538
FXUS61 KCLE 211746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1246 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is slowly increasing for widespread accumulating
snow on Sunday. Sub-zero wind chills will return on Friday and
persist into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A widespread snow is expected today with the highest totals found
across Northwest Pennsylvania. Temperatures will warm near or
above freezing by this afternoon and evening, followed by a cold
front and gusty winds later tonight.

2) A prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is expected
beginning this Friday and will likely extend into early next
week.

3) We are continuing to monitor potential impacts across our
area from a developing system across the southern CONUS this
weekend. Confidence is slowly increasing for widespread
accumulating snow on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A clipper system will bring a period of widespread snow from
west to east across the area today. Generally light totals of
0.5 to 2 inches are expected along and ahead of a warm front as
temperatures quickly warm into the low to mid-30s by this
afternoon. Higher storm total snow amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
expected across Northwest Pennsylvania into Thursday morning -
a majority of which should fall this afternoon and evening with
the warm front. Snow rates will generally range between 0.5 and
0.75 of an inch per hour, though brief 1 inch per hour rates
cannot be ruled out, especially early this afternoon.

Light snow and/or freezing drizzle is possible late this evening
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania behind the
warm front as mid- level moisture dries out. Snow should become
the predominate precipitation type once again by late overnight
into Thursday morning as mid-level moisture returns with a cold
front passage. Winds have been trending higher in recent model
runs behind the cold front tonight and will be something to
monitor in the next forecast package, especially across
Northwest Ohio and along the lakeshore where brief 40 to 45 mph
wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A brief relief to the cold will arrive today as a clipper
system moves east through the Great Lakes, lifting a warm front
across the area and ushering in temperatures near or even
slightly above freezing this afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead, a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is
expected towards the end of the week into early next week as a
strong cold front moves through the area on Friday. The coldest
temperatures are expected late Friday into Saturday, with
medium-high to high confidence (60 to 80%) for wind chills to
drop below -15 degrees F. Ambient surface temperatures will also
remain cold, with medium-high to high confidence (70 to 100%)
for daytime high temperatures to be at or below 16 degrees F,
especially on Friday and Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Finally, we are keeping an eye on a developing system across the
southern CONUS this weekend and its potential impacts to our
area. Confidence in a widespread accumulating snow continues to
increase, with medium confidence (40 to 50%) for at least 2
inches of snow, up from 10 to 20% in last night`s model cycle,
particularly east of the I-71 corridor. Probabilities remain low
to medium low (20 to 30%) for at least 4 inches of snow, though
the overall synoptic pattern suggests this upward trend may
continue with plenty of moisture and cold air in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Snow showers are currently impacting the far eastern terminals
of KYNG and KERI. visibilities have been dropping down to less
than a mile at times in the heavier snow bands with ceilings
around 1.5kft. These should clear out over the next couple of
hours as drier air moves into the region. Most terminals at this
point have become VFR with the drier air, though there is a low
level cloud deck moving up from the south that will bring in
MVFR ceilings across most terminals in the region. Ceilings will
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR through much of the TAF period.
Snow showers will be possible in the eastern half of the region
late this evening into early tomorrow morning and clear out
afterwards.

Winds across the region will be gusty for much of the TAF
period. There`s a possible lull in the gusts at terminals,
excluding KERI, tonight as a weak inversion may set up. By the
early morning, winds will be right back to gusting up around 25
knots out of the west through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with lake effect snow showers
in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through
Friday. Non-VFR possible late Saturday through early Monday in
widespread snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions will continue to be rough with strong
gusty winds through the end the week. Currently the western third of
Lake Erie is now mostly ice covered as well as the nearshore water
from Cleveland eastward to northwest Pennsylvania. Open water in the
central and eastern basin of Lake Erie still remain at this time.
Another low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes region
today into tonight with a cold frontal passage. Winds will increase
again this morning 15 to 25 knots from the southwest. Behind the
cold front tonight, winds will be westerly 20 to 30 knots. We may
have a short time period late tonight into Thursday morning with
winds approaching Gales over the central and eastern basin. Westerly
winds will continue 15 to 25 Thursday into Thursday night. Another
Arctic cold front will sweep across the Great Lakes late Thursday
night into early Friday morning with winds shifting northwesterly 15
to 25 knots through Friday night.  Waves heights will increase with
very rough conditions out over the open and ice free water of the
central and eastern basin today through Friday night. There is the
potential that water levels in the far western basin may drop again
near or below the critical mark for safe marine navigation due the
stronger southwest to westerly winds later today through Thursday.

A strong Arctic high pressure system will build over the Great Lakes
Friday through Saturday night. Winds will actually decrease to
around 10 knots under that high pressure early in the weekend. A
potential storm system and low pressure system will move into the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region late this weekend into early
next week with winds shifting northeasterly winds by Sunday 10 to 15
knots.

Ice formation and rapid growth is likely to continue or accelerate
with the upcoming very cold weather late this week through next
week. The nearshore ice is not fastened to the shoreline, so it is
possible that this ice in the central and eastern basins gets pushed
around slightly into open water areas in the offshore winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...23
MARINE...77