491
FXUS63 KEAX 130749
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, mainly south and
  east of a Kansas City to Macon, MO line.
    - Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storm that
      develops.

* Several additional chances for showers and storms this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows a positively
tilted shortwave trough from northern MO into TX and potentially a
closed low over northern OK. 00Z soundings from TOP, SGF, and OUN,
show precipitable water values of roughly 1.6" at TOP, 1.8" at SGF,
and 1.9 at OUN. At the surface, a weak front was stalled over the
area that appears to be oriented from central OK northeastward into
northeastern MO. Showers and a storms have developed in the vicinity
of this front. Even the low to mid-level circulation is notable on
the regional 0.5 degree reflectivity plot. This shortwave will
slowly track eastward through the day and as a result, we should see
an increase in coverage of the convection as the day progresses
and the boundary layer becomes more buoyant. With only about
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and weak shear, the threat of
organized severe weather is nil. However, given the airmass,
water-loaded down drafts are possible. Additionally, locally
heavy rainfall can be expected in any shower or storm that
develops given the high precipitable water values, high freezing
levels, and slow movement. By late this afternoon into this
evening, it looks like the shortwave will be moving east of the
forecast and that should lead to a winding down the showers and
storms for our forecast area. With thick cloud cover today
associated with the showers and storms, temperatures will be
cooler than normal, especially for the southeastern half of the
forecast area.

We`ll see a lull in activity Monday as we temporarily have a drier
(for July) airmass over us. Things change Tuesday into Wednesday.
Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave moving northeastward
into the area from OK. However there is some variability in the
location and thus the location for potential heavy rainfall. The GFS
is further east, keeping the best rain chances south and east of the
area. The NAM is further west, stronger, and tracks the shortwave
right over the forecast area with heavy rain associated with the
wave. Most other models are weaker and closer in line to the
GFS. This leads to the NAM being an outlier for rain amounts
with this system with it showing pockets of 2-2.5 inches. While
some of the higher end ensemble members have backed off their
rain amounts for midweek, there are still some members in the
GEFS showing 24-hour totals of 2.5-3". While this is unlikely
to occur, it remains a small possibility so we`ll need to
continue to watch this system given the environmental
parameters. Ensemble guidance continues to show mean
precipitable water values of around 1.8" with the 75th
percentile near 2".

While temperatures look more seasonal Monday and Tuesday, highs may
climb into the low 90s across eastern KS and western MO on
Wednesday. And with increased humidity, heat index values will
climb to around 100 again. For late in the week, temperatures
return to more seasonal levels with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Conditions will likely be VFR through the forecast but there may
be periods of MVFR. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms
will be present in the area but for now it looks like this
activity will remain east of the terminals. If activity drifts
or develops westward, will amend as needed but for now will
keep it dry. Winds will be light through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB