Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
259 FXUS64 KEWX 311809 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly Friday and Saturday with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible - Near seasonable late July-early August temperatures/heat indices && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The subtropical ridge slowly drifts west today allowing an inverted trough to shift west towards the Texas coast. Most shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature should stay east of the area, though a few stray storms could make it into the coastal plains later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise, hot temperatures continue with many locations forecast to reach just over the 100 degree mark. Increasing moisture builds into the area today and tonight which will lead to an increase in heat index values as well. Better chances for rain come tomorrow as a weak cold front enters Texas and drifts south towards our area during the day. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to develop in the afternoon, with the most favored locations for storms in the northern half of the CWA, including the Hill Country. Above normal precipitable water values return to the area by Friday evening, so any storm will be capable of producing heavy downpours accompanied with gusty wind. HREF guidance indicates an isolated spot or two could pick up around 1-3 inches, but overall expect most locations that see rain to see lesser totals. Temperatures remain hot tomorrow with heat index values from the mid 90s up to around 108 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Rain chances continue Saturday as a weak front remains just northeast of the area. Scattered showers and storms are forecast across most of the area except along the Rio Grande mainly in the afternoon and evening. Heavy downpours and gusty wind will be possible with any activity. Convection will die down around sunset with drier weather than in the forecast Sunday through the upcoming week as the subtropical ridge expands east. A shortwave may dive south along the periphery of the ridge Monday which could reintroduce some rain chances into our eastern areas, but for now kept the low 20 PoPs Monday confined east of Highway 77. Otherwise, only some low rain chances remain in our far eastern areas Sunday and Tuesday with guidance showing the bulk of any additional precipitation further east. High temperatures remain near seasonable levels in the extended forecast with elevated heat indices. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Few to no concern in the forecast period as winds should remain less than 10 kts and skies remain VFR. The only thing of note is keeping watch on the wind direction changes as winds shift each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 78 101 77 98 / 0 20 20 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 101 77 98 / 0 20 20 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 76 98 / 0 20 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 76 98 75 95 / 0 20 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 101 77 97 / 0 20 30 40 Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 76 99 / 0 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 101 76 99 / 0 20 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 99 76 97 / 10 20 20 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 101 78 99 / 0 20 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 77 100 / 0 20 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...27 Aviation...MMM