259
FXUS65 KCYS 120855
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
255 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions due to gusty winds and low
  humidity continue through Friday evening across the High
  Plains.

- Temporary relief from the critical fire weather conditions
  will come this weekend with cooler temperatures and slight
  chances for a few showers and thunderstorms.

- Fire weather concerns will escalate once again by the middle
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Pretty chilly temperatures early this morning with clear skies
and good radiational cooling for mid June. Widespread 40s and
low 40s have been observed so far, with a few locations in the
upper 30s (Saratoga and vicinity). Expect these temperatures to
lower a few more degrees before sunrise. Temperatures are
forecast to rebound today with lighter winds and midlevel winds
backing into the west during the day. Pleasant day to end the
work-week with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s, warmest
below elevations of 4500 feet. A few locations across western
Nebraska could see the low 90s this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies. Other than fire weather concerns and active fires over
portions of the area, little to no weather impacts expected
today. Not as cool tonight with low temperatures in the middle
40s to middle 50s by early Saturday morning.

Models show the next Canadian cold front diving south into
Wyoming late this evening and early Saturday morning. FROPA
should be pretty quick, with the cold front moving into northern
Colorado by sunrise early Saturday morning. Much cooler Saturday
with highs struggling to reach 70 to 75 degrees across most of
the area, warmest over the Interstate 80 corridor. Further
north, some low clouds are possible with highs in the 60s over
near Douglas, Lusk, and Chadron. Probability of precipitation
has lowered quite a bit behind this front compared to a few days
ago. This is due to a pretty shallow moist layer near the
shallow frontal inversion along with little or no instability at
all. Kept a slight chance of showers, mainly near the mountains
and up north along the US highway 20. Another chilly night
Saturday night with lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The weather for Sunday can be a little tricky. A weak shortwave
trough will be dropping through the Intermountain West as the
Parent low sits and spins over the Great Lakes region of the US.
There doesn`t appear to be very much moisture associated with
this shortwave and the models are depicting very little if any
forcing to really help us overcome the stable dry air.
Confidence is pretty low for any measurable rain so low Pop`s
(25% or lower) generally over the entire CWA with the exception
of Laramie county that has 35% pops or less where the forcing
seemed a little bit stronger. This shortwave may also develop
some precipitation chances early Monday morning but those
chances deteriorate by the afternoon on Monday. Tuesday through
Thursday will have a ridge slowly push into the Intermountain
West and start advecting warm dry air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the duration of this TAF period
across all terminals, with winds being the primary threat. A
relatively calm night is on tap for all the sites with winds
generally 10 knots or less. However, winds will ramp back up between
15Z and 18Z Friday, with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range. By 00Z
Saturday, winds will be on a downward trend to less than 10 knots
once again. KRWL will be the only exception, as gusty winds will
impact the terminal through this forecast period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RZ