094
FXUS61 KCTP 060657
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
257 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers and scattered thunderstorms could bring locally heavy
  rainfall on Friday, with a threat for localized flash
  flooding.
* Severe thunderstorms, producing damaging winds, will be
  possible across the southeastern half of Pennsylvania Friday
  afternoon and into the evening hours.
* Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
  additional rounds of showers and temperatures trending near
  to slightly below the seasonal average

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Current radar outlines continued showers across the Laurel
Highlands (mainly stationed across Somerset County) with
thunderstorm development all but finished for the evening as
instability has waned after sunset. Main concerns throughout the
overnight period will be hydro-related as a slow-moving cold
front continue gradually moving across the area. Main areas in
play for hydrologic concerns overnight will generally be in
Cambria and Somerset Counties where locally heavy rainfall has
already occurred earlier this afternoon/evening. The best
moisture and lift will gradually become more removed, which will
allow for shower development to begin to decay for a brief
period later this evening. In terms of sensible weather
overnight, also noted on recent RAP model soundings that ample
low-level moisture will remain in place, promoting patchy fog
formation across the higher elevations of central Pennsylvania
and in areas where locally heavy rain fell this evening.

Recent model guidance outlines weak surface low pressure
stationed in close proximity to central Pennsylvania Friday
morning, with ample moisture in place to promote shower chances
near daybreak on Friday across the northwestern half of the
forecast area. Recent forecast retains mentions of precipitation
across SE PA; however, trending towards drier conditions south
and east of the I-81 corridor until after 18Z/2pm EDT. Recent
forecast does outline this thinking, albeit could realistically
see some trimming of precipitation mentions. QPF amounts have
trended slightly upwards on Friday, and flooding is an
increasing concern for Friday afternoon/evening, especially
across SW PA and the northern tier where heavy rainfall occurred
on Thursday.

In terms of severe potential, low-level moisture in place
across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area with
enhanced lift along a surface boundary. Heating through peak
daytime heating hours will allow for destabilization with modest
shear in place during the afternoon/evening hours. Steep low-
level lapse rates, coupled with the aforementioned instability
parameters will outline a damaging wind potential, mainly
stationed in the 3pm to 8pm timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the aforementioned
cold front are expected into Saturday, mainly focused across the
Lower Susquehanna Valley and the southern tier of Pennsylvania
where the best moisture will remain available. Available
instability decreases considerably on Saturday with more
expansive cloud cover, and despite recent deterministic guidance
outlining more favorable shear, severe thunderstorm potential
as a whole remain much lower on Saturday compared to Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring additional
precipitation; however, given best chances for precipitation are
forecast to occur over areas that have not received the
heaviest rainfall over the past couple of days, flooding impacts
look less likely at this time.

Uncertainty with respect to Sunday has started to increase as
EC model guidance indicates precipitation across much of
Pennsylvania on Sunday (S AM/NW & E PM), while recent GFS
deterministic guidance outlines dry conditions for much of
central Pennsylvania before precipitation enters from the west
later in the evening. Given this increased uncertainty, have
resolved closer to NBM PoPs this cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After a possible short period of dry weather earlier in the day
on Sunday, the next period of dry weather will be later next
week. Temperatures close to normal next week.

Earlier discussion below.

Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated to scattered light rain showers will continue early
this morning primarily along and northwest of a line from
HMZ/UNV/N38. Strong IFR to VLIFR (at or below airfield minimum)
signal in both the aviation tuned GFSLAMP and hires guidance
being confirmed at KBFD with high confidence in persistence
through 12Z. Elsewhere, residual low level moisture and very
light/calm sfc winds will likely result in 3-6SM fog at the
remaining terminals; can`t rule out a drop to 1-3SM however the
bkn to ovc mid cloud deck favors MVFR floor. Another round of
showers and t-storms expected this afternoon/evening with
increasing coverage tied to the diurnal cycle. We have accounted
for this via prevailing VFR -shra and PROB30 MVFR TSRA and may
adjust to TEMPO or prevailing thunder as confidence increases at
shorter durations. Cold front moves to the south/east tonight
with model data picking up on post-frontal low clouds
particularly at high elevation terminals BFD and JST where
upslope flow will be a factor.

Outlook...

Sat...Showers/PM TSRA continue, mainly confined to the
southeastern third of central PA airspace. Drying out Saturday
night with patchy fog likely.

Sun...Next round of showers/t-storms spreads from SW to NE into
Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...Unsettled pattern continues with additional rounds of
showers and t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Martin/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl