973
FXUS61 KBTV 300625
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes made with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Cloudy with showers today, and then dry much of Monday.

2. Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night into Tuesday.

3. A period of showery weather is expected mid to late week,
with a emphasis on Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper trough is diving southwards across Quebec
Province, but the attendant surface low is far northeast of our
area. A stretched out frontal boundary will sag southwards while a
tongue of Pacific moisture rounds an upper ridge axis across the
central US as we approach dawn. Southwest to west flow against the
frontal boundary will produce intervals of showers, one along the
international border this morning, and then more widespread activity
this afternoon and evening. Convection this afternoon will likely be
short. There`s about 500 J/kg of CAPE, but the equilibrium levels
will barely make it above -20 C. It will be tough to generate much
cloud ice. So thunderstorms should be fairly scarce.

Precipitation will decline with sunset as the front pushes south and
daytime heating ends. High pressure will begin to nose in with
somewhat cooler air behind the front. A seasonable night of mid 40s
to mid 50s is expected with dry, pleasant conditions much of Monday.
Towards the end of Monday, precipitation will approach from the
southwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper troughing will continue to dominate far eastern
Canada, and this northwest flow will continue to prevent a surge of
warm air from reaching this area. A sluggish warm front will slowly
shift northeast while mid-level moisture moves northwest to
southeast over the hump of a 500mb ridge axis extending into James
Bay. So we`ll observe precipitation grazing the region Monday night,
with the highest rain chances across southern St. Lawrence County,
and then these rain chances slowly eke northeast Tuesday morning
into the afternoon. There remains some uncertainty with the
placement of precipitation. The mid-level moisture could be the
remnants of convection in the Great Lakes region, and where exactly
the quasi-stationary front is located will play a large role in
deciding the focus of heavier rain. Guidance is slightly farther
northeast this evening, but not by much. Most atmospheric
instability will be aloft Tuesday. Near surface conditions will be
mostly stable, and so any storm activity will be garden variety.

KEY MESSAGE 3: During the middle and end of the week, an upper level
trough will gradually shunt a ridge over the Midwest and Mid-
Atlantic to the south, preventing any heat from building into the
region. The last of a couple ridge runner type features will move
through Wednesday night into Thursday, likely bringing an area of
heavy rain with convective enhancement from elevated instability.
The warm sector will not be fully established over the area so
limited surface instability should limit the threat for severe
weather. However, increasing PWATs and good dynamics will cause an
axis of heavy rain to develop, though its exact placement is still
uncertain. The flood threat looks low at this point but will
continue to be watched. For any flash flooding to occur, the band on
Wednesday night into Thursday would likely have to occur in the
exact location as the heavier bands in the beginning of the week for
a chance. NBM probabilities of 2+ inches of rain are up to around 20
percent for southern Vermont, the part of the region that has the
highest probability of seeing the heaviest rain. GEFS 25th-75th
percentiles range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch at
this time, which does neglect localized higher amounts due to
convection. However, trends still continue to prog the best moisture
and forcing to our southwest. Brief high pressure will nudge in form
the northwest late Thursday into Friday with seasonable conditions.
Trends have begun to take more of a wet turn from previous forecasts
for next weekend, with our Wed/Thu system occluding off the Canadian
Maritimes, keeping cyclonic flow over and shower chances over our
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through almost the
entire next 24 hours. The exception will be tomorrow morning when
some scattered showers should move through MSS, potentially dropping
the visibility to MVFR for a brief period of time. However, thunder
is not expected. Southerly winds will prevail this evening,
generally between 5-10 KT. Winds become more westerly tonight
and could gust up to 20 KT at MSS. LLWS will develop at most
terminals this evening and will continue for most of the night,
but it should end by 14Z. Isolated to scattered showers with a
couple embedded thunderstorms will move through tomorrow
afternoon along the international border, which could cause
brief visibility reductions to MVFR/IFR and erratic winds.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig