748
FXUS61 KCLE 261134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the sky cover and duration this morning into the early
afternoon hours due to persistent low stratus that will not be able
to mix out very easily.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure influences continue for today with northeasterly flow
off Lake Erie keeps the western lakeshore areas and inland on the
cool side.

2) A cold front comes through Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of it Monday night, and a prolonged cool down with a cutoff
upper level low pressure system for the end of the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low level moisture continues to be trapped under a stout subsidence
inversion this morning, and without the ability to reach
temperatures required to mix out the inversion, this should prove to
be very difficult to erode. This is likely to happen after 16Z
today, and possibly closer to 19Z. The 925mb northeasterly flow
continues to advect moisture in to the region underneath this
inversion and shows the source of that moisture drying up in the 18Z
time frame. Cool weather expected to persist today, especially
downwind of the northeasterly fetch off chilly Lake Erie that will
make 60F a difficult reach for the western half of the lakeshore
cities, and inland a couple counties in northwest Ohio. Away from
this chilly source region, late sun should be enough te get
temperatures into the upper 60s in the mid to late afternoon hours.
The forecast is dry through Monday, but surface winds turning
southerly brings back warmer conditions ahead of a cold front that
will bring renewed convection chances Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Mid/upper level ridge exits late Monday into Monday night, replaced
by southwest flow aloft. Low level winds will be on the increase as
this frontal system approaches, and instability should be on the
increase as well. Prefrontal surface trough Monday night likely to
be the first wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms, then
followed by another wave of showers and isolate thunderstorms
with the cold front itself Tuesday. Back into the 50s for
several days in the wake of the cold front from midweek into
next weekend as an upper level low pressure system drops into
the Great Lakes and becomes cut off east of the CWA. Low end
POPs in the cold pool convection setup. Possible frost/freeze
issues under this upper level low for the end of the week and
into the weekend.ason.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings are widespread across the area this morning with
pockets of LIFR ceilings along the lakeshore. Satellite
observations and forecast soundings indicate a deep layer of
moisture in the low levels, with mid- level subsidence aloft. As
a result, IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist until around 18Z before
scattering out.

Outlook...Periods of showers with non-VFR conditions are expected
Monday night through Thursday morning. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected Monday night through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to our north will track eastward today and exit
the region Monday. Waves of 1-3 feet are expected with
northeasterly winds around 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog is
expected over Lake Erie through late this morning as colder and
fairly moist air crosses the lake.

Monday night through Wednesday morning low pressure will track
northeastward from the Upper MS Valley to Hudson Bay. Winds will
shift from easterly/southeasterly at 15 to 25 knots to
southerly/southwesterly at 10 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet are
expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, then subside
gradually to 3 feet or less the rest of Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory may be required.

A trough will linger over Lake Erie Wednesday before high
pressure builds across the north-central United States
Wednesday night through Thursday. Westerly to northwesterly
winds 5 to 15 knots and waves 1-3 feet are expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...27
MARINE...27