Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1
711
FOPA14 PHFO 301444
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  40(42)   1(43)   X(43)
15N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)
15N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  65(67)  10(77)
15N 155W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  35(36)  11(47)
15N 155W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   7(27)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  35(41)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
BUOY 51002     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)
15N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
15N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN