993
FXUS61 KCLE 312000
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Ohio River Valley will continue to move
southeast as high pressure builds across the area through
tonight. This high pressure will linger through the weekend and
into early next week before the pattern once again becomes
active.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front continues to move southeast away from the area this
afternoon as the axis of an upper level trough continues to push
across the area. This has allowed for continued support for
widespread rain showers this afternoon, which are expected to
persist into the evening. Additional rainfall through the
afternoon should primarily be light with up to a tenth of
additional rainfall possible with locally higher amounts. There
remains a non-zero chance of thunder embedded in these showers,
however given the very limited instability, even in the
elevated layers, not expecting anything sustained or widespread.
Temperatures today have been trending even cooler than
previously forecast with current observations placing most
places in the low to mid 60s. Some areas out west may just reach
70 degrees today, but not expecting it to be much warmer than
that. As high pressure become more dominant tonight, showers
should end from west to east and temperatures are expected to
fall into the low to mid 50s. The exception to this is across
portions of NW OH where a northeasterly flow is expected to
advect warmer temperatures inland with lows falling into the
upper 50s to low 60s.

High pressure will persist on Friday for a very pleasant day
with peaks of sunshine. Temperatures will be a bit below average
only climbing into the mid 70s, but overall conditions will feel
quite pleasant. Overnight lows will once again fall into the low
50s, again with the exception of NW OH where lows will linger in
the mid to upper 50s due to warm air advecting off the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A pleasant weekend is in store for the area as high pressure
prevails for Saturday and Sunday. Plenty of sunshine is expected
with highs on Saturday climbing into the upper 70s and highs on
Sunday into the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity values will also
remain low and the predominant flow across the area maintains a
northerly component. Overnight lows will continue to remain
below normal, falling into the 50s Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another shift in the pattern is expected next week as multiple
shortwave trough may impact the area along the leading edge of a
deeper, more dominant trough. This far out, models are not in
great agreement about the timing of these shortwaves but it
generally looks like the chances of showers and thunderstorms
return by Tuesday afternoon. Models suggest and upper level
shortwave moving a low pressure system north from the Gulf Coast
towards the Ohio River valley. This system will have more of a
tropical airmass, so heavy rainfall will be possible with any
showers that do develop Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Given the
overall lack of surface forcing, not expecting any organized
convection. Temperatures through the period should be in the 80s
with slightly more humid conditions expected as dewpoints linger
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Showers associated with a cold front continue across the area
this afternoon. The showers will diminish from west to east and
will generally be done by 00Z. There is a mix of IFR and MVFR
ceilings across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with a
few pockets of VFR mainly downwind of eastern Lake Erie.
Visibilities have been trending towards VFR but many areas of
MVFR remain and a few pockets of IFR in moderate showers.
Ceilings will tend to lift to MVFR by this evening, then clear
from north to south tonight as high pressure builds over the
Great Lakes, generally between 00-04Z. Some scattered to broken
lake effect clouds may redevelop overnight with northeast flow.

Northeast winds of 8-12 knots continue with a few gusts to 20
knots possible through 22Z. Winds tend to drop to 10 knots or
less tonight and then increase to slightly towards 16Z again.

Outlook...Non-VFR may persist Thursday evening and overnight in
lingering showers and/or lower ceilings. VFR is then expected
to arrive Friday and persist into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue tonight on Lake Erie
in the wake of a cold front. The onshore flow is resulting in high
waves of 3 to 8 feet. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards
remain in effect, but have been able to move up the ending time for
areas west of the Lake Erie Islands and for Ashtabula eastward into
Erie County PA. These areas now expire late tonight although a
moderate swim risk may persist into Friday morning. Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazards will be needed the longest across the
central basin of Lake Erie as the pressure gradient remains between
low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and high pressure over the
Central Great Lakes through Friday afternoon. In addition,
conditions become more favorable for waterspouts overnight and
through the first half of the day on Friday. These are most likely
across the Central basin of Lake Erie and towards the Lake Erie
Islands where convergence is best.

Beyond that, good marine conditions return on Lake Erie for the
weekend with high pressure building east across the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007-
     089.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for
     OHZ009>012.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143-148-
     149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10