570
FXUS63 KEAX 071147
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
647 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning into mid
  afternoon.

- Locally moderate rainfall will be possible. A strong storm or
  two will be possible toward central Missouri by mid
  afternoon.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
  afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
  primary hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains has
initiated yet another overnight MCS across the Southern Plains
into the mid to lower Mississippi Valley, with the weaker
northern edge of the MCS slowly nudging its way into far
eastern KS toward the MO state line. However, the convection is
struggling to sustain itself as it slowly progresses eastward as
it heads into an area of increased convective inhibition. CAM
guidance suggests that the MCS should continue to erode away as
it continues its eastward trek toward our CWA through the next
few hours. Meanwhile, toward central Missouri, dense fog has
developed, with quarter mile visibility at Boonville and
Moberly as of 4 AM. This has prompted the issuance of a dense
fog advisory through 9 AM for these locations, after which the
dense fog should mix out.

Another area of convection has developed this morning across
central Nebraska, which will continue to progress to the east
southeast through the morning hours with the mid level trough
axis, likely eventually becoming a relatively well developed MCS
as it moves through our CWA from west to east from roughly 9 AM
through mid afternoon. Instability will be quite modest, so
severe weather seems unlikely for most locations. But with 1.2
to 1.4 PWAT and a relatively slow moving MCS, there could be
corridors of 1" to 2" of rain. The most likely location and time
for any better organized updrafts and perhaps a strong storm or
two looks to be toward central Missouri by mid afternoon where
localized higher instability and deep layer shear will reside.

By tonight, a closed mid level low develops over southern
Saskatchewan, with an accompanying amplified mid upper trough
beginning to dig southward into the far northern High Plains. By
around noon Sunday, the closed 500 mb low is progged to descend
to SE of Winnipeg, with the southern extent of the trough
advancing southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. This will
send a cold front through the CWA from northwest to southeast
from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. With a
moderately unstable airmass along and ahead of this front and
around 30 to 40 knots of deep layer bulk shear, a few strong to
severe storms will be possible, with SPC putting our CWA from
KC to Kirksville and southward into a slight risk for severe
storms. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazards, with the potential for sig hail (2+ inches) for KC and
points southwest where ML CAPE is progged to be higher (up to
2500 J/kg) and mid level lapse rates should be steeper.

Slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather is likely to come
behind the front for Monday as the closed mid level low is
progged to advanced into Wisconsin with strong WNW mid level
flow over our region. The mid to upper low and accompanying trough
exits to the east on Tuesday, with mid level ridging building
in by Wednesday. This will yield warmer temperatures with highs
into the mid 80s across the region for Wednesday with dry
weather continuing. Shower/storm chances return by Thursday as
models suggest another wave entering into the Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Light rain continues at IXD and MKC, but should be moving out
within the next hour. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms (and MVFR CIGs/VIS) should arrive at the terminals between
roughly 15z and 19z, with the best chances at STJ and MCI.
Conditions should return to VFR after the rain exits east. Winds
should be variable this morning and early afternoon as a weak
surface low moves through, but will likely increase a bit with
the convection this morning/afternoon. Winds will eventually
become northerly by this afternoon, becoming light.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ033-040-
     046.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW