818
FXUS64 KEWX 060712
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
212 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Increasingly dry and hot weather expected today and Saturday.

- Heat headlines may be needed Saturday as heat indices climb into
  100-112 degree range.

Latest GOES 19 water vapor imagery shows decaying thunderstorms over
west Texas and the southern Edwards Plateau early this morning.
Convection will remain just out of reach the next two days as mid-
level ridging amplifies over south Texas. This will set the stage
for a hot a dry period through the weekend. NWS HeatRisk will
increase to Moderate to Major on Saturday as heat indices climb
above 105, particularly along and east of the I-35 Corridor and over
the Rio Grande Plains. Heat Advisories may be needed for some
locations Saturday afternoon. Expect air temperatures to top out in
the mid to upper 90s to around 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Key messages:

- Heat Advisory likely for parts of the area Sunday and Monday

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday Through Thursday

The well advertised heat wave peaks on Sunday with Subtropical Ridge
on top of a lower level thermal ridge. A southerly lower level flow,
poor mixing with the drier air aloft, along with moist soils and
vegetation will allow for elevated afternoon heat index values.
Heat Advisory level heat index values are expected along and east of
the I-35 corridor, as well as across the Winter Garden. As a result,
an Advisory is likely across those areas.

The Subtropical Ridge drifts to the west while the lower level
thermal ridge weakens slightly on Monday. While temperatures and
heat index values decrease slightly most areas, Heat Advisory level
heat index values remain closer to the Coastal Plains and across the
Winter Garden. An outflow boundary from storms over northern Texas
may move into the Hill Country and our Central Texas counties to
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms there and provide some
extra "cooling" Monday afternoon.

Upper level shortwaves, surface outflow boundaries, and possible
cold front interacting with a moist airmass maintain chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday.
Moderate instability and wind shear indicate a potential for some
strong to possibly severe storms. An unseasonably moist airmass with
moisture pooling along the boundaries and cells repeating over the
same areas also indicate a potential for locally heavy rains. Will
trend toward the blended guidances for POPs. However, we expect to be
fine tuned them as mesoscale influences take hold. The increased
clouds and periods of rain "cool" off temperatures to near average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Expect MVFR ceilings to develop quickly after 07Z at all sites. Low
stratus at about 1500 feet-2000 feet can be expected through mid-
morning before clouds break as southerly winds increase to 10-15 kts.
VFR ceilings are expected until late Friday night/early Saturday
morning when low stratus and MVFR returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...04
Aviation...MMM