778
FNUS28 KWNS 312017
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

...Great Basin...
Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through
mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater
divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could
potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of
uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West.
Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far
south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not
clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased
in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency
are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area.

...Northwest...
Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest
through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon.
With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation
that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending
downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps
Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly
northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is
too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend
worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough
mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling
to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler
temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning
could occur if drier conditions were to occur.

..Wendt.. 07/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$