129
FXUS62 KFFC 210705
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

 - A high impact winter weather event is anticipated in northern
   Georgia this weekend.

 - Significant impacts to travel are anticipated over the weekend,
   and power outages may occur.

 - Now is the time to review your families emergency plan and make
   preparations for hazardous weather.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Surface high continues to slide eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic
coast as the morning begins. With light winds and mostly clear skies
under the influence of the high, strong radiational cooling is
ongoing once again. Low temperatures this morning will largely be in
the low to mid 20s across the area. On the back side of the exiting
surface high, low level winds will shift to southerly today.
Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave and associated cold front will move
from central Great Plains towards the Southeast. Aside from high
temperatures peaking in the 40s in the mountains, highs this
afternoon will rise into the mid 50s in north Georgia upper 50s to
low 60s in central Georgia. In spite of the climbing temperatures,
gradual moisture advection over the course of the day should inhibit
dangerous fire weather conditions. A few locations could see
relative humidity values dropping to 25% or just below, but is
expected to be no more than an hour or two at this time.

Tonight, the frontal boundary will move from the Tennessee Valley
region towards north Georgia, with light showers anticipated to
begin in the far northern tier after sunset. With low temperatures
on Thursday being in the mid 30s to low 40s, chances for wintry
precipitation in the short term will remain minimal. On Thursday,
the front will advance southward into the forecast area, eventually
stalling near the I-85 corridor as it loses support with the parent
shortwave moving away to the northeast. Scattered to numerous
showers will linger around the vicinity of the front throughout the
day on Thursday, but will largely remain light. Rainfall
accumulations through the short term period are expected to be less
than 0.5" with highest amounts roughly north of I-85. Highs on
Thursday will be limited to the low 50s in areas north of where the
cold front stalls and in the upper 50s to near 70 in areas to the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday into Friday will
have our first push of rainfall as a quick shortwave pushes through
the main trough over the eastern CONUS. QPF amounts are expected
between 0.5-1" over northern Georgia. the precipitations should
remain in liquid form but some higher elevations of the North GA
mountains may see some mixed precip Fri morning. No accumulations
expected. Fri night into Sat morning will be the beginning of the
main wintery precipitation.

Saturday into Sunday we will begin to see the overall troughing
pattern begin to dive south into the southeastern U.S. while the low
pressure system currently off the Pacific begins to push inland.
This setup creates an atmospheric river from the Mexican Pacific
coast, across the entire southern U.S., and out across to the
Carolinas beginning Fri afternoon. The timing of how this Pacific low
pressure system moves is going to in turn factor into how long we
are expecting potential impacts. Current timing has this system
moving rapidly across the south states through the weekend and up
the eastern seaboard and pulling out of GA Monday morning/early
afternoon.

Some things to talk about with this event. This is shaping up to be
a potentially high impact event with moderate to major impacts. With
this amount of model consistency in the overall setup we are gaining
confidence that this could be a long duration event as well. With
initiation as early as Saturday afternoon and wintry precip looking
to extend into Sunday night/Mon morning. At this point we are
confident that wintry precip will affect north Georgia for areas
along and north of I-20. The area south of I-20 down to Macon and
Columbus are a little more uncertain but models are consistently
forecasting wintry precip for this area as well. A few factors into
how much/what type of wintry precip we receive are the influence of
the wedge expected to take shape and then how far north the front
pushes. When it comes to the wedge, current thinking is that snow
will be the main precip type for far north Georgia and wintry
mix/freezing rain will become the main concern for the remainder of
the north Georgia including the ATL/AHN areas. There is still a
decent shot that we see this freezing rain transition to more of a
snow event as we get into late Sunday and Monday but that is still
uncertainty.

Focusing on the probabilistic information for now.
--> 40-50% chance for 0.5" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.
--> 25-30% chance for 0.75" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.
--> 15-20% chance for 1" or greater of ice accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 30-45% chance for 2" or greater of snow accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

For now the main thing to focus on is being prepared for a
potentially high impact event this weekend. We will likely see more
changes over the coming days but please make sure you have a plan to
endure this event which could include power outages.

Once this system exits the area Monday, a good portion of north GA
will continue to see impacts as Temps Mon are not expected to get to
much above freezing. Any accumulations that linger will most likely
continue through Tue when temps are expected to get up into the
upper 30s to near 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the daytime, with cloud
ceilings around 10 kft developing around 22Z. Ceilings will
gradually lower through the overnight hours, down to 3.5-5 kft by
05Z Thursday morning. Winds will be light and variable during the
early morning, coming up on the SE side at 5-9 kts after 15Z and
through the remainder of the day. Winds will diminish after sunset
and shift to SW after 05Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  37  52  42 /   0  20  40  60
Atlanta         54  42  52  44 /   0  40  50  60
Blairsville     49  33  52  36 /  10  50  40  50
Cartersville    54  39  52  41 /  10  60  50  60
Columbus        59  42  62  46 /   0  20  40  40
Gainesville     51  39  53  43 /   0  30  40  60
Macon           58  39  65  44 /   0  10  30  30
Rome            59  41  55  40 /  20  60  40  50
Peachtree City  55  40  54  43 /   0  40  50  60
Vidalia         62  43  70  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...King