105
FXUS63 KDVN 102315
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
515 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional clipper systems will likely result in periods of
  accumulating snow Thursday - Thursday night and again on
  Saturday.

- Temperatures will drop for the weekend with wind chills well
  below zero Friday and Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

An area of light snow has developed across portions of eastern
Minnesota down into north-central Iowa early this afternoon,
associated with a weak wave aloft. This wave will likely track
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois during the late
afternoon to early nighttime hours, leading to some patchy
light snow. Latest hi-res models are generating light QPF around
the Quad Cities and points to the north and east, so it`s
possible we end up with minor snow accumulations between a
dusting to around a half inch before the snow exits to the
east/southeast. Cloud cover persisting through much of the night
may hold up temperatures a bit, but still anticipate lows in
the teens and 20s for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The active pattern continues with another clipper expected to
impact the area later Thursday into Thursday night, bringing a
widespread 1-3" of snow and potentially a narrow band with a
little higher amounts. The latest EC ensemble mean has shifted
the axis of highest QPF further to the southwest, which would
place the highest snow amounts along/south of I-80. Confidence
remains low on the exact track of this system so decided to hold
off on a Winter Weather Advisory and let later shifts reassess
and hopefully narrow down placement of the ~2-4" snow band.
There could also be a period of a mix (sleet and freezing rain)
along the southern periphery of the steadiest precipitation as
the lower thermal profiles warm to near or slightly above
freezing and saturation decreases aloft near the -10 C level.
For timing, light snow should begin to enter western counties
by the mid/late afternoon, quickly overspreading much of the
area into the evening. However, if the more southern track
verifies then the far NE counties may miss out on most of the
snow. The precipitation will gradually end late Thursday night
from west to east.

Another round of snow is likely on Saturday with the NBM showing
moderate to high potential for 2"+ roughly along and south of
I-80, but then drop off quickly south of Highway 34. In the
wake of the second clipper system, an arctic air mass builds in
for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Both the GEFS and ECMWF
ensembles for 850 mb temperatures suggest magnitudes around 12
to 16 degrees C below zero, which would be some of the coldest
air yet this season. These 850 temperatures would be near the
daily minimum for December 14th at 12z (6 AM) per SPC sounding
climatology, so a very cold air mass for this time of the year.
Northwest winds look to stay elevated enough to combine with
negative single digit and lower teens low temperatures to
support widespread wind chill values of -15 to -30 degrees for
most of the CWA Sunday morning. Cold weather headlines will
likely be needed. After Sunday, temperatures look to gradually
warm as southerly return flow around the departing high should
moderate temperatures into the early portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light snow will continue to pass through the area over the next
few hours, bringing brief reductions in vis. This is covered by
a TEMPO group at DBQ/MLI, where we expect to see those impacts.
From there, we will continue to see overcast skies with MVFR
cigs until about 06z, with current obs showing cigs between
1500-2500 ft. Between 06-09z, we should start to see cigs lift
to around 4000 ft. Winds will remain breezy and out of the
northwest through the first half of tonight, generally between
10-15 KTs, with speeds decreasing after 06z. By 12z Thursday,
we will be seeing light and variable winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Gibbs/Uttech
AVIATION...Gunkel