387
FXUS62 KFFC 312001
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
401 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Key Messages:

 - A Heat Advisory continues for central and eastern Georgia
   through 8 PM this evening, followed by another Heat Advisory
   from 11 AM to 8 PM on Friday.

 - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
   today and Friday. A few severe storms will be possible on
   Friday, which could be capable of producing strong downburst
   winds.

High temperatures this afternoon are expected to range from 92-98
degrees along and south of the I-20 corridor. Combined with
dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values are forecast to once
again reach 105 in portions of central and east Georgia. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM EDT as a result. Scattered
diurnally-driven thunderstorms have begun to develop over the last
couple of hours. This afternoon and evening, broad mid and upper
level troughing will dig southward into the Tennessee Valley region,
which will provide some additional lift, allowing for more numerous
storms across the north and west portions of the forecast area. With
SBCAPE values increasing to between 3000-3500 J/kg, a few of these
storms could become strong and capable of producing frequent
lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with precipitable water
values between 1.8 and 2.2 inches, stronger storms could also
produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding if strong
storms occur over a common area.

The axis of the trough will continue to advance towards the forecast
area on Friday. An associated cold front will push into the far
northern tier during the morning. The progression of the front will
be slow, and it is not expected to reach the I-20 corridor before
the peak heating hours. As such, highs are forecast to rise into the
low to mid 90s once again. Increasing atmospheric moisture ahead of
the frontal system will also nudge dewpoints and PWATs higher on
Friday. As such, heat index values reaching 105 degrees will warrant
one more Heat Advisory in portions of east-central Georgia (along
and south of a rough line from Cordele to Macon to Washington),
which will be in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM. More widespread
thunderstorms are expected on Friday afternoon due to a combination
of forcing ahead of the cold front and strong destabilization (2000-
3000 J/kg) with daytime heating. In spite of weak 0-1 km shear less
than 20 kts, strong SBCAPE, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and PWATs over 2
inches will support strong, precip-loaded downdrafts and cold pool
development. This should combine with the ambient conditions to
produce several loosely organized storm clusters, which could a few
severe thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 60 mph. While the severe
thunderstorm threat will largely be in the afternoon and evening,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the cold
front overnight as the front continues to move southward through the
area.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Key Messages:

  - Sweet relief, temperatures this weekend below normal with highs
    reaching only the low to mid 80s. Lows in the 60s possible.

  - Shower and thunderstorm chances high nearly every day, peaking
    each afternoon.

Some very much welcomed relief this weekend as the cold front
settles somewhere over central Georgia Saturday. High temperatures
will likely struggle to get much higher than 80 north of the
front. Areas south of the front will see temps up into the mid
80s. Lows will be moderated slightly by moist conditions and
widespread precipitation chances, however we could still see the
first 60s in a while.

Precipitation chances will be higher through the weekend with the
stationary frontal boundary somewhere over central Georgia. The
greatest precip will likely be focused along the front, however
exactly where this may be remains in question. Several days of
locally heavy rainfall could pose a flood risk, however this will be
dependent on training convection. Speaking of convection, models
seem adamant that widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
will be the main mode. However, given the cooler conditions
thunderstorm chances will probably be lower than indicated by NBM.
Would recommend holding for CAMs to evaluate extended lightning
risk.

Conditions dry out slightly through next week with PoPs falling more
to 30-40% peaks each afternoon and alongside quick moving and weak
shortwaves. Temperatures could see a slightly higher diurnal swing up
to the mid 80s and back down to the upper 60s by mid week.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Scattered convection has begun to develop across portions of north
GA, and is likely to increase in coverage as it spreads southward. A
TEMPO for TSRA has been introduced from 18-22Z at RYY, 19-23Z at
FTY/PDK, and 20-00Z at ATL. Precipitation will gradually diminish
after sunset, coming to an end by 04-05Z. Conditions are expected to
be primarily VFR this afternoon, with a scattered cu field between
030-040 across north and central GA. Prevailing winds will be on the
W side through the period, between 5-10 kts throughout the day and
decreasing to 5 kts or less overnight. Patchy fog and low clouds may
develop after 09Z, though it is looking to be most likely across the
northern tier at this time.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing and placement of storms and potential
for overnight low clouds.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  71  80 /  20  40  50  60
Atlanta         75  92  73  81 /  30  50  40  70
Blairsville     68  87  66  76 /  30  60  30  80
Cartersville    73  94  71  84 /  30  40  20  60
Columbus        76  93  75  89 /  30  60  40  80
Gainesville     73  93  71  79 /  30  40  40  60
Macon           75  94  73  86 /  20  50  50  80
Rome            72  91  71  85 /  30  40  10  60
Peachtree City  73  92  71  82 /  30  50  40  80
Vidalia         76  96  74  87 /  30  50  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ027-036>039-
049>051-058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ039-049>051-
059>062-071>076-080>086-093>098-105>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...King