288
FXUS02 KWBC 221948
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026

...Significant winter storm will be ongoing across the Southeast
into Sunday and tracking across the Eastern Seaboard, bringing
widespread heavy snow and ice impacts...

...Hazardous cold is expected for much of the central and eastern
U.S. this weekend into early next week...

...Overview...

A dangerous winter storm will be ongoing across the southeastern
quadrant of the U.S. as the medium range period begins Sunday.
Freezing rain is likely to continue from portions of Texas across
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas/southern Mid-
Atlantic, while heavy snow will be spreading into the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast. This is on the fringes of an arctic surface high
pressure system which will bring dangerously cold temperatures to
the central and eastern U.S. into the early part of the week before
gradually moderating. After this major winter storm, broad upper
troughing will bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper systems
across the north-central U.S. to Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and
eventually some precipitation may reach the West by midweek.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

A widespread and significant winter storm remains almost certain
at this point, but there is still plenty of uncertainty in the
details at any particular location. The timing of the parent trough
through the East is better, but the UKMET was still a bit slow.
Subtle shifts like this in the guidance would be important towards
exactly where heavy snow and ice axes ultimately set up. The WPC
forecast for this trough as it exits the Northeast by Tuesday used
a general non-UKMET model blend.

After this, broad troughing will continue to be reinforced from
the Rockies eastward through much of the week. Embedded shortwaves
and surface fronts show typical spread, but a multi-model and
ensemble blend seemed to handle it well. Meanwhile, upper ridging
over the West Coast will eventually shift inland by Wednesday and
Thursday in response to deepening troughing off the West Coast.
There is plenty of uncertainty in energy ejecting from this trough
acting to suppress the western ridge late in the period. Again, a
blend with the ensemble means served as a good starting point for
this.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Into Sunday, extreme weather will be ongoing in the form of the
significant winter storm in the central to eastern U.S. and the
hazardous cold temperatures in the wake of this system. In the
southern Rockies/Plains, the winter storm should be winding down
but still produce some light snow and ice into Sunday. Meanwhile
significant freezing rain will be ongoing across portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and Southeast, and
reaching the Carolinas/southern Mid-Atlantic. A corridor of heavy
sleet may persist into Sunday along and just north of the areas of
maximum ice as well. Then to the north, heavy snow is likely across
much of the Mid-Atlantic and the northern/central Appalachians
into the Northeast. Snow amounts could reach a foot or more in the
I-95 major cities from DC to Boston, though continue to monitor
forecasts as changes could occur.

After the major winter storm, drier and quieter conditions are
likely across the lower 48 for the most part. Lake effect snow will
be likely in the cold westerly flow into next week, and a clipper
system could spread light snow from the north-central U.S. Tuesday
to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region Wednesday. Precipitation
is uncertain across the West, though some light precipitation is
possible across the northern and central Rockies, and broader
precipitation chances could reach the West Coast midweek.

The frigid arctic air will bring much below normal to record-
setting temperatures to many areas east of the Rockies. The cold
air as ice and snow are occurring will exacerbate travel impacts,
and then could increase recovery time as the cold lingers behind
the storm. On Sunday, the Plains can expect temperatures of 20-30
degrees below normal, with even greater anomalies of 35F below
normal into the southern Plains as highs only reach the 20s with
snow and ice covered ground. Daily records are likely across the
south-central U.S. as lows reach the single digits and teens on
Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile in the northern tier, bitter cold is
forecast to linger into early next week, but become somewhat milder
by Tuesday and beyond. In the eastern two-thirds of the nation,
the cold may moderate somewhat for Tuesday and Wednesday, but turn
colder again by Thursday especially for the Ohio Valley and
vicinity. Meanwhile, the Rockies should block the cold air from
moving into the West where an upper ridge should generally keep
temperatures near to slightly above average.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




$$