520
FXUS65 KBYZ 092059
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
159 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly warmer and dry conditions for most areas through the
  weekend.

- Weak disturbance brings rain/snow showers to the southern
  mountains and foothills Sunday.

- Periods of increased winds over the western foothills tonight
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday night...

Brief ridging continues over the region today, keeping conditions
mild and dry. An upper level low over Nebraska is bringing
precipitation right along the southeast MT border. Southeast parts
of Carter county have a small chance of precip through this
afternoon. Early morning Sunday, a weak pressure gradient sets up
for a gap wind pattern at Livingston. Models have trended downward
and the chances for hitting 50 mph is about 20%. Late Sunday
morning, a weak disturbance will pass through the region, with
the best chance for precipitation being snowfall for the
Beartooth/Absaroka mountains (less than 2 inches likely). Lower
elevations have a 10% chance or less at seeing any precipitation.

High temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s today, slightly
cooling to the 50s Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the upper
20s to 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. TS


Monday through Saturday...

Warm and dry conditions are in the forecast for Monday. During
this time, winds look to increase along the western foothills
around Livingston, Nye, and Big Timber with gusts in the 30-45 mph
range. As we get into Monday night, gap winds look to increase
around Livingston to Nye ahead of a Pacific cold front passage.
With this, the chance of seeing a 50 mph or greater gap wind gust
remains around 60 percent. Once the front moves through Monday
night into Tuesday morning, the gap wind threat will come to an
end. Across the rest of the region, westerly winds will increase
behind the front Tuesday with 20 to 40 mph wind gusts common over
the plains of southeastern Montana. From Big Timber to Harlowton,
winds may be a little stronger Tuesday with gusts to 50 mph
possible (50-60 percent chance).

Outside of winds, the chance of precipitation increases in the
west Monday night as the next weather system approaches. At this
time, the best chance of precipitation across the area comes
Tuesday morning when there is a 20 to 90 percent chance of
precipitation, highest over the mountains and lowest near Miles
City and Baker. The chance of precipitation decreases Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday morning as upper level ridging builds
back in. With this system, the wave looks to remain open with
little cold air. Therefore, precipitation amounts look to remain
relatively light. Over the lower elevations, there is a high
chance precipitation amounts remain below 0.20 inches. In the
mountains, a couple inches of snow is likely, but the chance of
seeing 6 or more inches of snow drops quickly outside of the
highest peaks of the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains (60 percent
chance).

Upper level ridging will bring warmer and dry conditions back to
the forecast for most Wednesday into Friday. The low amplitude
nature of the ridge may allow light snow showers to persist over
the western mountains during this time though (15-30 percent
chance). Another weather system is possible by next weekend, but
uncertainty remains. Arends/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds over the western foothills (KLVM) will be breezy (25-40
mph)through the morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/056 032/060 040/051 031/054 037/059 031/050 029/040
    01/E    10/B    14/W    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
LVM 033/053 032/060 032/046 027/050 034/053 028/047 025/040
    02/W    10/N    36/W    11/N    21/N    23/W    43/J
HDN 030/058 030/061 036/051 028/055 031/060 028/052 027/042
    01/B    10/B    16/W    10/U    00/B    12/W    33/W
MLS 030/058 030/058 034/053 030/055 031/059 029/052 028/042
    00/B    00/B    03/W    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W
4BQ 031/058 032/059 036/052 031/054 033/060 030/053 030/043
    00/U    00/U    05/W    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W
BHK 028/057 025/050 031/053 027/052 029/059 028/053 026/045
    00/U    00/N    02/W    10/U    00/U    00/B    22/W
SHR 030/059 027/062 033/052 024/054 029/061 027/052 025/042
    00/B    10/U    07/W    20/U    00/B    01/B    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings