688
FXUS63 KDVN 211145
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
545 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Passing system south of the area to bring rain across the
  southern forecast area today into this evening. Clouds will be slow
  to clear southward until tonight after the system passes.

- Nice weekend for this late in November on tap.

- Active next week with a couple systems to watch. Mild
  conditions continue into early next week, then cooling off
  toward the holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today...Will assess the fog in the south through publish time
whether to drop or let go through AM commute, but currently
widespread dense fog in those areas not really there warranting a
headline. Southern to central plains low pressure system still on
track to roll eastward along southern periphery of upper MS RVR
Valley ridge and baroclinicity, making for a isentropic lift rain
event acrs the southern third or more of the DVN CWA today into this
evening, before the system pulls off to the east and the high off to
the north seeps this way. Forcing and saturation suggest the
southern third to get 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch of rain by the time it
wanes this evening. with the higher amounts acrs the southern row of
the CWA counties...Memphis MO to Macomb IL.  Increasing/deepening
north flow may try to keep breaks and clearing holes eating at the
northern CWA cloud cover, while the southern 2/3s stay cloudy until
clearing later tonight. Uniform high temps in the mid 40s to near
50, and this may be a day were the north is a bit milder than the
south if they get the cloud breaks for at least partial sunshine.

Tonight...Southward dropping high pressure behind the departing low
will scour things out as the late afternoon and evening progress.
The clear out with sfc wind decrease and drier DPT feed in northerly
fetch will foster a much cooler night tonight, with lows in the 20s
to lower 30s acrs most of the area. With the incoming drying would
think that process would help limit fog production late tonight, but
there still may be some patchy fog in spots especially in the south
and southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Saturday and Sunday...While a Rex Block reigns acrs the western
third or so of the CONUS, the local area will be the beneficiary of
lee side ridging and southerly return flow making for a dry and mild
weekend for late November. As long as we get the sunshine, advected
in thermal parameters support highs in the 50s and diurnal swing
lows in the low to mid 30s Sunday morning. Sunday we could have some
60s in several locations. South winds and increasing high cloud
cover will make for milder lows by Monday morning.

Monday through Thursday...The latest suite of ensembles suggest the
upstream undercutting low pressure portion of the block out west
will look to roll toward the area by Monday night. Pre-wave warm
moist conveyor will look to fuel rain moving up acrs the area by
Monday afternoon and lasting well into Monday night, then moving off
to the east Tuesday morning. Early indications this may be another
tenth to near a half inch rainfall event. The mild temps look to
continue through at least Tuesday, then beyond in the mid to late
week period, it appears wavy with a lot of noise in the ensembles
making for low confidence at this juncture. Flow patterns and mid
CONUS baroclinic lay out at question and showing high variance, but
a general cooling trend may look to happen. The steering flow could
be split again and making it hard to determine where the prime west-
east baroclinic storm highways lay out acrs the central CONUS. Of
course this leads into a high profile holiday period late week and a
window to watch for trends of potential rain or snow makers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue acrs southeast IA into west
central IL through at least late morning, while northerly to
northeast sfc winds help the rest of the area improve VSBYs and
CIGs to VFR as the morning progresses. A passing low pressure
system to the south will keep light rain and lower CIGS at BRL
for much of the day and into early evening, before shunting off
to the east and ending. Incoming high pressure will make for VFR
conditions area-wide by midnight tonight, but will have to watch
for some patchy fog developing in a light and variable sfc wind
regime especially in the south where the rain occurs today.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ099.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ034-035.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12