826
FXUS61 KCTP 311826
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
226 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Widespread showers and thunderstorm downpours expected for the
  last day of July
* Potentially significant flash flooding and a few severe
  t-storms are most likely across parts of southeastern PA
  through late this evening
* Late July heat wave breaks down with a refreshing pattern
  change to deliver comfortably cooler and less humid conditions
  to begin the month of August

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

* Significant (higher-end) flash flooding and a few severe
  t-storms capable of locally damaging winds are possible into
  early tonight with focus in southeast PA including the Lower
  Susquehanna Valley

Storms with heavy rain and some taller cores right where they
were forecast to be (SE). These are maintaining/back-building
even after the stabilization that has occurred in places where
it has rained. Inflow aloft is maintaining very high PWATs and
deep-layer effective shear of 45KT there is making the promise
of dual threat of FF and SVR come true. SPC collaborate a watch
for the SE, and LWX and CTP have just expanded the watch to the
east for the next few hours. While the shear is a bit lower and
stability a little higher, the presence of a severe cell in
Bedford already makes it more possible to get additional severe
cells in the south-central mtns.

Round two is already underway over the Laurels where more
significant forcing at the base of the long-wave trough is
advancing through the PBZ area. There are some tall/strong cells
there already in Bedford/Somerset and lots breaking out in the
previously clear and well-heated air of the south-central mtns.

Latest guidance (since earlier this morning) has most of the
storms waning/moving east by 01-02Z. There will likely be one or
two problem storms beyond that time. Can never rule out storms
lingering over Lancaster and York longer than we think they
will.

The rain up north for the rest of the day should be light, and
no flood problems are anticipated there. The cool, dry air will
take over late this evening and overnight. A northerly breeze
should preclude fog over the N, but all the moisture on the
ground and later arrival of the breeze/drying may lead to some
fog there. But, the extent of clearing may keep fog worries low
there (S). Will keep mentions out for now. Temps should be into
the U40s in Bradford by sunrise. The SE will not quite get to
the L60s due to clouds and even a lingering light shower. But,
every little bit helps after such a long, humid/hot stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers over the S will dissipate in the morning
as burly (for summer) 1028mb high pressure muscles it way into
the state. Expect clearing over much of the area in the morning with
high/mid clouds sticking over the S for much of the day. StratoCu
are possible in the N and Central zones as we mix near 8H
(5kft), but the inversion is strong and should keep them
short/thin. Max temps will be in the 70s everywhere, thanks to
more sun in the N and clouds in the south despite the N-S
gradient to the 8H temps.

Total clearing is likely for most of the CWA Fri night. Fog is
probable in the nrn valleys. Mins will be another 5-7F lower.
The N M40s (which will help make the fog) and SE 55-60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Will just copy and paste the previous discussion below as the
wisdom therein holds. Just a really nice, long stretch of wx.

Prev...
Slightly below average daytime highs 70-80F and lows 50-60F are
forecast along with no rainfall through the first weekend of
August. The dry spell and pleasant conditions/low humidity
should last through early next week with temperatures trending
warmer/back to seasonal averages for early August. Medium range
models and ensemble data show broad upper level troughing
carving out and shifting eastward across the Appalachians which
should translate into increasing rain chances by next Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist through the rest of
the day with IFR conditions likely at BFD. Scattered
thunderstorms will be most likely south of UNV while steady rain
is expected to the north. Any thunderstorms that move directly
over an airfield will produce very heavy downpours and gusty
winds.

There is some disagreement as to when rain will come to an end
tonight, but most guidance suggests that most of the TAF sites
with the exception of MDT and LNS will be mainly dry after 03Z.
MVFR ceilings will linger through the night and much of Friday
morning everywhere except BFD, where drier air working in should
allow for clearing skies. There should also be at least some fog
formation.

Outlook...

Fri...AM SHRA linger over SE PA, with restrictions possible;
trending drier with VFR conditions for the afternoon.

Sat-Mon...Dry with VFR conditions.

Tue...A few showers possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BFD tied the record high temperature of 88 yesterday 7/30.

#Top10 warmest June+July
#Top10 warmest July

From June 1st through July 30th:

Harrisburg:     76.8F average temperature ranks 7th warmest
Williamsport:   74.1F average temperatures ranks 7th warmest
Altoona:        73.1F average temperature ranks 3rd warmest
Bradford:       67.8F average temperature ranks 2nd warmest
State College:  73.1F average temperature ranks tied 4th warmest

From July 1st through July 30th:

Harrisburg:     79.9F average temperature ranks tied 7th warmest
Williamsport:   77.0F average temperature ranks tied 8th warmest
Altoona:        74.8F average temperature ranks 7th warmest
Bradford:       69.8F average temperature ranks 3rd warmest
State College:  75.8F average temperature ranks tied 6th warmest

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ028-036-037-041-042-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/NPB