027
FXUS63 KEAX 241125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog across the central MO is expected to be replaced by
  rain through the morning.

- Rain lingers through much of the day. Showers are expected to
  start relatively isolated steadily expanding through the
  morning. A few heavy downpours are possible.

- More fog is expected to develop behind the showers Monday
  night into Tuesday.

- The holiday week continues to look dry before another storm
  system looks to enter for the post Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A pronounced cyclone is working its way off the eastern Rockies into
western KS. Just ahead of it is a compressed ridge stabilizes much
of the vertical column over eastern KS ans western MO. A jet streak
to the southwest is shoveling low level moisture into the region.
This saturated layer has been trapped under a warmer, drier upper
atmosphere which has resulted in a compressed, thick cloud deck. For
those east of the KC metro, this cloud deck is more or less on the
ground resulting in dense fog across the region. Satellite imagery
shows the train of moisture being advected into central MO; however,
the relative stability of the present air mass has discouraged the
development of showers keeping rain to the south across the Ozark
Plateau at the moment.

This has been evolving through the night as the cyclone advances
northeastward. Upper level air becomes more saturated increasing the
depth of the moist layer. Cyclonic vorticity advection aloft as the
low pressure center approached encouraging lift and developing
showers. Originally starting to the south and west of the area,
these showers are expected to move in closer to sunrise. The good
news is that rainfall will displace the dense fog; so instead of
driving into a thick wall of cloud, it will be a thick wall of rain.

Through the night, we have seen the more robust saturated air
struggle against the antecedent dry air across MO. Showers have been
progressing into the region only to be dissipated by the less
favorable air mass. Over the course of the next few hours, showers
are expected to slowly filter into the region. The lift from the CVA
mentioned earlier eventually wins out with showers migrating into
the region starting across the I-29/I-35, and I-49 corridors during
the morning commute. Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible
as PWATs ascend to around 1 inch and more shortwave eject from the
parent cyclone. That said, the showers have been somewhat
under performing through the night, so it might take a bit for an
organized shield of showers to form. Rain eventually makes its way
across the area by midday. The general lack of instability keeps
expectations tampered to gentle rain showers with embedded heavier
downpours, but it would not be all the surprising to hear a couple
rumbles of thunder. Chances for more robust precipitation come
particularly along the US-65 corridor Monday evening as a elevated
front sweeps through the region.

Behind this front, once again the column dries with the exception of
the lowest layers. This presents another opportunity for fog
development particularly if sky coverage is able to break up a bit.
Another shortwave and accompanying boundary sweep through the area on
Tuesday which could develop some sparse sprinkles and showers across
central MO. Much cooler and drier air works into the area Wednesday.
High temperatures subside just below seasonal normals settling in
the low to mid 40s. These temperatures continue through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the forthcoming weekend.

Speaking of the forthcoming weekend, we have been keeping an eye on
a potential developing system which could slightly disrupt the post
holiday travel period. It still remains fairly difficult to
ascertain what might happen as the primary wave associated with this
system is still over the western Aleutians, if it has even ejected
from the polar flow. Deterministic guidance suggests a midlevel wave
which could be informally described as an Alberta clipper tapping
into an established warm air and moisture conveyor across the
eastern Rockies. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the
potential for precipitation next weekend keeping wintry precipitation
chances mainly concentrated across far NE MO (around 30-40%
chances). Many of the impacts from this system continue to remain
north and east of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

IFR conditions are expected to persist through the period.
SHRA is developing to the west of the terminals and are expected
to move in over the next few hours. Trends have been slightly
under performing short term forecast so kept the first round of
showers at PROB30; however, more robust SHRA coverage is
expected later in the afternoon.

VIS is expected to improve as FG dissipates; however, RA will
keep VIS limited. BR/FG is expected to redevelop after sunset
behind SHRA. Winds remain generally SE becoming NW during the
late overnight as a weak front moves through.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ006>008-
     015>017-024-025.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel