152
FXUS63 KDVN 311933
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Recent heavy rains over the past 7-10 days has rivers rising
  with several in or projected to go into flood.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue the hazy skies
  through Friday. An Air Quality Alert is in effect through
  Friday.

- The advertised pattern change will bring cooler and less humid
  conditions through the weekend. Low rain chances (10-30
  percent) will return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a broad upper trough across the Great Lakes.
Surface high pressure was over Minnesota with northerly low
level flow over the area. This continues to usher in a cooler
and drier airmass. The 12z sounding out of GRB measured a 0.48in
PW value and this drier air will be moving towards the area.
Afternoon dewpoints were dropping into the lower to middle 50s!
Winds were northeasterly with a few gusts around 20kts. One
other feature of interest was the smoke from Canadian wildfires
continuing to produce hazy skies with visibilities in the 2-5
mile range.

This Afternoon through Friday: Expectations are for the hazy
skies to continue as shown in the recent runs of the HRRR and
RRFS smoke tools. The Air Quality Alert is now in effect through
Friday. The surface low will slide southeast into Wisconsin
tonight with winds becoming light. Mostly clear skies, light
winds and a dry airmass should allow for excellent radiational
cooling and expect low temps to fall about 10 degrees below
average into the lower to middle 50s. These will be very close
to record low temps for a few locations and see the climate
section below for the records.

HRRR and RRFS suggest we may see some additional smoke/haze
tomorrow given the continued northeast winds. High temps in the
middle to upper 70s are likely. Another cool night is expected
Friday night with lows again in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The Weekend: Ensembles continue to be in strong agreement that
northwest flow aloft will continue. This will allow for below
average highs and lows. NBM high temp spreads are quite small
(2-4 deg) for the weekend. The ECMWF Shift of Tails tool
continues to show a signal for anomalously cool highs/lows
which leads to high confidence in highs in the 70s and lows in
the 50s. This is 10 degrees below average for late July. No
precipitation is expected this weekend.

Early next week: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a
signal that the upper ridge across the southwest will build back
northeast. This would allow for upper level disturbances to
move back down towards the area however confidence is low and
precip chances remain below 30 percent Monday through Wednesday.
High temps will slowly climb a few degrees each day with highs
getting closer to average by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

MVFR VSBYS from Canadian wildfire smoke will persist across
eastern Iowa and northern Illinois through most of the TAF
period. There is the possibility that conditions improve to VFR
on Friday however confidence is low and MVFR vis could remain
further. Winds will remain out of the northeast around 10kts
with gusts to 20kts this afternoon, decreasing tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

August 1:
KBRL: 54/1968
KDBQ: 51/1992
KMLI: 55/1998


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield