592
ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Southeast to the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys...
A large MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across the
OK/AR vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM continues to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential should first emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be
present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and
interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south
and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D1 convection. Considered an upgrade to a
level 3-ENH for damaging wind centered on northern MS/AL/GA, but
have deferred due to mesoscale uncertainties at this time frame.

A likely separate regime of afternoon to evening storm development
should be focused ahead of the central Plains to Midwest shortwave
trough. Primary uncertainty here is the degree of diurnal
destabilization in the wake of/to the north-northwest of the Mid to
Deep South MCS. Have expanded level 2-SLGT risk somewhat north
across the southern MO vicinity, but confidence in overall
intensity/coverage farther downstream is low.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...
In the wake of the large MCS that is expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, guidance remains consistent in suggesting a relative
down-day in terms of late afternoon storms across the southern High
Plains. Convection will probably remain quite isolated and initially
tied to the Raton Mesa and Trans-Pecos vicinities. Isolated
development is also possible in the TX Big Country at the
intersection of the dryline and large-scale outflow from the morning
MCS. Weak low-level warm advection atop this outflow in the evening
should aid in scattered thunderstorms downstream through the
Mid-South. With expansion of the southern Plains EML, a mix of
scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds is possible before
intensity wanes overnight.

...Dakotas vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
amplify into the Dakotas/MN through early Sunday. As this occurs,
the primary surface cyclone should drift east across southern MB. A
cold front will arc to the south-southwest of this cyclone and move
southeast across the Dakotas during the afternoon. MLCAPE should
remain meager with low-quality boundary-layer moisture. But the
strengthening forcing for ascent should support a band of
lower-topped convection. Strong to localized severe gusts are
possible during the late afternoon to early evening when a
well-mixed boundary layer is prevalent.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$