904
FXUS64 KEPZ 060444
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1044 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Low chance of showers and storms in far eastern areas on
    Friday.

 -  Temperatures steadily climb into the weekend, with highs in
    the lower deserts climbing above 100 degrees again, the
    hottest days will be Saturday and Sunday.

 -  Slight cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday, back into the
    middle to upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Ongoing and overnight convection over the Permian Basin will push
the dry-line westward during the overnight hours, this in
combination with low-level SEerly flow will push moisture across the
eastern half of the CWA. Again, like during the first half of
Thursday, areas along and east of the RGV will see DP temps in the
upper 40s to around 50. It will not last long as deep afternoon
mixing taps into dry SWerlies aloft, pushing said low level moisture
back to the east. That being said, most if not all of the forecast
area will be rain free, with phantom PoPs over SE Hudspeth County
and far east Sac Mtn slopes during the afternoon hours.

Sub-tropical high pressure over southern TX and northeastern Mexico
will continue to strengthen, expand, and build on Friday. As result,
the normal SWerly flow regime we`ve been under will flatten with
500mb heights slowly rising across the region. This will ultimately
induce further warming across the forecast area on Friday. Euro/GFS
ensemble guidance both show 850mb temp topping out around 32-33C
during peak heating, translating to high temperatures around 100
degrees across the desert lowlands. With Medium to High (60-90
percent) confidence, high temperatures will top out around 100-102
degrees for El Paso and Hudspeth Counties, including the El Paso
Metro. Slightly lower confidence for Dona Ana, Luna, and Otero
Counties. Regardless it will be hot on Friday.

For the weekend, the aforementioned high pressure will continue to
build north and strengthen. Corresponding daily high temperatures
will further warm on Saturday and Sunday. Most lowland locations
across the CWA will see 100 degree readings on Saturday. If not
Saturday, definitely on Sunday with highs topping out in the low
100s. Temperatures for El Paso and surrounding locations will see
Saturday/Sunday high temperatures between 103-106 range. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed for that timeframe, especially
for Sunday. Friday morning/afternoon forecast package will take a
deeper look into that and issue a Heat Advisory if warranted.

For the beginning of next week, an anomalously strong area of low
pressure will drop south out of Manitoba/western Ontario and into
the Upper Midwest. This will nudge the aforementioned upper level
high towards the west over Baja CA and eastern Pacific. At the
surface, corresponding high pressure will migrate south across the
Plains, pushing a boundary westward across NM during the Tuesday
timeframe. The combination of this progged surface
boundary/easterly push and westward propagation of the upper level
high will promote slightly cooler temperatures during the first
half of next week. Temperatures will drop back into the middle to
upper 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
generally light at 3-7 knots and VRB through the overnight and
morning hours. Winds will become SWerly during the afternoon at
7-12 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Long story short...we are trending warmer and drier through the
weekend. What moisture we got earlier in the week, will be
departing. Atmospheric moisture, is still lurking, and flirting
over our eastern areas...lowlands and lower slopes of Otero and
Hudspeth counties, but the rest of the region has already dried
out. Any fuel and soil moistening will also be lost in short
order, due to the longer and sunnier days, with a return to very
low RH, mildly breezy dry SW winds, and hotter days.

Through the weekend, high pressure will strengthen to our south
and build north over the region. This will lead to a warming
trend, with mild morning temperatures, and afternoon highs well
above normal. Some lowland locations will be back to 100s
tomorrow, with most at and above 100 for the weekend afternoons.
RH will be trending lower, as the temperatures trend higher.
Lowlands will see daily minRH in the 3-8% range, while the
mountains see 7-12% minRH. Fortunately, we are under high
pressure, with no trough passages, thus no strong wind events
through this period. However, there will be marginally breezy
afternoons, with SW winds in the 10-20 mph range. Bottom line, is
ELEVATED fire weather conditions for sure due to heat,
instability, and dryness, but CRITICAL fire weather conditions
are not expected due to the lower winds.

Minor relief arrive Monday, as a large low pressure system drops
out of Canada, into the Upper Midwest. This system will bump our
dome of high pressure to the BAJA, and help to lower our
temperatures about 5-7 degrees. Temperatures will remain warm, and
slightly warmer than normal, but not excessively hot, like over
the weekend. In addition, we could see some more moisture
intruding over our northern and eastern areas, give Sierra, Otero,
Hudspeth counties bump in RH, and even some potential for isol/sct
rain and storms. The rest of the area will likely remain quite
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71 101  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  97  64 101 /  30  10  10   0
Las Cruces               63  97  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               63  97  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  76  52  78 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    63  98  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  89  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   61  99  62 103 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                59  96  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  99  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                66 101  64 105 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             70 104  68 106 /  30  10  10   0
Loma Linda               65  94  66  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   68 102  67 106 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66  97  65 103 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  99  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            61  97  61 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    60 100  60 103 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 66 100  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                63  96  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  88  56  91 /   0  20   0  10
Mescalero                53  86  55  89 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 50  84  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  50  89  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                60  96  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                58  96  60 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             53  90  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   56  93  57  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    56  95  56 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               56  90  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  60  93  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   59  97  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  59  97  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  97  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               61  90  62  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers