440
FXUS66 KEKA 222258
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 229 PM
PST Thu Jan 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Clearer and more dry conditions will settle across the
area this weekend with some particularly cold mornings with lows
near freezing. Conditions will slightly warm and moisten next week
with increasing chances of wetting rain late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A cutoff low continues to move south along the
California Coast today, helping to turn wind offshore and pull in
generally drier air. Skies have gradually cleared, even along the
coast, as a result. Cold air building just east of the area will
continue to reinforce offshore flow into the evening. This will
allow for more consistently clear skies and very dry conditions with
daytime RH possibly dipping into the teens, especially at some
higher elevations.

Clear skies and dry air will enable cold overnight conditions,
particularly Friday and Saturday nights. Highs will most likely be
right around freezing. Friday night, there is a roughly 20 to 40%
chance of interior valley lows below 30 degrees with a 10% chance
closer to the coast. Chances increase Saturday night with interior
probabilities of 40 to 70%, though near coastal probabilities remain
low near 10%, likely thanks to shallow fog formation. Such
temperatures could pose a risk to sensitive outdoor plants and those
without housing.

Conditions will slightly warm but greatly moisten early next week as
a weak warm front alongside a push of southerly winds crosses the
area around Tuesday. Increasing midlevel clouds will generally limit
the high temperature potential. There is high model agreement that a
weak and quick moving trough will cross the area behind the warm
front sometime around Wednesday. This trough will bring the first
real chances of wetting rain since the first week of January.

Rain will most likely be relatively evenly spread across the area
from  North to South with only a slight focus on the North Coast.
There remains very high model spread in terms of rain amounts. For
low elevations, model means over 48 hours are around 0.2 to 0.5
inches, though there is a 10% chance of greater than 1.5 inches or
even greater at higher elevations. At the same time, the bottom 30%
of models still show no rain at all. In any case, more moist
conditions are essentially certain, even should no rain occur, and
even the very high end of forecast will pose little to no flood risk
given the recent dry period.

Long range ensembles show generally good agreement that a wetter
pattern will then continue through the end of January. Again, model
spread remains high with round of light to moderate rain being most
likely through next weekend. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Stratus has been clearing out over Humboldt
bay and at KACV this afternoon. This trend to mostly VFR conditions
will continue into this afternoon, but some mist and low clouds may
redevelop specifically around Humboldt and in the Eel delta by mid
evening. Offshore flow will likely limit the chances of widespread
stratus development tonight, especially for KCEC area where offshore
flow will be strongest. Around Humboldt Bay and Eel delta some
stratus may linger overnight before scouring out Friday morning.
Now for southern Mendocino, particularly at KUKI, guidance is
suggesting a chance for IFR by early Friday morning as a southerly
push develops in the wake of transient trough. Some low ceilings and
vsbys for KUKI may occur (30% chance) early Friday morning.
Confidence KUKI will have LIFR remains low with boundary layer
humidity from some of the more reliable models no more than 80%.
Otherwise, expecting VFR to prevail except for fog and low clouds in
the interior river valleys late tonight and early Fri morning.
Northerlies aloft increase after 23/06z and shallow low level
turbulence and/or low level wind shear will become a hazard for
small aircraft, primarily over Humboldt county from KACV southward,
more specifically over the King Range.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds have gradually increased through the
day. Gusts up to 20kts have been observed int he inner waters with
gusts closer to 30 kts in the outer waters. Winds will continue to
increase overnight with a 60 to 70% chance of gusts over 34 kts by
midnight tonight. Gale gust coverage increases after 8-10PM with
very steep seas building to 9-11 ft overnight into Friday. Combined
seas will build to 10 to 14 feet in the outer waters by Friday
afternoon.

Ocean conditions will also deteriorate Thursday night and Friday for
the inner waters. Gale gusts are certainly probable around notorious
wind prone locations such as Cape Mendocino and perhaps around Pt St
George, but the primary hazard for the waters appears to be large
steep waves arising from the strong northerlies offshore. Seas are
unlikely to reach 10 feet but will still be very steep between 8 and
9 feet.

Conditions look to gradually improve over the weekend as the axis of
strong north wind shifts outside of NW California waters and steep
wind waves gradually subside. In this mix of steep short period
waves will be a long period (>16 seconds) westerly swell on Thu that
will decay through Fri. A mid period swell near 14 second follow on
Fri, followed by third mid period group on Sat. None of these appear
to pose a risk for sneaker waves at this time. /JHW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ470-475.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday
     for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png