232
FXUS63 KDVN 091814
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1214 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain possible during evening commute today,
  especially across northwest Illinois and extreme eastern Iowa
  mainly along/north of Hwy 30.

- Vigorous snow showers and the possibility of snow squalls will
  accompany a strong cold frontal passage overnight/early
  Wednesday morning.

- Windy conditions tonight/Wednesday with peak gusts possibly
  45-50+ mph timed for a several hour period after a cold front
  moves through.

- Additional clipper systems will likely result in periods of
  accumulating snow Thursday through Sunday.

- Temperatures will drop for the weekend with wind chills well
  below zero Friday and Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Initial clipper system and attendant WAA wing of light snow has moved
off to the east early this morning. Lingering low stratus extends
across parts of NE Iowa and N Illinois and monitoring for any
freezing drizzle potential in continued WAA. However, saturation
depth is in question and higher ceilings generally show to where
this potential seems very low, but non-zero at this time.

Meanwhile, upstream the next clipper system is diving southeast
toward the Northern Plains early this morning. This system will
deepen as it dives through the Upper Midwest tonight/early
Wednesday with ensemble and deterministic guidance in decent
agreement on a sub 990 mb surface low tracking from MN through WI.
There remains continued uncertainty with how warm temps will get
today given the snow cover and cloud cover, particularly across
the north. Have continued to follow toward cooler raw models for
highs today versus warmer NBM, especially across the northern
counties. Thus, have temps only into the lower 30s there, but low to
mid 40s far south. WAA wing of precipitation is anticipated to
push through the cwa late today through this evening, with soundings
generally supportive of limited ice to where the bulk of the
precipitation is expected to fall in the form of rain. Surface temps
will be critical for freezing rain potential, and with the freezing
line anticipated to be in our north this would support areas
near/north of Hwy 30 with the best chance for a transient period of
freezing rain leading to potential for some slippery travel for the
evening commute. Thus, have opted for a Winter Weather Advisory for
much of the area north of Hwy 30.

Ahead of the clipper this evening we`ll see south winds turn more
westerly and turn gusty with gusts over 30+ mph and temperatures
continuing to warm ahead of an attendant cold front, thus the
freezing rain potential looks to be rather fleeting at only a
couple hours at any one location across our northern counties.

Overnight into Wednesday morning we`ll see a strong cold front
sweep across the area. Some of the hi-res guidance is supporting
the potential for some robust snow showers and possibly snow squalls
accompanying the front given some weak surface based instability and
saturation coupled with with lapse rates reaching well into the DGZ.
Momentum transfer supports potential for some gusty winds possibly
over 40-45+ mph leading to sharply reduced visibilities and possibly
a quick minor coating of snow. After the front and snow showers
sweep through, the signal remains for at least advisory criteria
winds through the morning on Wednesday with strong CAA and
impressive 50+ kt winds at 850 mb along with a unidirectional
profile and steep lapse rate environment. Question is what`s the
best approach for a headline given the complex nature of the setup
between transient short period of impactful snow showers/squalls,
and concerns for ground blizzard - mainly with neighbors north/west.
In terms of the ground blizzard the feeling is age of recent added
snow (3 days) coupled with warming at or above freezing all
locations briefly this evening/tonight and also some light
rain/freezing rain may work in tandem to limit this potential in our
region. Bottom line, since we`ve still got some time wanted to allow
for that to continue to assess and nail down the risk and appropriate
headline(s).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The pattern looks to remain active throughout the period with
clipper systems bringing precip chances about every couple of
days or so. With that, the deterministic models and ensembles
are starting to converge on the next clipper and snow chance
arriving by Thursday night. Amounts look to be light with this
system. Arctic air will follow by the weekend. There is a signal
for a stronger clipper system potentially on Saturday, which
combined with colder SLRs in the arctic airmass may result in
the potential for several inches of accumulation for parts of
the area. Blustery winds will also accompany the arctic air and
could result in wind chills potentially nearing -25F at times
across our northern counties over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Active weather expected in this TAF period with strong winds,
LLWS, periods of light precipitation and low clouds. Light
freezing rain is possible this evening, mainly at DBQ with
temperatures initially around freezing before warming into
tonight. A strong area of low pressure will pass to the north
across Wisconsin tonight and bring a cold front through the
area, leading to very strong WNW to NW winds up to 35 - 45 kts
into Wednesday AM. The gusty winds will likely be accompanied by
a period of either snow showers or a steadier light snow,
resulting in visibility reductions to MVFR/IFR; expect
prevailing MVFR ceilings at all the terminals later tonight into
Wednesday AM, and IFR possible at DBQ. Additionally, blowing
snow could become a concern at CID with low confidence on the
impact to visibility at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     tonight for ILZ001-002-007.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Uttech