055
FNUS28 KWNS 122211
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough ejects into the northern Plains on Day
3/Thursday while a surface low shifts into Manitoba. At the surface,
a strong, dry cold front extending south of the low sweeps into the
Upper Midwest bringing widespread fire weather concerns to portions
of the northern Plains and central High plains. Breezy west winds
and dry conditions should linger over portions of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as the surface low
translates eastward into Ontario. A large scale upper trough enters
the western U.S. by the end of the weekend bringing a fire weather
threat, including breezy southwest winds and very dry conditions, to
portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners regions on Day
5/Saturday, shifting into the Southwest by Day 6/Sunday.

...Day 3/Thursday...
...Northern Plains...
Strong, deep layer westerly winds behind a powerful cold front under
a similarly robust mid-level jet will bring a fire weather threat to
much of Northern Plains on Day 3/Thursday. West winds of 35-45 mph
are possible with higher gusts across the Plains of MT and terrain
favored areas in central and eastern WY. A mixed fuels picture
across the region, including green up across southeastern MT and ND,
could somewhat mitigate the fire environment precluding introduction
of 70% critical probabilities within the expanded 40% area.

...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Surface lee troughing over the TX Panhandle under modest westerly
flow aloft will promote enhanced southwesterly winds from southern
NM into the OK/TX Panhandles Day 3/Thursday. A subtle embedded short
wave feature shifting into Southern Plains could aid in high-based
thunderstorm development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles,
with deeper boundary layer moisture shunted to the east. A 10% dry
thunderstorm probability was introduced.

...Day 4/Friday - Northern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal westerly flow will continue to bring fire weather
concerns to portions of the Northern Plains on Day 4/Friday. Fuels
remain largely receptive although notable green up in some areas may
suppress wildfire spread potential.

Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday - Great Basin, Four Corners and Southwest...

A larger scale trough impinges upon the western CONUS by the
weekend, reintroducing dry conditions and breezy southwest winds
into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions by Day 5/Saturday. As
the trough migrates eastward, the fire weather threat shifts into
the Southwest on Day 6/Sunday, where several days of drying could
support a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread.

..Williams.. 05/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$