022
FXUS62 KFFC 120553
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Heat will continue to build from Friday into the weekend with
    heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s, potentially
    exceeding 105 in some areas by Saturday.

  - A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in
    far north Georgia Friday afternoon and evening.

  - A stormier weather pattern returns from late weekend into
    early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Hot, humid conditions will remain prevalent on Friday as
temperatures and heat index values will continue to creep upward.
For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, only isolated
showers and a couple thunderstorms are expected as overall coverage
remains suppressed by ridging and a stout dry layer at 500 mb.
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values from the
upper 90s to low 100s can be expected through the next several
hours. Temperatures will not cool off all that much tonight, largely
ranging through the 70s, with Friday morning forecast lows at or
within a degree of the daily warm minimum temperature record at the
four main climate sites (Atlanta, Athens, Columbus, and Macon).

The pattern does begin to shift somewhat on Friday as a trough
swinging through the Great Lakes sends a cold front southeastward.
The bulk of the dynamics and support for strong/severe thunderstorms
will remain farther north and northeast of Georgia. Still, plenty of
afternoon/evening instability in north Georgia (forecast SBCAPE 2000-
3000+ J/kg will support the development and maintenance of scattered
thunderstorms. CAMs support the development of convection across
TN/AL during the afternoon with storms propagating into far north
Georgia from late afternoon into Friday evening. Strong downburst
wind gusts and perhaps a couple of instances of hail would be
possible in these storms. In general, coverage should wane and
eventually dissipate gradually after sunset as it pushes
southeastward toward the I-85 corridor.

Outside of the threat for thunderstorms, temperatures will again
notch higher on Friday. More widespread heat index values in the 100-
105 range are likely. A few spots will likely near the 105 threshold
for Heat Advisory criteria in Middle Georgia, though the isolated,
transient nature of 105 values will preclude any Heat Advisory
issuance for Friday at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Wetter Pattern Returns from Sunday into Next Week:

We will kick off the weekend with another hot and humid day on
Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index
values peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s. The ridge of high
pressure over the region will finally start to wane during the day,
allowing for increased convective activity. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening, with
enough moisture and instability to support a few strong to severe
storms. The primary threat would be damaging winds, in addition to
frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy rains.

On Sunday, the ridge will break down further as a potent shortwave
dives across the Midwest and sends a front into the Southeast. This
will be the start of a period of wetter weather lasting through the
middle next week, as longwave troughing establishes over most of the
eastern US and flow over Georgia turns out of west to southwest.
Moisture surging in off the Gulf will bring PWAT values up to around
2" by Monday, supporting numerous to widespread showers and storms
through at least Tuesday. At the minimum, this amount of moisture in
the atmosphere would create potential flash flood concerns with any
afternoon convection. If stronger forcing came into play, which some
guidance is showing with approaching fronts/shortwaves, that would
only increase the flash flood risk. Severe weather may also become a
risk, depending on the timing and location of any stronger forcing
moving across the region. While it will remain quite humid, the
amount of cloud cover will likely knock temperatures down a bit from
what we see this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR expected through TAF period. FEW to SCT cu field will build in
during the afternoon hours Friday in and around TAF sites. Winds
will be from the W to WNW at 5-10 kts. Small chance of some SHRA
or TSRA impacting sites during evening to early overnight Friday,
but chances are too small at this time to warrant inclusion for
PROB30. No other impacts expected at this time.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium-high precip chances tomorrow, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  73  92 /  10  20  20  50
Atlanta         75  92  74  89 /  20  20  20  70
Blairsville     67  86  67  83 /  30  30  20  80
Cartersville    74  91  73  88 /  20  20  30  80
Columbus        76  96  75  93 /  10  30  30  50
Gainesville     73  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  60
Macon           75  95  74  93 /  20  30  40  60
Rome            73  90  72  87 /  20  30  40  80
Peachtree City  74  93  73  90 /  10  30  20  70
Vidalia         78  98  76  96 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Lusk