385
FXUS61 KBUF 091902
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure sliding by to our south will provide mainly fair dry
weather across the region this evening. Weak low pressure will then
spread mixed precipitation across the region for the upcoming night
that will change to just rain for Thursday. Unsettled rainy weather
will persist for Thursday night into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to high level clouds will expand across the region, especially
across western NY this evening. Mostly clear and calm conditions
will likely result in temperatures rapidly dropping east of Lake
Ontario. Lows will be reached this evening with some locations
dropping to the teens across the northern Tug Hill region.

A longwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region through the
end of the work week. The first of many embedded shortwave troughs
will move into the Ohio Valley tonight. While most of the night will
be dry for most locations, a surge of moisture and isentropic lift
ahead of the trough will move into southwest NY by daybreak. Thermal
profiles suggest rain across the lower elevations and snow across
the higher elevations through daybreak Thursday. Rain will expand
northward and with temperatures climbing, any snow will changeover to
rain Thursday. A surface low will nose into western NY Thursday
afternoon and drier air will cause steady rain to change to showers,
mainly south of I-90. The best isentropic lift will lift north of
western NY by Thursday evening. Steady rain may continue east of
Lake Ontario, while scattered rain showers persist across western NY
overnight. As temperatures drop Thursday night, rain may changeover
to snow on the Tug Hill and result in an inch of wet snow.

Overall, rainfall amounts will average 0.25-0.50" with lesser
amounts across the Upper Black River valley from late tonight
through Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Several shortwave troughs will develop a closed low in the base of a
longwave trough this period, with this closed low wobbling to the
Atlantic coastline, and lingering there through this time period.

Initial shortwave in this trough will bring scattered showers to our
region Friday before its associated moisture lifts northeastward
into Canada. The second shortwave will gather Atlantic moisture,
returning rain showers to our region Friday night through Saturday.
As the moisture thins within this closed low aloft, Sunday could end
up dry with air temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level ridge axis will start this period, with a day of
warmth (temperatures into the 60s) before a cold front associated
with the next storm system arrives Monday night. Rain showers will
be remaining near our region Tuesday through Wednesday with the
closed low advancing slowly as it rotates across southern Canada.

Instability will build ahead of this front, with thunderstorms
likely forming to our west over the southern Ontario peninsula
Monday afternoon, but overnight arrival of convection and
diminishing instability may dissipate these storms as they reach our
western border, and thus will not place any thunder chances into the
forecast for now.

Cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday under the cool upper
level low, and with a wealth of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue across the region today. The last of
lake effect snow showers is east of Lake Ontario but should not
reach KART today.

Mid to high level clouds will increase from the west tonight. VFR
conditions will continue through the first half of the night. A mix
of rain and snow will enter the Southern Tier late tonight. Rain is
expected at lower elevations while snow will be likely across the
higher terrain including KJHW. MVFR conditions will move into the
western Southern Tier late tonight becoming IFR through daybreak
Thursday. The mix of rain and snow will will spread northward and
change to all rain Thursday morning. IFR conditions will persist
across the higher terrain while, MVFR is expected across the lake
plains. VFR and mostly dry weather will continue at KART tonight
through Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain, with rain
becoming more intermittent Friday and Saturday. The rain may be
briefly mixed with snow or sleet across WNY Thursday morning.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will approach from the mid western
states tonight. The corresponding gentle to moderate breezes will
back to the southeast...while the greatest wave action will
eventually be directed into Canadian waters.

Moderate easterlies will be found over the region on Thursday...as
the aforementioned sfc low will ease across western New York. While
the most significant wave action will remain in Canadian waters...
choppy conditions will be found west of Thirty Mile point on Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/RSH