Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
791 FXUS64 KEWX 031142 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 542 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average temperatures remainder of this week, trending slightly cooler this weekend into early next week - Unsettled weather pattern develops mid week with rain and storm chances through early next week; stronger storms and locally heavy rain may be possible && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Today will be similar to the last few days with morning low clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. Unfortunately, the low clouds will result in poor to non existent viewing of the lunar eclipse across most areas during totality between 5 AM and 6 AM CST this morning. However, parts of the Rio Grande where the low clouds reach the last may be able to see at least the start of totality. On Wednesday, a mid/upper level trough passes well to our north over the Central Plains sending a cold front south into Texas that stalls just to our north of our area by evening. Much of the forcing remains to our north. However, a deep lower/mid level moist layer will be in place with the front nearby. Patchy drizzle and light rain early in the day grows upscale to showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening as the airmass become more unstable due to heating. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1,500 J/Kg and steep mid level lapse rates of 7.3 C/km which indicate a potential of strong to severe storms across the eastern Hill Country into our Central Texas counties, including the Austin metro area. SPC has a marginal (1 of 5) risk for those areas. Due to the lower level thermal ridge, little or no changes in the temperature trends are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Forcing wanes on Thursday as the front dissipates while lifting back to the north with showers and thunderstorms becoming more isolated. A mid/upper level trough moving toward the Four Corners on Thursday splits on Friday with one part moving to the east over the Plains with the other part moving to the southwest to off Baja California where it remains as a closed low this weekend into early next week. The Plains part of the trough sends a cold front south into Texas, that may stall across our area Saturday night. Then, spokes of energy rotating around the low off Baja along with the stalled front maintain forcing on Sunday into Monday. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Friday through Monday. The latest ensemble guidance shows a 50 to 75% chance for at least 1 inch rainfall for most of our area with a potential for multiple inches across some areas. Moderate instability and shear as shown in forecast soundings may allow for a few strong to severe storms. The widespread cloudiness and areas of rain along with very weak cold advection behind the front may result in "cooler", though still above average temperatures this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 The Austin and San Antonio airports are MVFR and will remain that way through the morning. Ceilings will spread to DRT within the next couple of hours. All terminals will rebound to VFR by around noon. Low clouds will return late tonight. Winds will continue to be from the south to southeast in Austin and San Antonio and from the east-southeast at DRT. Expect speeds to increase during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 68 84 67 / 0 10 70 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 85 66 / 0 10 70 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 65 84 66 / 0 10 70 30 Burnet Muni Airport 84 65 80 65 / 0 10 70 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 66 86 66 / 0 10 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 66 83 65 / 0 10 70 30 Hondo Muni Airport 88 63 87 63 / 0 10 50 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 65 86 66 / 0 10 70 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 67 85 67 / 0 0 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 67 85 67 / 0 10 60 40 Stinson Muni Airport 88 68 87 68 / 0 10 60 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...05