762
FXUS63 KDTX 060714
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
314 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions today for the majority of the area though a few
isolated pop-up showers possible this afternoon south of M-59.

- Another chance of showers Sunday-Tuesday with slightly below
normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SE MI holds between the quasi-stationary cold front over central OH
and surface high pressure over the northern Great Lakes resulting in
steady albeit relatively light northeasterly flow. This drier NE
wind in combination with a weak shortwave lifting along the frontal
boundary is expected to set up a respectable moisture gradient
across the region today as areas roughly north of M-59 see surface
Td`s only in the lower 50s to 40s with areas to the south holding in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Cloud cover over these northern areas
likely is confined to mid/high cloud given the dry near-surface
advection allowing for filtered sun and pushing highs into the mid
to upper 70s. In the south, greater moisture depth keeps skies
mostly cloudy and temps in the lower 70s. Additionally, this
supports chances for isolated showers to flare up with diurnal
heating which the bulk of higher-res models are keying off of. Could
have a rumble thunder in any activity near the Ohio border as a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE develop. Main update from running forecast
was to introduce 15-20% PoPs up to the I-96 corridor through this
evening.

Frontal boundary finally releases east with the surface low allowing
hte aforementioned high to fully build across the area Saturday.
Quiet pattern is shortlived as a compact shortwave ejects out of the
central Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/Great Lakes daytime
Sunday. The exact track of this low still carries some level of
uncertainty with mid-range model solutions still show a spread of
outcomes. On one extreme is the 00Z Canadian that keeps the wave
south enough for rain to completely miss SE MI. On the other extreme
is the 00Z NAM that track it directly over southern lower MI. The
00Z ECMWF/GFS fall in between clipping SE MI mainly south of M-59.
Main point of difference comes from the interaction with a broad mid-
upper dropping out of the northern PLains towards the Great Lakes.
NBM PoPs are fairly broad-brushed with 30-40% however given the
model spread, will keep these unchanged for now. Surface cold front
associated with this upper trough crosses Sunday night-Monday
morning- much higher confidence in these shower chances along the
fropa.

Upper troughing gradually drifts over the central Great Lakes
through the first half of next work week maintaining slightly below
average temps and disorganized diurnal shower chances. Low amplitude
longwave ridging then looks to follow late week offering a return to
summer-like temperatures.

&&

.MARINE...

A diffuse pressure pattern exists over the Great Lakes today with
weak low pressure departing the Ohio Valley and Canadian high
pressure moving into the northern Great Lakes. A weak northerly flow
pattern persists, with a low chance for pop up showers to develop
this afternoon over Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair. By Saturday, the high
pressure system will govern conditions across the entire forecast
area to support dry weather and favorable marine conditions.
Forecast models are now signaling a low chance for a shower during
the day Sunday, but still favor Sunday night into early next week as
the more confident opportunity to see precipitation as a front and
upper low move into the area. No wind or wave headlines are
anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

AVIATION...

High pressure encroaching from the northwest as a frontal boundary
remains stalled across northern OH has brought clearing across the
north with lingering pockets of MVFR clouds and MVFR haze early
tonight across the southern Metro terminals. Observations have
trended into periods of low VFR across the DTW airspace as dry air
is starting to have slightly greater influence, though MVFR/IFR
ceilings persist just along the southern MI border. Some guidance
continues to show the low level moisture and clouds holding in place
across the southern metro terminals and becoming more solidly MVFR
with possible IFR reaching back up into the southern Metro terminals
throughout the early morning hours. Confidence on the cloud trends
is low. Should begin to see better clearing into VFR by this
afternoon with a better push of dry air expected. Winds expected to
hold out of the N-NE at 5-10 knots through bulk TAF period.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceilings below 5000 feet through tomorrow.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....AA


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