611
FOUS30 KWBC 261937
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Nov 26 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...

A moderately strong atmospheric river continues to weaken across
central to southern CA as a dry airmass associated with an
approaching northern-stream shortwave erodes the main IVT axis over
the region. However, the favorable orientation of the subtropical
moisture plume and IVT could still favor brief periods of
.25-.50"/hour rainfall rates in the foothills of the southern
Sierra Nevada through this afternoon per the 6z HREF. Given the wet
antecedent conditions across the area, these additional rains are
expected to maintain an isolated flooding threat in the southern
Sierra Nevada before the atmospheric river wanes tonight.

Asherman/Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison/Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt