604
FXUS63 KDDC 232310
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snows likely for all of southwest Kansas with two
  rounds of snow Friday night into Saturday morning and again
  Saturday night into Monday morning with the second wave still
  with uncertainty

- Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory in effect;
  mainly along and east of Highway 183 corridor are the areas
  that have the highest probabilities of receiving greater than
  5 inches of snow...widespread winter weather impacts are
  likely

- Coldest air of the season starts today and lasts through
  Monday morning with dangerous wind chills around -15 to -20
  and sub zero morning lows Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
  mornings. Cold Weather Advisory is currently in effect for the
  arctic air

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The winter storm system that has been messaged all week has finally
arrived. Temperatures this morning plummeted and wind chills have
kept steady at around -12 to -17 degrees with the coldest air across
the northern counties. Additionally, the slow and light snow start
has begun more or less as expected. Light snow across the western
and northern counties started this morning and continued. Little
accumulation has developed yet, but Friday`s snowfall is still on
track. Models and ensembles have continued yesterday`s signal of a
maxima band of snow roughly in a east-west direction around Hays.
Almost all moderate snowfall across SW Kansas is expected to begin
around 6 PM. Impacts prior to that onset is very minimal. Two
potential waves of snowfall is expected with the more certain and
larger of the two being tonight through Sunday morning. Widespread
amounts ranging from 2-5" by sunrise tomorrow is representative of
ensemble means.

The difficulty surrounding the snowfall forecast is the second wave.
As discussed in prior AFDs, the primary failure points appeared to
be track and timing. All week those parameters have held steady in
being favorable for heavy snowfall totals approaching 6-8". As the
event begins, ensembles and CAMs are quickly pulling back away from
this solution via a variety of factors. The collocated upper-level
jets that were previously thought to provide tremendous lift has
misaligned and moved southward. Additionally, a sharper/quicker
burst of arctic air will shift the bulk of the isentropic lift
southward and limit the duration of snowfall on Saturday. What could
have been an additional 3-5 inches may now only be another 1-3".
This has dropped expected totals nearly 2" across the CWA with areas
in the Winter Storm Warning now expecting a ballpark of 4-6". As
always, localized areas may received significantly more or less than
these figures and surrounding areas. It should be noted that if the
recent pessimistic trends continue, final amounts may even be
another inch or two less than current forecasts. That question will
be the focus of the upcoming forecasts aside from the very cold air.

The forecasting of the cold air is much simpler. Models and
ensembles have had a decent grasp the last few runs albeit a few
degrees to warm. From a headline perspective, the Cold Weather
Advisory has already been justified and is expected to continue to
be over the coming days. The difficulty is that the criteria for a
Extreme Cold Warning is -20 degrees, right around where wind chill
minimums are expected to reach. Other than a potential upgrade of
the advisory, the wind chills and headlines will hold firm. Sunday
is progged to be too warm to keep the advisory going through Sunday
night, so a separate product may be needed. Still being a few days
out and the uncertainty between the Cold Weather Advisory and
Extreme Cold Warning, the headline will hold off for a couple more
forecast cycles. Make no mistake though, Sunday night into Monday
morning will still be very cold with wind chills as low as -22
degrees.

Next week is forecast to be quiet after the winter storm system
moves through and exits. Winds will be cooler than normal, but not
as extreme as this weekend with highs in the 20-40s and fluctuating.
Long-ranged ensembles keep the week dry until Friday where chances
jump to around 20%. Specifics are not worth talking about since the
current system still needs to be finished resolving before
declarative statements can be made about future systems. In the
meantime, take precautions with the very cold by dressing
appropriately and staying warm. Take travel precautions and prepare
for the potential of very hazardous travel conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Surface and radar observations show light to moderate snowfall
has overspread all of southwest KS, with all terminals in
IFR/LIFR cigs and vis. Little to no changes in flight category
are expected through much of the period as this weather system
passes through, with conditions only beginning to improve around
21Z Saturday. Otherwise, current modest northeast winds aoa 12
kts will weaken to light and variable over the next few hours,
and continue through the end of the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ030-031-
044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Springer