718
FXUS61 KBUF 020616
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upped PoPs a little more where scattered showers are expected today,
and bumped up winds/gusts both Sunday and Monday.

Frost Advisory issued for much of the forecast area tonight. Freeze
Warning also issued for Chautauqua county tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Somewhat unsettled weather will continue through early this
evening.

2) Chilly temperatures will support areas of frost or a freeze early
this morning, followed by a potential for additional frost or freeze
headlines tonight.

3) Turning milder Sunday and Monday, with breezy to windy conditions
both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Somewhat unsettled weather will continue through
early this evening.

Today and tonight a pronounced upper level trough will remain in
place across the Great Lakes and Northeast...with the main axis of
the trough sliding across our area between later this afternoon and
tonight. The combination of diurnal heating of the associated cool
airmass (850 mb temps of -3C to -5C) along with forcing from the
trough axis/embedded shortwave energy will lead to the development
of some additional widely scattered to scattered showers today...
with some graupel possible within any of the showers. The best
chances for showers appear to lie across portions of the North
Country/Saint Lawrence Valley and across far WNY in the vicinity of
the weak low level convergence zones forming around the edges of
expanding lake shadows...with the showers then fading away following
sunset and the loss of heating this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly temperatures will support areas of frost or a
freeze early this morning, followed by a potential for additional
frost or freeze headlines tonight.

So far lingering cloud cover and a modest breeze has kept area
temperatures mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s as of this
writing...with a few spots across the interior of the Southern Tier
seeing some lower 30s where skies have cleared. A general west-east
thinning of cloud cover (save for portions of WNY where additional
upstream cloud cover looks to spread east overnight) and some
weakening of the winds will probably still allow for some areas of
frost/limited freezing conditions to develop through early this
morning...though the extent of these will probably not be quite as
great as previously thought. Have maintained the existing Frost
Advisory/Chautauqua county Freeze Warning to cover this potential.

The above said...the coldest night of this cool spell still looks to
be the upcoming night...when surface-based ridging and drier air
will build across the area and should allow for better conditions
for nocturnal cooling...resulting in lows potentially falling into
the lower 30s in many areas...and to the upper 20s across the higher
terrain. This being said...there is still some question as to how
much lingering cloud cover we`ll see with some guidance suggesting
the potential for at least some partial cloud cover to hang around
into the overnight hours...with it also possible that there may be
just enough of a weak westerly flow to at least partially inhibit
frost formation in some areas. Given all this...will hold off on any
additional frost/freeze headlines at this time...and will instead
leave the final call on those to the day shift.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning milder Sunday and Monday, with breezy to
windy conditions both days.

Sunday and Monday the core of the upper level trough will retrograde
northwestward across Hudson Bay and thence into Manitoba/western
Ontario Province...with a new surface low correspondingly developing
across the Upper Great Lakes/central Ontario by Monday in response
to the reloading upper trough across central Canada. All this will
result in the large-scale flow temporarily turning more zonal across
the Great Lakes and Northeast...with the low-level flow backing to
southwesterly. This will allow for an influx of progressively milder
air into our region for the second half of the weekend and the start
of the new work week...with daytime highs bouncing back into the mid-
upper 50s in many areas Sunday and to the mid-upper 60s Monday...
with a passing weak warm front possibly bringing a few showers
Sunday night/Monday. The strengthening southwesterly flow will also
result in breezy to windy conditions both days...particularly across
far WNY as a couple of low level jet segments pass across or just to
the north of the area. At this point at least some 30-35 mph gusts
look to be a decent bet across that portion of the area both days...
with somewhat stronger gusts not out of the question depending upon
the exact strength/path and timing of the LLJ segments. Have
accordingly bumped up winds/gusts both days...as current blended
guidance looks to be far too weak with these.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR expected at all terminals overnight as extensive cloud
shield breaks with some partial clearing.

SCT-BKN040-060 developing Saturday with widely scattered diurnally
driven showers developing during the afternoon. West to northwest
winds around knots developing by mid day with localized gusts of 15-
20 knots possible.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm.

Monday night through Wednesday...Showers with areas of MVFR becoming
more likely...with a couple isolated thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A general westerly flow of 10-15 knots (strongest on Lake Ontario)
will be in place across the Lower Great Lakes today. This may lead
to some locally choppy conditions across eastern Lake Ontario for a
time...with conditions otherwise remaining below SCA criteria. High
pressure will then crest across the region tonight...bringing a
period of somewhat weaker winds tonight into Sunday morning.

As the high slides off to our east Sunday/Sunday night...winds will
back to southwesterly and notably freshen on its backside...with a
moderately brisk southwesterly flow then persisting into early next
week. This will result in choppier conditions across the Lower Great
Lakes...with SCA conditions possible at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Our very wet spring continued through the month of April...with both
Buffalo and Watertown posting Aprils that were among the top 10
wettest on record. The monthly precipitation totals for our three
climate sites were as follows:

Buffalo - 5.58" (6th wettest on record)
Rochester - 4.08" (tied for 14th wettest on record)
Watertown - 5.16" (5th wettest on record)

Coupled with the extremely wet March...the above resulted in
combined March-April precipitation totals that were either the
wettest or 2nd wettest on record. For our three climate sites, these
were as follows:

Buffalo - 11.91" (wettest on record - previous wettest 11.80"/1991)
Rochester - 9.97" (2nd wettest on record, behind only 11.73"/1873)
Watertown - 9.79" (wettest on record - previous wettest 8.43"/2011)

Note that periods of record go back to January 1871 for Buffalo and
Rochester, and May 1949 for Watertown.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-085.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ019.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...JJR