276
FXUS63 KDLH 230524
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1124 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next round of accumulating snowfall is expected Sunday
  night through Monday night. There is a 90 percent chance of at
  least an inch of snow north of the Iron Range into the
  Arrowhead and over lake-effect portions of northwest
  Wisconsin. The chance of 3 inches or more is 40 percent along
  the North Shore and 60 percent over northern Iron County.

- High temperatures next Thursday into next weekend will trend 4
  to 12 degrees below normal, which, while colder than the past
  few weeks, is not anomalously cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Radar echoes associated with a zone of 850 to 750 mb
frontogenetic forcing for ascent will propagate east-southeast
across northern Minnesota this evening. There is sufficient dry
air below the cloud-bearing layer to sublimate the snow before
it reaches the surface. Thus we expect a few flurries at most as
those echoes pass overhead.

Clouds linger over the Northland tonight and Saturday beneath
cool cyclonic flow. High temps will reach the low to upper 30s.
Another fairly quiet day is on tap for Sunday with temperatures
trending a few degrees warmer. Highs will be in they low 30s to
low 40s.

A shortwave trough will propagate eastward out of the northern
Plains and Canadian Prairies Sunday into Monday. Light
precipitation is forecast to move across the Northland Sunday
night through Monday night. The trough will be followed by a
surge of cold air aloft, which will support lake-effect snow
over the South Shore Monday into Monday night. As of this
afternoon the chance of at least an inch of snow is around 90
percent north of the Iron Range and east into the Arrowhead.
Odds trend lower farther south where there is a greater
potential for rain due to warmer temperatures. The chance of 3
inches or more is limited to the higher terrain of the North
Shore and over northern Iron County.

A few ensemble members and the deterministic ECMWF feature a
stronger storm system with higher QPF. Those solutions would
yield up to 5 inches of snow and are a far outlier from the rest
of the guidance pack as of this afternoon.

Northwest winds aloft remain in place in the wake of the trough
Tuesday and Wednesday keeping cold air in place over the
Northland. Look for colder temperatures next week and the
potential for lake-effect snow to persist Tuesday and Wednesday.

The potential for widespread accumulating snow returns
Thanksgiving through next weekend. At the moment there are a
wide variety of solutions, some of which would produce a couple
inches of snow. None of the models feature a significant storm
system over the Northland for the holiday period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Low MVFR to IFR ceilings over far northeastern Minnesota and
portions of northwest Wisconsin will continue through tonight
into Saturday morning. DLH is right on the edge of this stratus
due to downsloping just east of the airport, which has been
causing the ceiling to bounce up and down this evening.
However, since the MVFR stratus will remain in close vicinity to
the airport, so opted to just leave the TAF as MVFR all night.
BRD is VFR for the time being, but closer to morning, a narrow
band of frontogenesis will bring in brief MVFR ceilings and
possible flurries. These flurries will likely not reach the
ground due to a dry layer in the low levels, so left in VCSH for
the few hours they are expected. VFR conditions return Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

North to northwest winds generally in the 5 to 15 knot range.
Gusts near Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor will be between 15
and 20 knots and occasionally to 25 knots. The gusts over that
area will decrease as winds back northwesterly tonight.
Northwest winds will be the norm for Saturday. A low pressure
system will move across the region Sunday and Monday which will
bring strong easterly winds Sunday backing northwest for Monday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Huyck