


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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911 FXUS63 KEAX 230358 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1058 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue through Monday, with only limited relief expected through the rest of the upcoming week. - Chances for thunderstorms increase Monday afternoon and evening in far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. An isolated severe storm is possible (< 15% chance), with locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding a bigger concern (up to 30% chance). - Storm chances gradually increase for the rest of the region by late week, with low (< 15%) chances for severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary hazardous weather risk with any storms that occur. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Another early-summer scorcher is in progress today across the region, with temperatures in the 90s and heat indices approaching/exceeding 100 degrees in much of the area. Despite the reasonably similar tropospheric pattern in place versus that of 24 hours ago, there are some subtle differences in sensible weather today across the area. For areas south of the KC metro, boundary-layer mixing has been more effective today in lowering dew points this afternoon, with heat indices in these areas primarily remaining in the 90s through 2 pm. Meanwhile, higher dew points combined with slightly warmer temperatures have led to widespread 100+ heat indices north of I-70 this afternoon. As a synoptic front slowly approaches the region on Monday, expect these spatial variations to persist, with perhaps even a slightly more noticeable gradient in heat indices (highest north to lowest south). Despite the marginal nature of the heat (at least, compared to advisory criteria) in the southern parts of the forecast area, the prolonged nature of the heat and lack of overnight relief (lows in the mid to upper 70s) certainly compensate, requiring continuation of the heat advisory through Monday evening for the entire area. Meanwhile, the aforementioned front will be approaching our far northwest zones during peak heating on Monday. Proximity soundings continue to indicate a moderate-to-very unstable environment will be in place with little or no capping before convective initiation. Convection-allowing models (CAMs) initiate storms nearly universally between 2 and 4 pm near the front (from north-central Kansas to far southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa). With a lack of deep-layer shear, storm organization will be limited, and fairly weak deep-layer flow will keep storm motions relatively slow. With propagation effects likely dominating convective evolution in an environment of high (1.75-2.00") PWs, training storms producing bouts of heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard with storms that develop. However, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing sporadic damaging wind gusts, given dry midlevels and high (900+ J/kg) DCAPE. This threat is outlined well by the current slight-risk Day-2 severe weather outlook from the SPC (mainly along/north of Doniphan County, KS, to Worth County, MO). Though the marginal risk extends southward to the KC metro and eastward to the Kirksville area, chances for storms rapidly drop in these areas (and are generally lower than 20% farther southeast). With CAMs in good agreement on the geographic coverage/evolution of the storms, confidence is rather high that any severe/flooding potential Monday and Monday night will remain well northwest of the previously-mentioned KC to Kirksville line. One noticeable change with the convective evolution simulated by the CAMs tomorrow is the lingering presence of storms overnight, perhaps owing to a somewhat stronger trend with the nocturnal low-level jet. The strongest convection should diminish by late evening, but heavy rainfall will remain a threat with any storms overnight. Localized totals in excess of 2 inches seem likely in this environment, with the best chances of this just north of our forecast area -- but high enough in our far north to warrant mentioning here. The forecast for Tuesday becomes murkier, owing to lingering effects of the convection from Monday night, clashing with the continued effects of upper ridging from the southeastern U.S. Models have trended a little stronger with the ridging this coming week, even extending its influence slightly farther west in general Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the conflicting influence of the antecedent convection and the perhaps re- strengthening ridge, confidence was too low in any extension to the heat advisory beyond Monday evening. However, it is not out of the question extension of the current advisory or issuance of subsequent advisories will be required for portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday given the increasingly-probable lingering heat/humidity (especially for the southeastern half of the CWA). The more confident aspect of the stronger ridging is that precipitation chances are lower for much of the forecast area through midweek. Kept mentionable PoPs (15-40%) generally north of U.S. Highway 36 Tuesday through Wednesday night as a result. With a passing shortwave trough Monday night/Tuesday, the expansion of ridging westward and even somewhat northward Tuesday and Wednesday makes sense and would keep the storm track to our north (and associated chances for more widespread convection). Ensembles are hinting at somewhat higher potential for convection late in the week (Thursday and Friday), owing to a perturbation ejecting into the northern/central Plains. However, confidence is not particularly high on the southward extent of storms, thanks to the strength of the southeast U.S. ridge. For now, kept PoPs in the slight-chance to chance range (roughly 20 to 50 percent) during this time frame, but it is worth noting that several deterministic runs from 12z have trended drier for the area late this week. Should convection affect our area during this time frame, the overall environment would again favor sporadic downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall as the main storm hazards. Beyond the work week, models are trending toward retrogression of the large-scale ridge in the southeastern U.S. This will keep our region in the warmth and on the fringes of higher storm potential (with rainfall chances continuing to be higher to our north) for a while, but if retrogression is far enough west, we may become more directly impacted by northwest upper-level flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Gusty winds will continue through the overnight hours. This will continue into Monday afternoon, but not expected to be as strong Monday afternoon as they were the previous two days. High clouds drift in through the afternoon, but will remain VFR. Scattered shower activity starts to move toward the KC metro terminals late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...CMS AVIATION...Krull