607
FXUS64 KCRP 261051
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
551 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Heat Advisory today across the Coastal Plains/Victoria Crossroads

- Elevated fire risk leading a Fire Danger Statement across the
Brush Country

- 20-30% rain chances Thursday across northern Brush Country, with
lower confidence on Friday across the Victoria Crossroads

- In the absence of rain, the HeatRisk will be the dominant
  concern

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The dominant mid/upper-level high pressure continues to bring 100
degree high temperatures to much of South Texas (with 90s along the
coastal zones). Coupled with dewpoint temperatures still remaining
in the 70s in the afternoons east of a line from Cross to Benavides,
the HeatRisk is forecast to climb back to mostly Major (level 3 of
4) with heat indices climbing to as high as 114F. For this reason, a
Heat Advisory has been issued these zones from noon to 7 PM today.

This heat dome slides ever so slightly westward Thursday and Friday,
resulting in upper-level winds to come out of the northwest/north
allowing some disturbances to push into south-central Texas. While
the majority of CAMs have some form of composite reflectivity moving
through the northern Brush Country Thursday evening, any shower that
moves in from the I-10 corridor will be elevated in nature leading
to virga as any storms moves toward the Hwy 59 corridor. That said,
storms forming from the collision of the sea-breeze may be more
efficient at dropping a few more raindrops (more so for the Victoria
Crossroads as their PWATs are forecast to be between 2.0-2.2").

Friday`s rain chances (20-30% in the Victoria Crossroads and less so
further south along the Coastal Bend) are a bit lower in confidence
among the global models. In the absence any rain on Thursday and
Friday, higher dewpoints would increase the HeatRisk and would
warrant further consideration of any heat-related headlines. Moving
further into the forecast period, low end rain chances (<20%)
associated with the seabreeze return as the heat dome slides east
and weakens as it does so. Summer in Texas is still in full force.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Brief MVFR conditions across VCT and ALI this morning are expected
to lift to VFR around 14Z. These conditions are expected to
develop once again overnight, mainly after 08Z Thursday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist across S TX through the TAF
cycle. S-SE sustained winds will generally be around 15 knots or
less with occasional gusts to 20-25 knots this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breeze will continue through
the week, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the
late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Low-
end rain chances return north of Port Aransas Thursday/Friday, but
will be isolated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

ERC values continue to hover near the 90th across much of South
Texas (with the exception of the coastal plains). Humidity values
will continue to be low, with minimum RH values below 34% over the
Coastal Plains and as low as 20-25% across the Brush Country. While
winds will remain light in the morning, afternoon winds combined
with low humidity will increase the fire risk to elevated
conditions, leading to a Fire Danger Statement for the Brush Country
this afternoon. Low-end chances for precipitation (20-30%) return to
the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads Thursday night,
though chances for a wetting rain remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria         104  77 105  77 /   0   0  10  20
Laredo           106  79 106  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            103  75 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          93  81  93  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla          105  77 105  78 /   0   0   0  20
Kingsville       101  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  81  91  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81