830
FXUS63 KDLH 112326
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will keep near-critical fire weather conditions
  in place through early evening.

- Rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder tonight into Tuesday
  morning (60-80%) and again Thursday into Friday (40-60%).

- Briefly cooler tomorrow in spots before warming into the
  weekend with highs in the 70s to low 80s by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure was in control across the Northland early this
afternoon. Low pressure was located in southern Saskatchewan
with a warm front extending into eastern Montana, western and
southern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, and into northern
Missouri. This low will be responsible for rain chances across
the region later tonight into Tuesday. With the high centered
over Lake Superior, southerly winds on the western periphery of
the high were starting to increase across across Minnesota with
isolated gusts to 15 to 20 mph. RH values were in the 20-30%
range with the lowest values west of US 53 in Minnesota. With
the increased winds and better mixing, values may drop below 20%
in the Brainerd Lakes area yet this afternoon leading to near-
critical fire weather conditions.

The low pressure currently across southern Saskatchewan will
drop southeastward tonight across North Dakota and into northern
Minnesota Tuesday morning. This will spread showers across the
Northland tonight into Tuesday morning with the best chances
(60-80%) along and east of US 53/I-35. A few embedded rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out with some weak MUCAPE in place and
some small hail will also be possible with low freezing levels.
Most of the shower activity will move east of the region by
midday, but wraparound showers may linger across the Arrowhead
and northwest Wisconsin into the evening hours. Highs Tuesday
will be quite variable with upper 40s and lower 50s along the
international border to the upper 60s to near 70 in our southern
zones.

High pressure will move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday
bringing dry conditions and highs ranging from the upper 50s in
eastern areas to near 70 in western areas. The upper ridge moves
through on Thursday with rainfall chances returning late
Thursday into Friday as another low develops across the northern
High Plains and moves northeastward into northwestern Ontario
Friday night. This will bring a cold front through the Northland
Friday. Depending on the timing of the front, breezy winds and
dry conditions may bring fire weather conditions to the region
Friday afternoon. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s with
cooler conditions along the North Shore before warming into the
70s and lower 80s by Friday with 60s near the lake. Rainfall
chances for late Thursday into Friday will be around 40-60%,
which is an increase from the previous package. Highs will
remain in the 60s and 70s for the weekend with generally dry
conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure is departing to the east this evening with upper level
clouds starting to spill in from the west. A strong low level jet is
expected to surge into the region later this evening leading to low
level wind shear. This will also help to promote the growth of some
rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible. A low
pressure system will be moving across the region through the
forecast period leading to abrupt changes in wind directions. By
tomorrow afternoon winds will be mostly out of the west.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 423 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Northeasterly flow funneling into the Twin Ports this evening is
producing some increased winds and higher waves at the head of
the Lake. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this short
time period.

Winds becoming northerly to northwesterly through the day
Tuesday as a front works through. Speeds will be around 5 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots near the Twin Ports and near
Grand Portage during the afternoon and evening hours. The
southeasterly winds ahead of the front may lead to waves of 2 to
4 feet along parts of the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed. Winds then remain northerly for Wednesday at 5 to
15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Dry conditions will persist this afternoon with minimum
relative humidity values falling into the low 20s with isolated
upper teens. Winds will generally be out of the south at 15 mph
or less, but daytime mixing could bring localized gusts up to 20
mph. Rain chances increase tonight into Tuesday. Only light
accumulations are expected, but a few spots could see a couple
tenths of an inch from moderate rain under storms. Dry
conditions return for Wednesday with afternoon RH values below
35%.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...BJH/Britt
FIRE WEATHER...BJH