204
FXUS62 KCAE 060655
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
255 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather potential increases over the weekend as an
active weather pattern develops. Conditions are favorable for
several rounds of thunderstorms to push through the Southeast
to end the week and over the weekend. The active weather
pattern will likely persist through the long term with a high
chance to likely PoPs most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms over the far eastern
  Midlands this evening to diminish overnight.

Satellite imagery is showing some drier air pushing into the
forecast area this evening, which has helped push this
afternoon`s activity east of the forecast area. However, a
seabreeze boundary pushing into the far eastern Midlands has
sparked some additional activity mainly near the I-95 corridor.
Expect this activity to diminish as we begin to lose the daytime
heating. Overnight lows are expected to be mild again, with
temps near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe weather possible on Saturday and Sunday
- Damaging wind gusts along a line of storms is the main threat
- Timing of the storms would most likely be late afternoon

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal in the short term.
This will allow several rounds of shortwave troughs to move
across the Southeast with the main/strongest shortwave moving
through on Sunday. The timing of the shortwaves and how they
coincide with peak heating will be one of the largest
determining factors for severe weather potential over the next
few days. These disturbances should support convection across
the Ohio/TN River Valley earlier in the day and into the
afternoon as storms grow upscale into larger MCSs. There`s
indication that these MCSs could dig into central SC and the
CSRA bringing a threat of damaging winds late in the day.

Friday appears least favorable for severe weather due to the
timing of the shortwave and associated thunderstorms. The HREF
and CAMs generally show a line of storms approaching the FA in
the evening or overnight but weakening significantly as
instability wanes. Unless the timing changes to be significantly
earlier the chances for severe weather Friday appears low. On
Saturday and Sunday however, the timing of the shortwaves
appears to be more in line with peak heating. EFI CAPE values of
around 0.5 and median NBM CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg
indicate some potential for a strengthening line of storms as
MCSs work into the region from the west. Moderate 0-3 km shear
values of 15 to 20 km from speed shear but relatively weak deep
layer and 0-1 km shear values are supportive of a convective
line with damaging wind swaths being the main threat on Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Active weather pattern continues in the long term

Global ensembles favor troughing developing over the eastern US
in the long term as shortwave energy swings into the broader
trough. SW flow is likely to strengthen as the upper trough
amplifies allowing deep moisture advection into the forecast
area. IVT from the NAEFS approaches the 98th percentile for this
time of year showing the potential for strong moisture
advection ahead of a cold front, particularly on Tuesday.
Shortwave activity, strong moisture transport and convergence
ahead of a front all point to an active weather pattern with a
high chance to likely PoPs each day of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periodic restrictions through 12z especially at CAE/CUB then VFR
conditions expected throughout the remainder of the forecast.

Lingering low level moisture in the wake of the departing upper
trough has resulted in patchy stratus developing across the
northern Midlands and likely will impact CAE/CUB through 09z or
so. Possible stratus or fog at OGB/AGS/DNL but lower confidence.
Winds will be light and variable through sunrise then should
pick up from the west around 5 to 8 knots by 15z and continue
through the afternoon. Scattered convection may approach the
Midlands around 00z but should remain west of the terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the
area through much of the period, leading to potential early
morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day and daily
thunderstorms over the weekend may also bring restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$