Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
984 FXUS64 KEPZ 052326 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 526 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1146 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026 - Breezy southwest winds 20 to 25 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. Patchy blowing dust along the International Border. A few light rain showers across Southwest New Mexico through this afternoon. - Mostly dry through the weekend after today. Warmer weather will arrive later this week. Lowland temperatures rising to the lower 90s by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026 Upper low just SW of Las Vegas this morning with strong sub-tropical jet just ahead of it lying SW-NE across central Arizona. Broad band of sub-tropical moisture ahead of this system over the entire CWA. This plume is mostly mid/high level moisture but is slowly moistening down. A few showers possible late morning and afternoon, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley as the Pacific surface front pushes through. Some sprinkles possible further east with the front. Winds will pick up today, increasing from the west around 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph this afternoon. Confidence low on level of impact; unfortunately high cloud coverage will likely obscure satellite view of any plumes. Low lifts out across northern New Mexico as an open trough by early Wednesday morning, but main positively tilted long wave trough over the western US then breaks off low near the norther Baja Wednesday morning. Meanwhile a continental cool front lies nearly stationary across NE New Mexico. Disturbance aloft from the northern Rockies quickly drops down to Colorado Wednesday afternoon and phases in with the aforementioned long wave trough. This will finally give the continental front its push and moves to our area Wednesday night as a backdoor front. Models show wind shift making it all the way out to the Arizona border by Thursday morning. Very little cold advection; in fact 850mb temps change very little from Wednesday to Thursday. A brief gusty period (25-30 mph) possible Thursday morning with this front. Looking further out...aforementioned Baja low tracks slowly eastward across northern Mexico; over the Sonoran Desert Thursday and the Chihuahuan Desert Friday. GFS/ECMWF both place the low near the Big Bend Friday afternoon, with the other models lagging further southwest. Wouldn`t rule out a stray shower over west Texas zones Friday, but not reflected in grids yet. Otherwise upper ridge builds along the west coast into the weekend with dry northwest flow and temperatures warming to well above normal (5-10 degrees). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026 Our gusty winds today will continue into the evening hours. At most locations the wind gusts will drop off a little before midnight but at KELP, the gusty winds could linger past midnight. More low end wind gusts are expected on Wednesday afternoon. The winds on Wednesday will be less than what we saw today. Lots of high clouds today and even some low and mid clouds, but all the clouds will continue to push off to the east and we will have unlimited ceilings through the overnight hours and through the day on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026 Not much in the way of fire concerns after today. Gusty winds this afternoon will elevate fire conditions some, but min humidities remain well above 15% threshold. No other significant winds expected, though expect sharp wind shifts to east/northeast Thursday morning and again Sunday morning. A few showers possible today, though wetting rain chances pretty low. No other precip expected through this weekend. Min RH: Lowlands 18-25% this afternoon, then 8-15% Wednesday through Sunday. Mountains 30-45% this afternoon, then 12-23% Wednesday through Sunday. Vent rates very good-excellent this afternoon through Sunday, except Thursday at good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 56 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 46 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 48 75 45 76 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 53 30 56 / 10 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 47 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 66 41 69 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 45 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 73 43 77 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 56 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 50 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 47 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 66 33 67 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 37 64 34 66 / 10 0 0 10 Timberon 37 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 33 69 35 70 / 0 0 10 10 Hillsboro 44 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 77 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 68 35 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 38 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 74 39 79 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 33 69 36 74 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 40 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 43 74 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 41 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice