241
FXUS61 KCTP 220427
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1127 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increasing potential for heavy snow and major winter storm
  impacts Saturday night through late Sunday night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lingering light snow and freezing drizzle will be followed by
a line of heavier snow showers across north central PA
overnight and into early Thursday morning.

2) Increasing odds for heavy snow and moderate to major winter
storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday. Winter Storm
Watches may be needed shortly.

3) Arctic blast with frigid temperatures and sub-zero to
dangerous wind chills expected from late week through the
weekend into the first part of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Lingering light snow and freezing drizzle will
be followed by periods of heavier snow showers across north
central PA overnight and into early Thursday morning.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM.
At 11 PM Wed, there was a very slow moving band of light snow
and some -FZDZ extending from Clearfield northeastward to Tioga
and Lycoming counties. Given the longevity of this band,
another inch of accum is possible through the next few hours.

At the same time a broken line of heavier snow showers was
moving into NW PA. This line led to snow squall warnings being
issued in NY state. The snow squall parameter remains elevated
in northwestern PA through 10 AM Thu. Expecting not only this
line, but also another vort max upstream arriving during the
morning commute (6AM-10AM) to produce heavy snow showers with
brief, localized reductions in vsby to less than 1/4 mile,
mostly in the advisory area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for heavy snow and major winter
storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday. Winter Storm
Watches may be needed shortly.

Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy
snow and major winter storm impacts across central PA this
weekend. As is often the case, the primary model uncertainty
differences center around the interaction between the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream which will ultimately
steer the storm track and associated placement of winter wx/max
snowfall. More than half of ensemble members have at least 6
inches of snow falling across northern tier, and an even higher
percentage - more than 80% - have at least 6 inches fall across
the southern tier. More than half of ensemble members show a
foot of snow or more south and east of I-80/I-99.

The arctic air would favor a dry, fluffy snowfall over the
weekend and be more prone to blowing/drifting impacts.

Can`t rule out some mixing with sleet at the peak of warm air
advection aloft, especially if the storm is more amplified like
the CMC/UKMET have suggested.

Please continue to check for the latest forecast as it evolves
and details become more clear. Now is the time to prepare. Think
snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during
the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember
it will be very cold during and after the storm. Never run a
generator indoors due to carbon monoxide.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Arctic blast with frigid temperatures and sub-
zero to dangerous wind chills expected from late week through
the weekend into the first part of next week

Initial shot of Arctic air will arrive on Friday and will be
reinforced behind the departing weekend storm into next week.
The frigid to much below normal temperatures are expected to
continue through the end of January.

Sub-zero to dangerous wind chills are most likely Friday night
into Saturday morning (preceding the winter storm) and again
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cold wx advisory or extreme
cold warnings may be needed.

Given the prolonged nature of the cold, we may begin to see
more infrastructure impacts (frozen pipes, for instance) by next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quick hitting snowfall over parts of the region earlier this
evening with biggest impacts felt at JST/AOO/UNV. Lighter
intensity snow still ongoing over northwest half of region
mixing with pockets of fz drizzle. Conditions MVFR from AOO-UNV
with lower IFR conditions further NW from JST-FIG-BFD and into W
PA. These restrictions should remain in place through the
overnight before gradual improvement on Thu. One caveat, a
snowband off Lake Erie may bring a brief heavier snow
shower/squall to the northern mountains including BFD prior to
12z.

Thursday brings passage of the cold front early, with another
day of gusty WNW winds. Morning starts out with LIFR/IFR
cigs/vis in SN north and west, with MVFR ceilings central and
VFR southeast.

Fri...Gusty W wind. Lake effect BFD (ocnl IFR). Mainly MVFR
elsewhere.

Sat...Dry most of the day, then SN begins to enter south-to-
north late spreading across region and intensifying overnight.
Widespread IFR likely Sat night.

Sun...Impactful snow storm continues with widespread IFR/MVFR
restrictions.

Mon...Storm lifts to the NE and cold northwest flow takes over,
bringing snow showers and continued restrictions to the NW, and
improving conditions to the SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-045.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen