Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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102 FXUS63 KDVN 300207 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 907 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 ...Updated for cancellation of Wind Advisory... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds the rest of tonight, but likely below advisory criteria. - Widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday through Thursday morning. There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions late in the work week, with an active weather pattern returning next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Tonight...strong WAA to continue with the winds decreasing just below advisory levels after 10p, as the winds decouple. Clouds will keep temperatures very warm overnight, with lows only dropping into the upper 60s. Active weather continues in the extended. A deep trough will move across the northern Plains into the Midwest by 12z Thu. Another warm and windy day is on tap for the area Wednesday, with the entire CWA fully in the warm sector. Highs in the upper 70s/low 80s are forecast, which is just shy of records for the day. A cold front will track across Iowa through the daylight hours, with a wave of low pressure moving along it. Strong moisture transport evident of model PWs increasing to 1.5" (250% of normal) and upper level dynamics support widespread showers and thunderstorms developing along and behind the front. A dprog/dt of QPF reveals that the highest totals over 1 inch has shifted west over the past 36 hours. Areas west of a line from Ottumwa to Dubuque now have the highest probabilities of receiving 1" or more. Most areas are progged to see 0.3" to 0.75" rainfall. Taking a look at severe potential, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for Wednesday for the entire forecast area. This makes sense due to the strong winds aloft, and will be mentioned in the hazardous weather outlook. The limiting factor will be instability, with forecast soundings maintaining a tall skinny CAPE profile. That said, it doesn`t take much instability to develop strong to severe storms with strong dynamics. An interesting note from the 00z HREF CAPE/Shear joint probabilities prog shows 40-60% likelihood of 500 J/Kg and 30kts of 0-6 km shear Wednesday afternoon just to our west. The HRRR spreads the area of showers and thunderstorms across the area Wednesday night, gradually diminishing after midnight as it pushes into Illinois. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Active weather continues in the extended. Rains should end Thursday morning, possibly a few hours after 12Z in Illinois. Thursday appears a dry, breezy, cooler day in the 50s. Halloween evening should see decreasing winds, temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50, and dry conditions for any Halloween activities. Looking farther out, this weekend continues to appear wet as a deep trough builds into the Southwest CONUS, with active, moisture rich, southwest flow over the Midwest. A prolonged period of rain and thunderstorms is forecast by nearly all members of GEFS output, and strongly supported by the WPC precipitation output. While the NBM spread in 72hr QPF values ending 12z Tues remains high, most members show our CWA receiving at least an inch of rain! An active start to the month of November for sure and forecast rainfall if it verifies to put a sizable dent in the ongoing drought! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Winds will remain gusty at times tonight into Wednesday from a southerly direction ahead of a slow approaching cold front. Gusts of 25-35 kt are possible. If the gusts remain toward the higher end of that range or even a little above then it could reduce impacts of low level wind shear (LLWS). However, with models showing a 50-55 kt wind increasing around 2kft agl tonight with the LLJ we`ve kept the mention of LLWS in the TAFs. Later tonight through midday Wednesday there is some signal for potentially a few elevated higher based showers within a warm advection regime. Confidence is too low on occurrence and impacts at a TAF site to include any mention at this time. However, the shower and storm chances look to really increase just beyond the end of the TAF period (00-06z Thursday), as the cold front moves in. Strong gusty winds and hail will be primary threats with a few of the storms. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 In addition to the record potential today and tomorrow, the latest CPC 8-14 Day precipitation outlook depicts greater than a 70% chance of near and/or above normal precipitation for the Nov 5th-11th time period. Record High Temperatures: October 29: KBRL: 85/1937 KCID: 84/1937 KDBQ: 85/1937 KMLI: 84/1937 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 29: KBRL: 64/2004 KCID: 63/1946 KDBQ: 65/1946 KMLI: 68/1946 October 30: KBRL: 62/1927 KCID: 61/1901 KDBQ: 62/1901 KMLI: 61/1927 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross/Haase LONG TERM...Uttech/Haase AVIATION...McClure CLIMATE...Gross