438
FXUS64 KEWX 121832
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
132 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain free with slightly above average temperatures mid to late week

- Increasing humidity with elevated heat indices and returning
  rain/storm chances entering early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mid-level ridging will be in control over the state for the short
term while surface high pressure moves eastward late today into
tonight. The highs this afternoon should be near average under
mostly sunny skies. Light easterly winds will start to become
southeasterly this evening into Wednesday. With the afternoon dew
points in the 50s to low 60s, this should keep the humidity with
peak daytime heating in the tolerable range. Wednesday will be
slightly warmer compared to today with many seeing highs closer to
the 90 degree mark. The overnight lows are expected to remain
seasonable in the low to mid 60s through the short term. There is
potential for some nocturnal cloud cover and patchy morning fog
across the coastal plains where the dew points are the highest
during each night. Elsewhere, skies likely stay mostly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Late this week would see the mid-level ridging start to gradually
flatten and for the low-level southeasterly flow to increase to a
more moderate but persistent speed with surface winds at 10 to 20
mph and higher gusts. This flow helps advect and maintain greater
low-level moisture (dew points) across the region with time. On
Thursday afternoon, the humidity may be lowest of the week but
expect for this to change Friday into the weekend and beyond into
early next week. Thursday into early Sunday looks to remain rain
free with capping and generally a lack of enough lift from any
passing subtle shortwaves or with the dryline in West Texas. This
changes late Sunday through early next week, with a more defined
trough developing across the Southwestern CONUS and a stronger
southwest flow aloft over Texas compared to the lighter west-
southwest counterpart from late this weekend into Saturday. This
coupled with a rich low-level moisture profile with the dew points
that climb into 70s, to even near 80 degrees across the coastal
plains will support medium (30-60%) chances for rain and storm
activity starting after sunset Sunday. As common for this time of
year, we`ll have to analyze the capping inversion and any other
mesoscale features as we approach this time frame.

Temperatures late this week into early next week trends slightly
above average with highs ranging from the mid 80s over the Hill
Country to the mid 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. The I-35
corridor will mainly trend within the upper 80s to low 90s. With
arrival of that very humid and more oppressive air this weekend
through early next week, the peak heat indices become elevated
across the region outside of the Hill Country, with indices that
peak from the upper 90s to in excess of 100 degrees. Overnight
temperatures become very warm as well with the morning lows only
dipping into the mid to upper 70s for most. May even see a few
locations across the coastal plains struggle to fall below 80
degrees at times. Cloud coverage will be greatest overnight into
each morning before skies become mostly to partly cloudy each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Very little change to the going forecast as VFR ceilings and winds
generally less than 10 kts out of the east and east-southeast are
expected today. Winds will drop off to less than 3 kts at AUS,
SAT, and SSF by 03Z tonight and remain light and variable. Expect
a return to southeasterly winds around 8-12 kts by mid-morning
Wednesday at DRT, with other sites remaining light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  90  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  89  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             62  90  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...MMM