Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
731 FXUS62 KCAE 091915 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 215 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Extensive flooding continues along the Edisto River between Orangeburg and Branchville. Strong high pressure New England will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia into Sunday. Moisture spreading north Sunday and weak cold air damming is expected to develop. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected Sunday with cooler temperatures. Another cold front will move into the area Sunday night into Monday with additional scattered showers. Drier and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves toward the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Cooler and drier today as high pressure fills in. High pressure to our north is sliding eastward, allowing strengthening northeast flow to develop down the lee side of the Appalachians. Much drier air surged into South Carolina earlier this morning, with dew points rapidly dropping 20 degrees or more, into the low 40`s. Weak cold advection will offset the clearing skies and keep temperatures fairly stable all with highs generally in the low 70`s. 850-500mb flow later this evening and overnight will turn out of the southwest as the ridge pivots east. This will drive some strong moisture advection and isentropic lift over top of the surface ridging, with PWAT`s climbing quickly and wedge conditions developing. The strongest moisture will remain southwest of our area through 12z Sunday, so rain chances remain low until later Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): -Cool with scattered showers possible Sunday and Monday. Moisture moves back into the region as wedge conditions are expected to develop. As a result, cool temperatures with periods of light rain are anticipated on Sunday. With the wedge conditions expected, did drop highs a few degrees for Sunday with highs ranging from the low 60s west to low 70s east. An approaching front Sunday night into Monday keeps chances of rain around through much of the day Monday. Rainfall amounts between Sunday and Monday are expected to be on the lighter side, around a half of an inch or less in general. Temperatures are expected to rebound some on Monday due to the front pushing out the wedge conditions as highs top out in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - A few showers possible with frontal passage at end of the week. - Temperatures more seasonable late in the week. Drier air moves back into the region for the long term forecast period as surface high builds over the area. Temperatures are forecast to fluctuate some as the week goes on as passing upper ridges and troughs move over the area. However, highs are anticipated to be around normal. A slight chance of showers returns for the end of the week as models indicates another front is forecast to approach the region. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through Saturday evening. Wedge conditions likely develop early Sunday with low cigs and vsby. Following the front earlier today, VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and gusty northeast winds up to 15-18 knots are expected the rest of the day. Winds will weaken later this evening. Moisture will quickly increase late tonight and into Sunday morning, and steadily lowering cigs are expected as wedge conditions develop. It does not appear to be a tremendously strong wedge, at least through the first half of Sunday, so currently forecasting MVFR cigs and only modest vsby reductions starting after ~08z in AGS and DNL, and 12z for OGB, CAE, and CUB. Rain chances remain low until later Sunday morning as additional moisture moves in and there is no mention in the TAF`s of precip for the time being. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture could lead to the potential for early morning restrictions early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... The North Fork of the Edisto at Orangeburg remains in moderate flood, but is forecast to recede into minor flood this afternoon and continue slowly receding from there. Water flowing south from the river into the South Fork is also producing extensive flooding especially near Branchville and areas downstream. The river at Branchville is anticipated to crest this afternoon before gradually receding. Slowly improving conditions are then expected over the next couple of days with any additional rainfall being minimal. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... HYDROLOGY...