823
FXUS65 KBYZ 292123 CCA
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Billings MT
223 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will persist
  through at least the first week of February.

- Occasional light snow tonight to Friday morning near the Dakotas
  border, with localized late night and early morning fog.

- A brief period of light freezing rain (30-50% chance) may impact
  Rosebud County eastward late Friday night to early Saturday.

- Wind gusts along western foothills may reach 50-60 mph Friday
  night through Saturday morning; 60% chance of 50+ mph gusts at
  Livingston and Nye.

- Mostly dry with periods of gusty winds along the western
  foothills through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through next Thursday...

Satellite imagery shows amplified NW flow over the region, w/ an
upstream wave moving thru southwest SK. We have seen periodic
light snow (w/ minimal accumulation) near the Dakotas border
today, and the energy to our north will keep scattered light snow
showers continuing in our far east tonight into early Friday. Any
additional snow accumulation should remain a half inch or less.
With the moisture and persistent light winds there is a low (20%)
risk of fog late tonight to early tomorrow from Forsyth to Miles
City, Baker and Ekalaka (i.e. east of surface trof). To the west,
drier downslope winds will continue.

Gusts along the western foothills should peak in the 35-45 mph
range tonight and Friday, but models have trended stronger with
wind potential Friday night into Saturday as the next Pacific wave
moves thru the area. Model consensus is for a IDA-LWT gradient
near 15mb, and up to 50 knots of flattened 700mb flow. Local
guidance shows a 50-60% chance of 50+ mph gusts at the gap
locations, and conceptually the gradient/mid level winds support
near advisory level gusts. Into Saturday when the surface trof
shifts to the east, mixed/gusty west winds could gust near 50 mph
along the US-191 corridor.

The Friday night wave looks to provide enough ascent for a brief
period of light precip, mainly in our east away from downslope
influences. The stronger downsloping off the Rockies will result
in an eastward push of warmer air, and thus there is a risk of
light freezing rain east of the surface trof late Friday night to
early Saturday...roughly 06-15z east of Rosebud County. Confidence
is high that surface temps in this area will be below freezing
when precip arrives, so this is looking like a west to east
progression of light snow to light freezing rain to light rain.
Anyone traveling I-94 east of Forsyth or US-12 from Miles City to
Baker early Saturday morning should be prepared for potential icy
conditions (30-50% chance of -FZRA). The travel impacts should be
short-lived as a shift to west winds will push temps quickly to
the upper 30s and 40s by 18z.

High temps will range from the mid 20s east to near 50F west
tomorrow, then 40s & 50s this weekend, which will be dry once the
early Saturday precip exits. Well above normal temps continue into
Monday.

A couple of weak shortwaves and shift back to NW flow may bring
some light rain/snow showers Monday & Tuesday. The first part of
next week will likely be a bit cooler than the weekend (but still
much warmer than normal). Ensembles show confidence for an even
stronger ridge over the western CONUS for the 2nd half of next
week. This could push temps to the upper 50s and lower 60s next
Thursday/Friday, though there is also a risk of backdoor cooling
if the ridge axis stays a bit to our west. In any event it is
looking dry and quite warm for the end of next week.

As alluded to yesterday, any chance at seeing colder Canadian air
will hold off til after Feb 9, that is maybe the week after next,
if the height anomaly shifts to the north Pacific as ensembles
suggest. Plenty of uncertainty at this time.

JKL

.AVIATION...

Chances (20-30%) for snow will linger near the Dakotas border
through 12Z Friday. Custer, Powder River, Carter, and Fallon
Counties will be dealing with low cloud ceilings through around
21Z Friday. MVFR conditions are likely 60-90% with lower chances
(30%) for IFR conditions. This includes KMLS, and KBHK. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/049 039/058 032/058 035/055 031/051 030/053 034/061
    01/B    10/N    00/B    01/B    11/B    10/B    00/B
LVM 031/046 037/053 033/057 033/048 028/046 029/051 032/057
    01/B    10/N    00/B    01/B    00/B    10/B    00/U
HDN 030/051 034/058 026/056 030/056 029/050 026/053 031/061
    11/B    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    00/U
MLS 018/035 025/051 026/045 027/050 028/043 023/046 029/056
    11/E    42/W    00/B    01/B    11/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 024/039 026/051 027/049 029/052 029/044 024/047 030/057
    12/J    32/W    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    00/U
BHK 012/024 013/043 024/039 021/043 023/038 019/039 023/048
    42/J    45/W    00/E    01/E    21/B    11/B    00/B
SHR 026/046 028/054 026/055 028/052 024/045 024/049 027/060
    10/B    10/N    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings