780
FXUS63 KDVN 300551
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm will continue to bring snow to the area into the
  nighttime hours, decreasing in coverage by midnight.
  Accumulation likely until end of event.

- Behind the system, we will see gusty northwest winds.
  Considerable blowing/drifting snow may result through Sunday
  morning, with gusts upwards to 40 mph.

- Much colder, with sporadic chances for light snow through the
  upcoming work week. Nights in the single digits expected!

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The winter storm warnings have been cancelled for areas
along/south of a Jefferson County, Iowa east to Warren County,
Illinois line. The snow has ended and road conditions are
starting to improve.

Very windy conditions will develop later this evening and
overnight. Some observing sites in southern and southwest Iowa
are reporting gusts of 34-38 knots at times.

The snow that fell in southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and
far northeast Missouri had a less than 10 to 1 ratio; meaning it
was a very wet and heavy snow. Compaction of this snow and some
melting with temperatures above freezing should have created a
crust on the surface of the snow. Thus the overall risk of
blowing snow later tonight is low. Some patchy blowing snow in
rural areas may occur but widespread blowing snow is not
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 116 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winter storm will continue to impact the area this afternoon and
into the evening hours, with the next 2-4 hours having the best
potential for heaviest snowfall rates. HREF probabilities favor
snowfall rates between 1-1.5" per hour this afternoon,
especially as we head into the evening commute. Up until this
point, we have seen a widespread snowfall of around 6-8". Thus,
with some of the more intense snowfall rates moving in this
afternoon, we will see the potential for an additional 3-6" for
much of the area. As we go deeper into the evening and
overnight hours, we will see the rates steadily decrease, with
snow chances starting to decrease from southwest to northeast by
midnight. By midnight, our next layer of impacts begins as
winds start to increase on the back end of the system. Wind
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible behind this system, which
may result in considerable blowing/drifting snow. Much of the
falling snow should be moving out at this point, but the blowing
snow will lead to reduced visibilities and snow covered roads.
Thus, we can expect travel impacts through the night and into
the Sunday morning commute, as we can expect blowing snow to
cover some roadways again, especially in rural areas.

Sunday, we will be on the back end of the system, putting us under
cold advection. We will see the snow move out of most of the area by
sunrise, with low-end PoPs in our far east early in the day.
Otherwise, we will remain mostly dry through the day. Clouds will
remain draped overhead, with much cooler temperatures in place. We
are currently looking at daytime temperatures in the 20s, with wind
chills in the single digits to teens. Aside from the cold, the main
thing that will have us concerned tomorrow are the gusty northwest
winds continuing from the overnight hours. We will see northwest
winds around 10-20 mph, gusting upwards to 30+ mph at times,
especially early in the day. Thus, we may continue to see
considerable blowing/drifting snow through the morning,
resulting in continued travel impacts. Wind gusts are expected
to decrease slowly mid-morning and beyond, which should allow
for gradual improvement in road conditions. By sunset Sunday,
winds should be light and out of the northwest, becoming light
and variable overnight. Fortunately, cloud cover should remain
through Sunday night, which should limit temperatures from
plummeting too much. Although, it will still be quite cold, with
lows in the single digits (northwest) to teens (southeast).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

We continue to see a trend for a much colder stretch for the early
part of next week, thanks to 850 mb temperatures around 9 to 12
degrees C below zero per the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles through
Tuesday. While these values aren`t too impressive, they will be
sufficiently cold to support overnight lows Sunday and Monday nights
dipping into the single digits. These will be the coldest nights of
the season so far, especially Sunday night, given a high pressure
ridge axis will be moving over a fresh snowpack. We`ll need to watch
the Sunday night lows in particular as the NBM exceedance
probabilities of lows below zero are around 50 to 70% over portions
of northeastern Iowa, so we could also see our first below zero lows
at that time.

Another possible system looks to quickly sweep through the area
Monday through Monday night as a mid-level shortwave trough
associated with a positively-tilted upper trough approaches the
area. P-types should be all snow, but the duration of the snow looks
much more limited compared to this weekend`s system. This round of
snow appears more moisture starved, too, but with decent forcing,
this should result in a round of light accumulating snow. NBM
probabilities of one inch are around 50 to 80% for most of the area
(save for our northwestern areas), with probs of two inches around
30 to 60%. So, decent probabilities for at least some
shovelable snow, especially over our southeastern areas where
these exceedance probabilities are their highest.

There could be another chance of snow late Wednesday, but there are
some discrepancies among the models on the timing and coverage of
this snow, so not much stock to put into this at this time. Outside
of these two snow chances, the remainder of the week looks to be dry
and colder than average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The ongoing winter storm gradually comes to an end tonight as
snow eventually lightens up. As of TAF issuance, a mix of IFR
to MVFR conditions were observed. As the snow tapers off, IFR
conditions should dissipate, but MVFR ceilings (60-80%
probabilities per the NBM) and visibility reductions due to
blowing snow should continue. Blowing snow will be most likely
in gusts of 30+ knots. Eventually, the northwest winds will
gradually weaken as we go through the day Sunday as an area of
low pressure moves away from the region. Uncertainty exists on
when ceilings will improve to VFR, given spread in the latest
models, so some adjustments may be needed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

November 1-Day Snowfall Records (Date Set)

Dubuque, IA: 10.3" (11/25/1992)
Moline, IL: 13.3" (11/25/2018)
Cedar Rapids, IA: 9.0" (11/22/1893)

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078.
IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz
CLIMATE...Gross/Schultz