946
FXUS63 KDDC 312050
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nighttime thunderstorm systems likely to move out across west
  central and southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday Night.

- The cool, wetter pattern will likely continue through the end
  of the weekend with daily highs remaining in the 80s for most.

- Hot, dry pattern likely to redevelop again toward the middle
  part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Today, western Kansas found itself well into the cooler air mass,
but it also remained quite moist with dewpoints remaining in the
lower to mid 60s across much of the region as afternoon temperatures
warmed to just a little bit above 80F as of 20Z (3 PM CDT). There
remained quite a bit of fair weather cumulus out there given the
fairly low afternoon temperature-dewpoint spreads. No rain is in the
forecast this afternoon and tonight across the DDC CWA, as there is
an absence of low level convergence to initiate convective
development.

Later tonight, thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Colorado
will organize into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they move
east toward northwestern Kansas overnight. Model consensus suggests
a MCS will likely survive well into the night, but remaining north
of southwest Kansas, so we will keep POPs out of the southwest KS
area tonight. Friday and Friday night, we will likely see a repeat
of storm development across central/eastern Colorado, moving into
far western Kansas late into the night as an upper level jet core
remains in place from Nevada east into western Kansas. This will
keep the nightly trend of MCS activity moving into western Kansas
all the way through Saturday Night and perhaps even Sunday/Sunday
Night. For this reason, POPs will be in the 40-60% range, mainly in
the 12-hr nighttime periods over the weekend.

As we head into the next workweek, the climatological summer
subtropical high will redevelop across the Southern Rockies and
expand/strengthen out across Colorado and into western Kansas by mid
next week. This will result in a hotter, drier sensible weather set
up, and we will see afternoon high temperatures back into the mid to
upper 90s by around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A cool, moist air mass will remain across western Kansas through
the period, and this will result in the redevelopment of
widespread low stratus clouds tonight. Expect all terminals DDC,
GCK, LBL, and HYS to see flight category lower well down into
the IFR range later tonight with at least a 30% chance of flight
category down into LIFR due to very low ceiling below 500 feet
and/or visibility below one mile. It will likely take much of
the morning after sunrise to climb out of IFR to MVFR with a
return to VFR most likely at the end of this TAF period or more
likely during the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid