601
ACUS48 KWNS 310909
SWOD48
SPC AC 310908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The extended range will primarily feature the potential for
Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong
instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into
parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California
coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward
and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast
uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing
will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude
varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations
of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of
the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the
extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely
overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of
the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the
developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is
possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern
makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes
severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2025