Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
368 FXXX12 KWNP 180031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels. Region 4340 (N14, L=111) decayed to plage. Region 4341 (S11E30, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M2.1/2b flare at 17/1029 UTC, which was the strongest of the period. Later in the period, the region produced an M1.1/1n flare at 17/2351 UTC. Region 4343 (S10W22, Dai/beta-delta) was responsible for lower level C-class flares while maintaining a relatively weak delta signature in its intermediate penumbra. Region 4344 (N19E23, Cro/beta) underwent minor evolution as it gained additional trailing spots and leading rudimentary penumbra. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels with a few isolated M-class flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate Radio blackouts) through 20 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,760 pfu at 17/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 20 Jan under sustained CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field averaged 7-8 nT while the Bz component was primarily northward or near neutral with only a few brief southward deflections reaching -5 to -6 nT. Solar wind speeds roughly ranged 670-750 km/s with a max near 780 km/s. Phi was in a positive (Away) solar sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 20 Jan as influence from a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole will continue over the next three days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity primarily ranged from unsettled to active levels with an early G1 (Minor) storming period. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 18 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected 19-20 Jan as positive polarity CH HSS effects continue, but gradually weaken.