396
FXUS63 KDVN 031849
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
149 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
  this evening. There is a low severe threat should
  thunderstorms develop along and north of Interstate 80, with
  winds and hail being the main hazards.

- The Fourth of July holiday will be hot and humid with
  temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices between 95
  and 100.

- An active weather pattern begins this weekend and continues
  into next week. Warm and moist conditions return, supporting
  nearly daily shower and thunderstorm chances for the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Temperatures continue their rise this afternoon as the upper ridge
builds to the west of our area. Many locations reach 90 with upper
80s for the remaining areas. The overwhelming majority remain dry
today and tonight, allowing for holiday festivities to go
uninterrupted. There remains at least a low (<30%) chance for
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening near the
Iowa I-80 corridor. A weak disturbance may be enough to get
thunderstorms going with a limited cap in place. Confidence remains
low on any thunderstorms actually developing. If thunderstorms do
develop, they are expected to remain largely isolated with minimal
impacts likely. That being said, a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
severe weather applies to any thunderstorms as well, with hail and
winds the main hazards. Skies slowly clear tonight as temperatures
fall into the upper 60s and low 70s by Friday morning. The Fourth of
July holiday remains dry for the region. Unfortunately, the tradeoff
is heat and humidity. Widespread low 90s with heat indices pushing
the upper 90s to near 100 will be sweltering. Precautions should be
taken with this heat, especially for outdoor activities. Clear skies
with morning temperatures in the low 70s start this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

This weekend is forecast to be the start of a more active weather
period for the region. Several disturbances move through the area
this weekend through early next week. These disturbances may result
in near daily thunderstorm chances, especially during the afternoon
and evening. Saturday currently appears to be the most active of
these days. The deepest shortwave in the series of disturbances
moves across during Saturday afternoon, likely resulting in
scattered thunderstorms. With southwesterly winds keeping the area
warm and moist, a non-zero threat of severe weather can be
anticipated. It is too early for more details, but expect more
information on this as the day draws near. After Saturday, weaker
disturbances and more isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast.
Temperatures start hot in the 90s for Saturday before cooling
slightly into the mid to upper 80s for Sunday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light south winds
between 5 to 10 kts. A low (<30%) chance of thunderstorms during the
late afternoon and early evening (21Z-02Z) exists. If any
thunderstorms do develop, they would most likely develop near the
Iowa I-80 corridor, and remain largely isolated. TAF impacts are not
expected at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...NWS