925
AXPZ20 KNHC 060408
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An elongated trough of low pressure is located several hundred
miles south of southern Mexico along the monsoon trough from 10N
to 12N between roughly 100W and 110W. A tropical wave may still
be active along 102W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Clusters of
showers and thunderstorms are active along the northern edge of
the elongated trough off the coasts of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
Guerrero. A few showers and thunderstorms are also noted ahead of
the tropical wave. Moderate SW winds are flow into the elongated
trough, but generally light to gentle breezes are note elsewhere
so far in this area. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in SW swell.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward toward Socorro Island.
The expected low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 12N100W to
08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 84W and
89W, and from 10N to 12N between 105W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico from
which low pressure is expected to form with potential for
tropical cyclone development.

A weak pressure pattern is supporting gentle breezes over most of
the area off Baja California this evening. The except is near the
coast of Baja California Sur where an earlier scatterometer
satellite pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds funneling
mainly off Cabo San Lucas and high pressure farther to the
northwest near 25N120W. Light breezes are noted elsewhere off
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5
ft primarily in SW swell off southern Mexico. Slight seas are
noted across the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for
developing low pressure off southern Mexico described in the
Special Features section. Expect winds to increase and seas to
build across the offshore waters off western Oaxaca and Guerrero
by tonight with building seas. These strong winds and rough seas
will expand westward across the offshore waters toward Cabo
Corrientes through Sun as low pressure deepens farther to the
south off the coast. Mariners should continue to monitor the
latest statements from the National Hurricane Center on the
possible tropical cyclone development. Gentle to moderate winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are expected elsewhere across Mexican offshore
waters, with slight seas over the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting in
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough,
and light to gentle winds to the N of it. Cross-equatorial SW
swell is producing moderate seas across the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will occur
south of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with mainly
gentle winds expected to the north. Moderate seas in cross-
equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters into this
weekend. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
offshore Nicaragua Fri night. Abundant tropical moisture will
persist across the region increasing the likelihood of showers
and thunderstorms through at least Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to
fresh NE winds north of 25N between 1033 mb high pressure well
north of the area near 42N143W and a trough from extending from
southern California to 25N130W. Concurrent altimeter satellite
data showed combined seas of 8 to 11 ft with NE swell in this
area. Seas to 8 ft are likely in an area of moderate to fresh
trade winds from 05N to 10N west of 135W. Outside of the winds
and seas east of 110W described in the Special Features section,
mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 5 to 7
ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh N to NE winds will persist across
the waters north of 25N and west of 130W through early Fri. The
swell will continue to propagate across the northern forecast
waters through Fri before subsiding late Fri night.

$$
Christensen