260
FXUS61 KCAR 060718
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
318 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled across the Gulf of Maine today. Low
pressure will approach tonight and track across the area
Saturday. High pressure will return on Sunday. An upper level
low will set up west of the area Monday through the middle of
next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front which brought some thunderstorms on Thursday has
stalled over the Gulf of Maine. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy day along the coast while the north turns out
sunny to partly cloudy. Later today, a rather poorly organized
low pressure system will approach. This is being supported by
two weak shortwaves in the flow; one sliding off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and one approaching Western New England.
Forecast models have been having a hard time determining which
shortwave will dominate and carry a low across. It currently
looks like there will be two weak lows, one developing off the
Mid-Atlantic region later today into tonight and another over
the Northern Appalachians. By later this afternoon into this
evening, a cluster of showers associated with the northern low
will begin to move across the southern part of our area along
the stalled front. Some surface convergence associated with the
remnant front combined with CAPEs up to 300 J/KG may support
some embedded thunderstorms, especially across the southwestern
part of our region.

Showers, predominantly supported by the northern low, will
expand across the area and spread north overnight tonight and
may reach northern areas by late tonight. However, most of the
shower activity will be across central and southern areas along
the old frontal boundary. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. Otherwise, tonight will be mostly cloudy and warm
with lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Humid air, especially
over southern areas, will result in some patchy fog with areas
of fog likely along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Waves of low pressure will ride a stalled out frontal boundary
on Saturday, while a more organized low pressure system tracks
south of Maine. This setup will favor showers and steady rain
for much of Saturday. Most guidance shows the highest rainfall
totals from Moosehead Lake and Katahdin southward. To the north,
lower amounts are expected.

Model soundings show enough CAPE that some embedded thunderstorms
are possible. PWATs are forecast to exceed 1.50 inches, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Given
the convective nature of this system, still some uncertainty
with the exact placement of heaviest rainfall. Regardless,
Saturday will see cooler high temperatures compared to recent
days. Most places will see highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
The immediate coast could stay in the 50s due to onshore flow.

Rain and rain showers begin to wind down Saturday evening,
ending entirely by late Saturday night. Some clearing is
likely late, especially in the North Woods. This will allow lows
to drop into the 40s there. Elsewhere, expect low to mid 50s.
High pressure brings a dry day Sunday, with highs in the lower
to mid 70s. Some more clouds Sunday night, with lows in the 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies on Monday. Still enough ridging to
provide a mostly dry day. However, cannot rule out a shower late
south of Katahdin. This is due to shortwaves rotating around an
upper-level low in the Great Lakes. The upper-level low is
forecast to lift northeastward into Quebec by midweek. Guidance
continues to show a surface low forming and bringing showers
later Tuesday into Wednesday. Leaned close to the NBM in the
long-term period due to timing uncertainties. Temperatures near
to a few degrees above normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Patchy fog may result in some MVFR or IFR conditions
at dawn today. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected
today into tonight. Fog may lower vsby again late tonight,
especially across southern sites. Winds very light, NE today
and SE tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...Mainly IFR or lower with rain, heavy at times GNR
southward. BCFG possible from GNR southward in the AM. TS
possible at all terminals in the PM. Winds light and variable.

Saturday Night...MVFR/IFR early with SHRA, improving to VFR
late. NW winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts, gusting 15-20 kts.

Sunday Night-Monday...Mainly VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts Sunday
night, becoming SE on Monday.

Monday night...VFR/MVFR early, then IFR or lower late with VCSH.
BCFG possible. S winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with SHRA. S winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight.
Humid air over the colder waters will result in some fog and
mist through tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Saturday and Saturday night. Fog could reduce visibility over
the waters Saturday. Wave heights could approach borderline SCA
levels (5 feet) Sunday and again Tuesday. Otherwise, sub-SCA
conditions through the middle of next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Bloomer/Clark
Marine...Bloomer/Clark