179
FXUS61 KCLE 031105
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
705 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for Central and Northwestern Ohio
for this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity continues for one more day across Central and
Northwestern Ohio with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s.

2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue today through early
Saturday morning with the potential of storms being severe today and
Friday.

3) Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Elevated heat risk will continue for one more day across Central and
Northwestern Ohio today before temperatures begin to moderate Friday
into the weekend. The ridge is slowly beginning to retreat to the
southwest as low pressure moves north of the Great Lakes to the
east. 850mb temperatures will still be around 20-22C for the western
half of the CWA resulting in surface temperatures to be in the low
90s. Dew points again will be elevated in the low to mid 70s that
will push heat indices to around 100F this afternoon into the early
evening. There`s some uncertainty with the eastern extent of the
elevated heat indices as precipitation is expected over the course
of the day today. Current guidance suggests that precipitation will
be scattered in Eastern Ohio through the morning and into the
afternoon that will help keep heat indices down overall to the east.
Whereas Western Ohio should be free of any scattered precipitation
so temperatures will have the chance to climb before precipitation
is expected in the early evening. By that time, more widespread
precipitation is expected to move in from the northwest that
will temper heat indices this evening. Based on this, a Heat Advisory
has been issued for Central and Western Ohio for this afternoon
into the evening. Overnight, temperatures will still be warm
with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, though will not rise as
much on Friday due to the rounds of precipitation expected
throughout the day. A cold front will move south across the
region late Friday into early Saturday and temperatures will
regulate back to around seasonal for the weekend and into early
next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
More rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe weather will
continue through today and Friday and, to a lesser extent,
Saturday morning. There will be isolated morning convection
across the eastern portion of the CWA that should exit to the
east with the shortwave. Another shortwave is expected to move
into the region this afternoon/evening bringing support for more
thunderstorms and severe weather potential. Instability will
still be elevated with MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk
shear of 30-35 knots. Lapse rates will also climb to around
7.0-7.5 C/km with daytime heating. This will promote downburst
potential across the region during the afternoon and evening for
any storms that start to develop. The better chance for showers
and thunderstorms will be in the later evening into the
overnight with the shortwave. Clusters of thunderstorms are
possible with this that will bring the threat for damaging wind
gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado is possible as well as
0-1km shear vectors increase ahead of the feature. SPC has
highlighted the entire area today in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out
of 5) for severe weather due to this. The shortwave should exit
to the southeast early Friday morning and a brief break is
expected ahead of the next shortwave.

This shortwave will enter the region from the northwest mid-morning
Friday moving to the southeast. The ridge will have retreat to the
southwest more by this time so the thunderstorm chances will have
moved along with it to be more focused on the central and western
portions of the CWA. There won`t be much recover in the atmosphere
between the previous shortwave and this one, so the severe weather
threat will be lower. That being said, there will still be plenty of
instability, especially in Central and Northwestern Ohio that will
help support any severe weather. There`s still some discrepancies
among the models for Friday in regards to timing and coverage, but
generally, coverage should be lower, limiting the overall severe
weather impacts. A cold front will be associated with this shortwave
as it pushes to the south through early Saturday. The front will be
slow to move out of the area, so lingering showers and thunderstorms
are possible into early Saturday morning.

In addition to the severe weather potential, there will be the
chance for heavy rain and flooding in places that see persistent
rainfall. With the elevated CAPE, PWATs will be around 1.50-2.00"
across the region that will give enough support for the flooding
potential. Generally, the time frame that looks to be the most
susceptible to flooding will be tonight into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure will begin to build across the region Saturday
afternoon and persist through early next week. Building south from
Canada, this will drop high temperatures to a more pleasant upper
70s to low 80s with lower humidity. Overnight lows will be down into
the upper 50s to low 60s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Morning convection will linger until about 14Z and then a period
of no activity through around 21Z today. Cumulus field develops
at that point and then utilize TEMPO groups for the next round
of showers/storms. Timing will be roughly 21Z Thursday through
01Z Friday, with storms characteristic primarily of gusts, which
is also included in the TEMPO. Low confidence after the storms
today but the chances for another round overnight are non-zero,
but will not mention in the TAF for now. Late tonight in the
eastern terminals, low end MVFR ceilings move in to the area.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in rounds of showers/storms through
early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary front will oscillate north and south along Lake Erie
through Friday before finally pushing southward and through the
region. Variable winds can be expected through this period with wave
heights around a foot during this time frame. Once the cold front
passes south of the lake, winds will increase out of the northeast
10-20kts into the weekend with central and western wave heights
building to 2-3ft through Sunday. Winds offshore once again after
Monday with wave heights back down to a foot or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for OHZ003-006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26