102
FXUS63 KDVN 300207
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
907 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...Updated for cancellation of Wind Advisory...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds the rest of tonight, but likely below advisory
  criteria.

- Widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday through
  Thursday morning. There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
  severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions late in the work
  week, with an active weather pattern returning next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Tonight...strong WAA to continue with the winds decreasing just
below advisory levels after 10p, as the winds decouple. Clouds
will keep temperatures very warm overnight, with lows only
dropping into the upper 60s.

Active weather continues in the extended. A deep trough will move across
the northern Plains into the Midwest by 12z Thu. Another warm and
windy day is on tap for the area Wednesday, with the entire CWA
fully in the warm sector. Highs in the upper 70s/low 80s are
forecast, which is just shy of records for the day. A cold front
will track across Iowa through the daylight hours, with a wave of
low pressure moving along it. Strong moisture transport evident of
model PWs increasing to 1.5" (250% of normal) and upper level
dynamics support widespread showers and thunderstorms developing
along and behind the front. A dprog/dt of QPF reveals that the
highest totals over 1 inch has shifted west over the past 36
hours. Areas west of a line from Ottumwa to Dubuque now have the
highest probabilities of receiving 1" or more. Most areas are
progged to see 0.3" to 0.75" rainfall.

Taking a look at severe potential, SPC has maintained a Marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for Wednesday for the entire forecast area.
This makes sense due to the strong winds aloft, and will be
mentioned in the hazardous weather outlook. The limiting factor
will be instability, with forecast soundings maintaining a tall
skinny CAPE profile. That said, it doesn`t take much instability
to develop strong to severe storms with strong dynamics. An
interesting note from the 00z HREF CAPE/Shear joint
probabilities prog shows 40-60% likelihood of 500 J/Kg and 30kts
of 0-6 km shear Wednesday afternoon just to our west. The HRRR
spreads the area of showers and thunderstorms across the area
Wednesday night, gradually diminishing after midnight as it
pushes into Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Active weather continues in the extended.

Rains should end Thursday morning, possibly a few hours after 12Z in
Illinois. Thursday appears a dry, breezy, cooler day in the 50s.
Halloween evening should see decreasing winds, temperatures in the
mid 40s to near 50, and dry conditions for any Halloween activities.

Looking farther out, this weekend continues to appear wet as a
deep trough builds into the Southwest CONUS, with active,
moisture rich, southwest flow over the Midwest. A prolonged
period of rain and thunderstorms is forecast by nearly all
members of GEFS output, and strongly supported by the WPC
precipitation output. While the NBM spread in 72hr QPF values
ending 12z Tues remains high, most members show our CWA
receiving at least an inch of rain! An active start to the month
of November for sure and forecast rainfall if it verifies to
put a sizable dent in the ongoing drought!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Winds will remain gusty at times tonight into Wednesday from a
southerly direction ahead of a slow approaching cold front.
Gusts of 25-35 kt are possible. If the gusts remain toward the
higher end of that range or even a little above then it could
reduce impacts of low level wind shear (LLWS). However, with
models showing a 50-55 kt wind increasing around 2kft agl
tonight with the LLJ we`ve kept the mention of LLWS in the TAFs.
Later tonight through midday Wednesday there is some signal for
potentially a few elevated higher based showers within a warm
advection regime. Confidence is too low on occurrence and
impacts at a TAF site to include any mention at this time.
However, the shower and storm chances look to really increase
just beyond the end of the TAF period (00-06z Thursday), as the
cold front moves in. Strong gusty winds and hail will be primary
threats with a few of the storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

In addition to the record potential today and tomorrow, the
latest CPC 8-14 Day precipitation outlook depicts greater than
a 70% chance of near and/or above normal precipitation for the
Nov 5th-11th time period.

Record High Temperatures:

October 29:
KBRL: 85/1937
KCID: 84/1937
KDBQ: 85/1937
KMLI: 84/1937

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 29:
KBRL: 64/2004
KCID: 63/1946
KDBQ: 65/1946
KMLI: 68/1946

October 30:
KBRL: 62/1927
KCID: 61/1901
KDBQ: 62/1901
KMLI: 61/1927

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross/Haase
LONG TERM...Uttech/Haase
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...Gross