Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
154 AXPZ20 KNHC 092127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will support the potential for heavy rainfall across southern Central America into early next week. This weather pattern may particularly impact Costa Rica and Panama. Global models continue to show the CAG having a connection to the long moisture fetch from the eastern Pacific through next Thu. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center`s International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N92W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N101W, to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N114W to 09N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 101W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 11N to 13N between 93W and 99W, and from 07N to 11N between 110W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly light to gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh NW winds across the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California while gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the northern part of the Gulf. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between a ridge over northern Mexico and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh NW winds and associated moderate seas across the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish later today. Building high pressure west of the region will support fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte late Mon into Tue. This will be followed by large NW swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by Tue night, then offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night. Farther south, moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Tue. Then, winds are predicted to increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed night through Thu night as a ridge establishes across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh S to SW winds across the offshore waters of Panama, including the Gulf of Panama. These winds are transporting tropical moisture across southern Central America, now supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft will continue to impact the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A couple of low pressure areas persist along the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted just SE and S of the remnant low of Fourteen-E now located near 11N101W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is still occurring within about 150 nm on the west semicircle of the low center. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are seen on the NW quadrant of the low pressure located near 11N114W. Farther to the northwest, large NW swell continues to propagate across the NW waters, particularly N of 23N and W of 130W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft there. A trough persists across the north waters and extends from 30N129W to 21N127W. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge and allowing mainly gentle to moderate winds to persist elsewhere, with combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the NW swell event will continue to push to the southeast, covering most of the area N of 20N and W of 130W by tonight before decaying below 8 ft late on Sun. A more substantial group of NW swell will follow by Mon night, with wave heights of 8 to 13 ft covering much of the region north of 10N and west of 115W through Thu as another swell event reaches the forecast region. By Thu, a strong high pressure is expected to dominate the forecast area bringing increasing winds. Farther to the southeast, the fresh to strong SW flow and associated seas will diminish in strength and areal extent through Sun night. $$ GR