328
FXUS63 KDVN 071049
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
449 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weekend storm system will bring the first rain/snow mix to
  the area along/north of I-80. The warm ground will prevent any
  accumulation for much of the area.

- A brief period of much colder than normal temperatures will be
  seen Sunday through Monday. Snow showers are possible on
  Sunday east of the Mississippi.

- A warming trend resulting in temperatures going above normal
  will be seen for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Breezy and warmer than normal temperatures will be seen today. Winds
will diminish with sunset resulting in near seasonable lows.
Attention then turns to the weekend system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Saturday/Saturday night
Assessment...near certainty (>95%) confidence of a system with
precipitation that will have minimally a mix north of I-80

The much talked about clipper-type system moves through the area
that will herald a brief change to much colder temperatures along
with a rain/snow mix.

While there are disagreements on timing/track, it does appear that
the first half of the morning will be dry across the area with
precipitation overspreading the area from west to east through
sunset.

The late morning arrival means that the precipitation will initially
be in the form of all rain that continues through mid-afternoon.
Progged thermal profiles of the atmosphere support this.

Late Saturday afternoon and evening is where it becomes more
interesting. The question is will the precipitation outrun the cold
air. Here the solutions are varied and one must take into account
the individuals biases of the models.

There is a loose reasonable agreement between the various solutions
that temperatures aloft start cooling late Saturday afternoon to
allow the beginning of a mix in in Highway 20 corridor west of
Dubuque that drops down to the I-80 corridor during the early
evening hours. Most if not all the precipitation will exit the area
around or shortly after midnight.

The most likely area for a complete changeover to snow looks to be
mainly north of Highway 30. However, progged ground temperatures are
still in the 40s so snowfall rates would have to be quite high in
order for any accumulation on the ground. HREF probabilities of 1
inch/hour snowfall rates are only 10-15 percent along Highway 20
west of Dubuque. Thus the most likely accumulations, which at best
would be a dusting, would be on cars, outdoor tables or decks.

After midnight Saturday night mainly dry conditions are expected.
There may or may not be some lingering light rain or flurries east
of the Mississippi.

Sunday/Sunday night
Assessment A near certainty (>95%) of much colder than normal
temperatures. Medium (40-60%) confidence of snow showers east of
the Mississippi

The core of the cold air settles over the area on Sunday with breezy
conditions. The combination of the cold air along with the upper low
and disturbances rotating around it sets the stage for isolated to
low end scattered snow showers, mainly east of the Mississippi.

The model consensus partially shows this with 20 percent chances for
snow showers in a mainly diurnal trend east of the Mississippi
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Monday through Thursday
Assessment...A near certainty (>95%) confidence of a warming trend

Monday will continue to be much colder than normal as the cold upper
low moves into the eastern Great Lakes.

Starting Tuesday and continuing the remainder of the week, an upper
level high will build into the Midwest bringing a warming trend that
will eventually result in above normal temperatures. Minor upper
level disturbances will be moving through the area with only an
increase in clouds to mark their passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Deep mixing of the atmosphere will occur from late morning
through sunset creating low level mechanical turbulence as winds
gust up to 20 knots. Winds to diminish by 00z/08 as a weak high
builds into the area. The next storm system will move into
eastern Iowa after 15z/08 bringing widespread MVFR/IFR conditions
with rain and eventually some light snow.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08