909
FXUS63 KDDC 230552
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1152 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly warm afternoon temperatures with highs in the lower to
  mid 60s remain likely through Sunday afternoon.

- Cold front Sunday Night into Monday to usher in much cooler
  air along with strong north winds 25+ mph at times.

- Light wintry precipitation event possible, focused mainly on
  Wednesday Night, with models showing around 75% probability of
  precipitation type being snow for Dodge City (higher north,
  lower south).

- Wintry precipitation event Wednesday Night would likely be
  quite light, however it will be timed around the busiest
  travel day/evening of the year right before Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A fairly flat high pressure ridge in the mid-upper troposphere
continued to overspread the Central Plains, which included some high
level cloud. The high cloud has had seemingly no impact on afternoon
temperatures as hourly temps have been following fairly closely 75th
percentile NBM. Given this, we will incorporate 75th percentile for
afternoon temperatures through Sunday...until the next cold front
pushes in...which won`t be until after sunset Sunday. We will see a
pre-frontal trough axis move east across southwest Kansas on Sunday,
and this will act to reduce wind speed potential. Tightest MSLP
gradient on Sunday will be farther east/southeast across Oklahoma
and south-central/southeast Kansas. The going forecast of highs in
the lower to mid 60s across much of our forecast region still look
good with no changes of significance in this latest forecast update.

The strongest cold air advection will move in Sunday Night and
continue through the day Monday. Stronger isallobaric wind due to
fairly strong MSLP rises behind the front will support fairly strong
surface winds in 15 to 25 knot range. We have bumped up winds in the
grids to follow 75th percentile, and as we get closer to the frontal
passage, these may need to be bumped up even more.

The next weather maker Wednesday Night or Thursday does not look
quite as impressive in the 12Z global model suite, however there is
not enough confidence to remove POPs Wednesday Night, even though
NBM has lowered POPs below mentionable (15%) for a good portion of
the forecast area. We made sure to maintain 15+ POPs for at least
three-quarters of our forecast area, and thanks to neighbors GID,
GLD, and ICT offices for following suit. Regardless, the Wednesday
Night wave will not support heavy or even moderate precipitation
given how fast the disturbance will be moving east. But, the fast-
moving wave will be interacting with a fairly intense baroclinic
zone, so at least light accumulating precipitation still seems quite
plausible. As far as precipitation type goes, a little less than
half of 100-member Grand Ensemble members (52%) have measurable snow
(>= 0.1") through Thursday evening with 69% of the membership has at
least 0.01" of total precipitation through Thursday
evening...implying that probability of snow among the entire Grand
Ensemble membership is around 75%. So, there is fairly high
confidence that if we do get light precip Wednesday Night across
southwest Kansas, most or all of it will be in the form of snow.
Again, though, this does not look like a significant winter event,
but given the sensitive travel time before Thanksgiving, it is
something we will need to continue to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies toward
the latter half of the period. This will result in light south
winds increasing to about 10 kts. VFR conditions are expected,
with only some high level cloudiness.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch