134
WTPA44 PHFO 301445
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Lowell is still showing signs of easterly shear, with the low-level
center just under the eastern edge of the convective overcast.
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have
changed little since the last advisory. Thus, the initial intensity
remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level
ridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued
generally westward motion. After that, there is considerable
cross-track spread in the guidance, likely due in part to the
potential influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell`s
steering flow. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the UKMET, and
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean continue to show a more westward
motion days 3-4, while the GFS, ECMWF, and the regional hurricane
models show a west-northwestward motion. The Canadian model is still
calling for an interaction with Karina that would cause Lowell to
become nearly stationary, but that solution looks unlikely at the
moment. The new forecast track lies a little to the north of the
HCCA forecast and a little to the north of the previous forecast.

For the past two days, the forecast has been for the shear to let up
and Lowell to start strengthening, but this has not yet happened.
The guidance, though, continues to forecast this, and while the
cirrus outflow is restricted to the east there is more of it than
there was yesterday. The new intensity forecast will follow the
guidance trend and show the system strengthening through 96 h, with
the forecast in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.  The
intensity near the end of the forecast period will depend on how
close Lowell and the larger Karina are, as the closer they are the
weaker Lowell is likely to be. For now, the forecast shows Lowell`s
intensity leveling off by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 13.3N 140.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 13.3N 142.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 13.3N 144.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 13.3N 146.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 13.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 13.7N 149.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 13.9N 151.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 14.5N 154.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 15.4N 157.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven