979
FXUS63 KEAX 311912
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
212 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke may move into northern MO this evening/tonight.

- Below normal temperatures with lower humidity continue through the
  weekend.

- Temperatures trend near to above normal by the middle of next
  week with increased humidity building as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Upstream observations show smoke/haze with minor visibility
restrictions across IA and now into NE MO. This may continue to
concentrated enough as it advects southeastward to be
noticeable for folks across northern MO. Available guidance
indicates this smoke becomes less concentrated the further
southeast it advects. Have added mention of this to the grids,
which keep it across northern MO. It`s possible this moves
further southeast and affects eastern KS and west central MO as
well. Guidance also shows another area of smoke moving into the
area from the north to northwest tomorrow. This will be higher-
level smoke and some mention of this may be needed with future
updates.

A cooler and much drier airmass will continue to filter into the
region as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and the Great
Lakes area. This will keep our low-level winds from roughly the
northeast. The surface high will persist in that region through
the weekend, keeping the cooler and drier airmass present
through the weekend. This will result in temperatures roughly 10
degrees below normal for this time of year. Dewpoints will also
drop into the 50s and lower 60s. Towards the end of the weekend
and into next week, as the Great Lakes high pressure shifts
further east, low-level flow will become more southeasterly,
helping to start some warm and moist advection. This will lead
to a start of a warming trend Monday. This modest warm and moist
advection, combined with the upper ridge strengthening over the
Rockies, increased northwesterly flow, and increasing potential
for a few shortwaves to move over the ridge, will bring low
chances for precipitation into eastern KS and western MO.

Tuesday - Thursday:

The upper ridge will continue to build and also expand eastward into
the middle of the country for the later half of next week. This will
result in temperatures trending upward through the end of the
forecast. Current forecast has highs climbing to near to just above
seasonal normals. Thursday into Friday, low probabilities of
temperatures 95+ spread into eastern KS and western MO. The building
of the ridge further east into the middle of the country should also
limit precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

MVFR ceilings currently, with cloud bases around 2-3K feet AGL
will increase into the VFR range. Conditions will likely stay
VFR through the forecast from there. However, upstream
visibility through IA and IL is being reduced to MVFR
conditions due to smoke. This may advect into eastern KS and
western MO. So we`ll need to monitor the progress of that and
add to or amend the forecast. Otherwise, light northeast winds
are expected through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB