748
FXUS63 KEAX 021121
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog Sunday Morning Central Missouri

- Gradual Warm Up This Week

- Next Precipitation Chances Are Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Closed-low has moved eastward into the Ohio River Valley while ridge
axis is pushing eastward across the Rockies into portions of the
High Plains. This continues to promote strong northerly flow in the
mid and upper-level portions of the troposphere. Stronger dAVA has
provided plenty of subsidence across the Central CONUS fostering the
development of strong surface anticyclone, with 08z analysis showing
this is centered roughly over the KS-MO state line. Clear skies and
weak winds have allowed efficient radiational cooling during the
overnight hours. Temperatures have already dropped into the lower
and mid 30s. Some areas as of 08z just dipped below 30F. Most of the
forecast is expected to reach below freezing prior to sunrise. Fog
has also developed in Central Missouri during the overnight hours,
roughly along the Hwy. 63 corridor. GOES nighttime imagery is also
showing some fog development directly along the Missouri River. With
several hours of visibility of 1/4 mile or less, have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory along Hwy. 63 through this morning. We will continue to
watch trends overnight to determine if a westward expansion may be
needed later. Fog should begin to mix out between 13-14z this
morning.

Through the middle part of this week, the ridge axis will continue
to push across the eastern Plains gradually pushing the surface
anticyclone eastward toward the Ohio River Valley. Flow in the lower
portion of the troposphere will be turn southwesterly, promoting WAA
across the Plains and lower Missouri River Valley through much of
the week. This will push afternoon high temperatures back into the
60s, and we may see some spots hit the 70 degree mark Tuesday or
Wednesday. Troughing over the Pacific Northwest is expected to send
a few short-waves toward the central CONUS through the middle of the
week that will work to deamplify the ridge into a brisk zonal flow
pattern. We may see a few vort maxima traverse the region but
overall forcing appears to be nebulous. Therefore forecast through
the middle of the week remains dry, with ensemble probabilities for
most locations at less than 10 percent for any measurable rainfall.
Stronger short-wave is progged to move across the area by Friday and
next weekend that will bring our next mentionable chance for rain.
Ensemble probabilities for rainfall Friday into Saturday next week
are around 10-15 percent, though will mention for our forecast area
is a downward trend from previous runs, with the greater
probabilities now shifting eastward closer to the Mississippi River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Dense fog in central Missouri through 14z this morning. Fog has
also developed along the Missouri River. The fog along the
Missouri River may impact the MKC and STJ terminals for a few
hours this morning. Conditions clear up by mid morning and
should remain VFR the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-046.
KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull