039
FXUS63 KDVN 011724
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1224 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...Updated for 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers are possible today with highs
  in the 40s.

- Quiet weather with moderating temps through the rest of the
  long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Upper level low is slowly moving south across the region this
morning. This will bring cloudy skies to the area and cooler
temps. H85 temps below 0C are expected. This with the cloud
cover will lead to temps making it to the 40s today. Cyclonic
flow behind the upper level low will help to form showers across
the area today. CAMs have isolated to scattered showers,
especially west of the Mississippi River today. As previously
mentioned, winds look to remain below 10 mph today. Overall a
pretty gloomy start to November across the area.

Tonight, clouds look to hold on a little longer. If they end up
clearing out sooner, there is a chance for fog development. We
will need to keep an eye on this, as this could lead to some
freezing fog. Confidence is low in this setup, later shifts will
need to keep an eye on this.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

At the beginning of the period, upper level ridging builds into
the area. We remain close to this ridge through the period.
North of us, the flow is more zonal, so we see some shortwaves
approach the area. However, we look to be lacking in any real
moisture, so quiet weather is expected through the long term.
Towards the end of the week, the pattern looks to turn active.
We could see precip chances ramp up for the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected during the TAF cycle.
Scattered showers (40-50%) are ongoing early in the TAF period
primarily in the vicinity of KBRL attendant to a sagging upper level
shortwave. Additional isolated/widely scattered showers (20-30%)
will be possible areawide by mid afternoon into early this evening
(20z-02z) with a mid level deformation zone and presence of steep
low level lapse rates. Some decrease in clouds /mix of clear skies
and pockets of VFR to possibly some MVFR ceilings/ is anticipated
tonight with increasing subsidence on the backside of the departing
upper level wave. This coupled with light winds will bring the
potential for radiational fog developing after 06z through 15z Sunday.
The fog could bring IFR to VLIFR conditions to some locations with
the 12z HREF probabilities for visibility <1SM generally at 20-50% with
some pockets of higher probabilities of 60-70%. NBM probabilities are
much lower at less than 20% for visibilities <1SM and generally around
30% <5SM mainly near to south of KBRL and 10-20% elsewhere. This
illustrates the uncertainty on spatial extent and magnitude of fog.
LREF probabilities of total cloud cover >50% are greater than 50% with
around 60%+ near the Hwy 20 corridor. This would suggest the better fog
potential may be near to south of KBRL and given radar trends supportive
of some showers there aiding BL moisture will have at least MVFR to
possibly IFR fog mention for KBRL. Will probably leave out fog mention
elsewhere for now due to uncertainty with higher probabilities for
some clouds per LREF, but the fog potential will certainly need to be
monitored. On Sunday, winds will shift from the S/SW and begin to
increase to around 10-15 kt by 15z-18z with some gusts 15-25 kt developing
near the end of the period and just beyond through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure