827
FXUS64 KCRP 060549
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of
  South Texas through the weekend.

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather
pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong
subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit
any convective development. The arrival of a Saharan dust plume will
further inhibit rainfall potential while also reducing visibilities
today through the weekend.

This subsident air mass will also support the persistence of hot
conditions through early next week, with daily high temperatures
running 3-8 degrees above normal. Forecast 850 mb temperatures
between 20-25 degC are well above climatological averages,
resulting in afternoon highs consistently reaching the triple
digits across much of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country and the
90s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. South-
southeasterly surface flow will continue to draw low-level
moisture into the region, enhancing the risk for heat related
stress/illness. Heat index values will range from 110-117 across
much of the area, especially west of the I-37 corridor where the
likelihood of a Major to Extreme heat-related impacts is greatest.
As a result, future forecasts may require the issuance of Heat
Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings, specifically Saturday-
Monday.

Looking ahead to early next week, the aforementioned ridge is
expected to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to
move across the CWA. This pattern shift combined with increasing
atmospheric moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.2 inches), will lead to
an increase in rain chances (20-70%) from Tuesday-Friday, with
the highest chances focused over the Victoria Crossroads and
Coastal Plains. More limited activity is expected across the far
western portions of the Brush Country due to its closer proximity
to the lingering ridge. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall
will help moderate temperatures slightly, with daytime highs
expected to drop into the 90s areawide by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Have
included a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings at all terminals from 09Z-15Z.
Saharan dust arrives tomorrow leading to some hazy conditions, so
have also mentioned this in all TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze can be expected through next
week. A plume of Saharan dust moving into the region today will
result in hazy skies through this weekend. Rain chances will return
Monday night and increase through midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  80  94  79 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          94  77  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo           102  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          91  82  91  82 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla          103  78 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  78  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  82  89  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77