942
FXUS61 KCAR 311911
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
311 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front is continuing to drift south over the
Gulf of Maine tonight. Surface high pressure builds in from the
west into Friday. High pressure moves overhead for Saturday then
drifts south of the area on Sunday. A slow moving cold front
crosses the area Sunday night and falls apart along the Downeast
coast by Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main front has moved southward and is now fairly stationary
along the southern portion of the state. This is continuing to
bring some very light showers to Downeast. As the front slowly
drifts southward, shower coverage will diminish and dry
conditions will prevail starting late tonight through Friday
night. Behind the front, the air mass is both cooler and drier.
Radiational cooling will drop overnight temperatures into the
50s across the south and as low as the mid-40s across Northern
Maine. Even with the cold temperatures, fog will be fairly
limited due to lack of moisture, except in locations with a
source, like along the river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A nice cool sunny start Saturday across the area with
temperatures in the low to mid 40s north. Low to mid 50s from
the Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth areas southward to the Downeast
coast. During the day a 1025mb surface high drifts east over the
Great Lakes and is in control of our weather with light W-NW
winds. Temperatures under mostly sunny skies top out in the low
to mid 70s north with mid to upper 70s for the downslope areas
of the Central Highlands to Downeast coast. A nice refreshing
day with dew points in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday the surface high will drift south of the area with return
W-SW flow developing and dew points climbing back into the
55-60F range. The airmass warms up back to widespread low 80s
across the area with 70s at the shoreline due to a seabreeze. It
will be breezy across the area with gusts 15-20mph possible.
500mb shortwave energy will be pivoting southward into the St.
Lawrence River Valley of Quebec ahead of a cold front. Expecting
afternoon showers to develop mainly confined to the North Woods,
St. John Valley and Northeast Aroostook County including Patten
to Houlton points northward. Modeled soundings from GFS and
ECMWF are suggesting 750-1000j/kg of MUCAPE with Canadian up to
1500j/kg of CAPE. Just into the range of the RRFS and that
showing 900-1250j/kg of CAPE. 0-6km Shear will be increasing
ahead of the shortwave to 30-40kt. Lastly, seeing K index 30-40
across this area of the north seems like thunderstorms will be
likely. Questionable thermal profiles combined with shear will
determine if stronger storms will be possible. For now will
continue to monitor trends.

Lastly, winds aloft will be still W-NW and a new surge of
wildfire smoke from Saskatchewan Canada wildfires will be
pushing into Quebec and Vermont back to the Great Lakes. It is
at the end of the RAP model right now but this will potentially
be moving into Maine by late day. Will continue to watch the
trends on this as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night will feature a cold front diving south through the
state into Monday but it is washing out over the area. Showers
and any remaining northern storms will end in the evening with
loss of daytime heating. The front is rather dry as it washes
out and not expecting much in the way of POPs overnight. Monday
the front will be cutting through the state with weak open 500mb
shortwave. Slight chance of a shower or storm but most locations
will be remaining dry. The airmass is drying but given the NW
flow will need to monitor the trends for that Saskatchewan
Canada wildfire smoke. Stuck with NBM blend for highs keeping
southern 1/2 of the CWA in the warmer airmass and highs in the
mid 80s with northern 1/2 of the CWA in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead to Tuesday generally expecting a dry day but will
need to watch a progressive 500mb trof zipping through the area
an may kick off a shower or storm but confidence is low right
now. Highs in the low 80s south and around 80F north.

Wednesday into Thursday feature much more uncertainty with a
large 500mb ridge trying to push into the area. The trend favors
mostly dry conditions with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s.
Will continue to track changes over time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for the next 24 hrs. Brief fog possible
overnight at PQI but other sites should remain fog-free. Light
northerly winds.

SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR. W-NW winds 5-10kt.

Sun...VFR. Brief MVFR/IFR possible north terms for afternoon
VCTS/-SHRA. W winds 10-20kt northern terms and W-SW winds
10-20kt southern terms.

Mon...VFR. VCSH/VCTS possible northern terms. Light and variable
winds.

Tue...VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA criteria
through Friday. Rain showers possible through Friday morning,
mainly offshore.



SHORT TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA criteria
through midweek. Seas generally 1-3ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...LF/Sinko
Marine...LF/Sinko