323
FXXX12 KWNP 111231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4465 (N09E37,
Dhi/beta-gamma-delta) was the source of the most notable events of the
period, including a long-duration C6.7/1f flare observed at 11/0002 UTC
and an impulsive C9.0 flare at 11/0828 UTC.

There are five numbered regions on the disk. Region 4464 (S12W09,
Dsi/beta-gamma) showed new flux emergence, developing a mixed polarity
configuration. Region 4465 continues to be the most complex on the disk,
with some notable new flux emergence directly ahead of its mature,
positive polarity lead spot, alongside a newly developed delta
configuration within the collection of spots north of the primary spot.
All other regions were stable or in a state of decay.

Several eruptive signatures accompanied the long-duration C6.7/1f flare
from Region 4465 at 11/0002 UTC. Discreet and wideband radio emissions
were observed, including a Type IV radio sweep and a Type II radio sweep
with an estimated shock velocity of 918 km/s. An associated CME was
first observed in STEREO COR2 at 11/0053 UTC and GOES CCOR1 at 11/0100
UTC. Preliminary analysis suggests glancing influences 13-14 June. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph arrays.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 13 June, with
a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring driven primarily by
Regions 4464 and 4465.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. Although a brief peak flux of 1,080 pfu was observed
at 10/1540 UTC, the high alert threshold was not reached as three
consecutive readings did not remain above 1,000 pfu. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 12 June, before rising to high levels on 13 June
in response to high-speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels through 13 June.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions. Total
magnetic field (Bt) initially averaged near 5 nT before reaching a peak
of 10 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was variable, spending
significant intervals deflected southward late in the period with a
maximum deflection of -10 nT. Solar wind speeds were stable between 350
and 400 km/s. The phi angle recorded several sporadic solar sector
boundary crossings in the middle of the period before establishing a
stable orientation in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements are expected 11 June as a corotating interaction
region (CIR) precedes onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (-CH HSS). Elevated solar wind conditions driven by the
stream are expected to persist through 13 June, around which time
additional enhancements are possible due to combining CME influences
from the eruptions that departed the Sun on 09 June and 11 June.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to reach unsettled levels on
11 June due to a CIR preceding the -CH HSS. Unsettled to active
conditions, with a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming, are anticipated on 12 June with -CH HSS onset. Active to G1
(Minor) storming levels are anticipated on 13 June due to the
persistence of the high-speed stream and the arrival of glancing CME
influences from the 09 June and 11 June events.