450
FXUS63 KDDC 070400
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return
  tonight.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

WV imagery indicates an elongated upper level trough, extending from
the Northern Plains southwest into the Great Basin, pushing slowly
eastward. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary extends
northeast from the Texas Panhandle up into eastern Kansas while a
broad area of high pressure is sliding southeast through the Dakotas.

Rain chances (40-60%) pick back up later this evening/overnight as
the SREF indicates the upper level trough transitioning eastward
through the Central Plains, pushing the previously mentioned stalled
boundary southward into Oklahoma. Areas of light/moderate rain are
forecast to develop later this evening in an axis of post-frontal H7
frontogenetic banding setting up across much of southwest/central
Kansas in wake of the departing frontal boundary. A few rumbles
of thunder cannot be ruled out with the RAP13 suggesting minimal
instability returning overnight with MUCAPE values pushing upward
of 500 J/kg. The best chance for additional rain will be across
south central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where the
HREF indicates a 50-70% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25
of an inch by daybreak Tuesday morning. Precip chances then taper
off through the day Tuesday as the upper level shortwave moves off
to the east across the Upper Midwest. Minimal rain chances (<20%)
return to southern portions of southwest Kansas into south central
Kansas early Wednesday as H5 vort maxima cresting a slowly building
upper level ridge, eject out of the Southern Rockies into the
panhandles of Oklahoma/Texas. However, any potential rain amounts
are expected to be fairly insignificant.

Near normal temperatures are forecast tonight as surface high
pressure sliding southeast through the Northern Plains into the
Central Plains helps reinforce a cooler air mass across the high
plains of western Kansas. With the HREF showing a 70-90% probability
of temperatures dropping below 50F in west central Kansas and much
of southwest Kansas to better than a 80% probability of temperatures
slipping below 55F in south central Kansas, look for lows generally
in the 40s(F) out west with the lower/mid 50s(F) in south central
Kansas. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool Tuesday as surface
high pressure sliding southeast through the Central Plains reinforces
a cooler air mass within a northeasterly upslope flow across
southwest/central Kansas, not to mention increased cloud cover
throughout the day. Expect afternoon highs only up into the 50s out
near the Colorado line where the HREF paints a 50-70% probability
of temperatures exceeding 55F to the lower/mid 60s(F) in south central
Kansas where the HREF indicates a 90% probability of temperatures
topping 60F. Temperatures will continue to warm into Wednesday as
departing surface high pressure gives way to southerlies across
southwest/central Kansas, helping draw warmer air back into the
area with H85 temperatures pushing above 10C in central Kansas
to near 15C near the Colorado line. Should see afternoon highs
well into the 60s(F) to potentially the lower 70s(F).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

There is a low confidence forecast on shra/tsra through the overnight
hours. Models have somewhat backed off on this potential. As a result,
will continue with the PROB30 groups in the TAFs through the early
morning hours. Chances of any major aviation impacts are low otherwise.
LIFR/IFR cigs will continue to exist as through the morning as there
is still considerable low level moisture in the atmosphere. Improvement
to VFR is expected by mid to late morning as drier air eventually
advects in. Winds will be N to NE 5-15 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden