area, especially from the Red River Valley
  westward. Accumulations will be light; however, wind gusts
  could reach up to 45 mph.

- Dangerously cold wind chills of 30 below to 60 below are
  expected Thursday morning through Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Mostly cloudy skies continue with the lowest clouds across
southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Beneath this
cloud deck, falling snow has been observed but impacts to
visibility have been nonimpactful (generally 7-10 miles
visibility). This will continue through the overnight. We don`t
expect winds to start picking up until after 6 AM tomorrow, so
blowing snow impacts shouldn`t arise until after then.

UPDATE
Issued at 656 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Intermittent flurries will continue this evening but impacts
will remain limited as visibility reductions and accumulations
will be minimal. As such, no meaningful weather impacts should
occur overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow continues to bring an active clipper pattern to the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A deep, Arctic air mass will dive
southward out of Manitoba on Thursday, with a preceding cold front
Wednesday. Light snow and blowing snow are expected Wednesday
through at least the first half of the day, with strong northwest
winds persisting into the evening hours. Wind chill values will
plummet into the 30s below zero to 40s below zero, with colder wind
chills following on Friday and into the Weekend. A generally dry
pattern is expected from Thursday onward through early next week,
with minimal chances for new snow. It is worth noting, however, that
with this cold of an air mass, flurries will be intermittently
possible.

...Winter Impacts late Tonight and Wednesday...

Light snow is expected late tonight and into the early morning hours
on Wednesday. CAMs are in good agreement in the development of fast-
moving, but moderate, snowfall along and ahead of an Arctic front.
Accumulations of around an inch are supported, with about a 20
percent chance of snow greater than one inch. The heavier amounts
will occur under locally heavier bands of convectively driven snow,
with little confidence in exactly where each of these bands will
form. Winds shift to the northwest Wednesday morning, with ongoing
light snow that is likely to coincide with the morning commute. As
such, reduced visibility is likely at times, especially in areas
where the heavier snow bands form. The highest chances are expected
from the Red River Valley westward. After the main bands of snow
move to the southeast, additional scattered snow showers remain
possible through the afternoon, with some support for HCRs through
early evening.

...Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Thursday Through Sunday...

Frigid, Arctic, air settles into the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest following Wednesday`s cold front. Surface temperatures
plummet Wednesday night into Thursday, with continued CAA through
the day Thursday. Overnight lows fall into the teens below zero
Wednesday night, then keep falling through the day on Thursday,
settling into the 20s below to 30s below zero Thursday night and
Friday morning. Wind chills are expected to fall into the range of
40 below zero to 60 below zero by early Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the overnight with
brief periods of MVFR ceilings expected. Snow will move from
northwest to southeast beginning through 18z. With winds
shifting and increasing from the northwest, visibility
reductions to MVFR, IFR, and LIFR can be expected, with a low
chance for VLIFR visibilities. VLIFR visibilities will mainly
occur when snow is falling and combines with blowing snow.
Widespread falling snow should come to an end late morning,
however the development of afternoon snow showers is expected
and may provide another chance in the afternoon for similar
conditions. This will come to an end towards the evening hours,
but MVFR ceilings will continue to persist.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon
     CST Thursday for NDZ024-027>030-038-039.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
     morning for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Wednesday night to noon CST
     Thursday for NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon
     CST Thursday for MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027-028.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
     morning for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Wednesday night to noon CST
     Thursday for MNZ004>009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux