192
FXUS61 KBTV 311927
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
327 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall will taper off across southern Vermont this evening with an
extended period of dry weather expected through at least the
middle of next week. Seasonably cool temperatures will be seen
on Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s. Temperatures will
moderate for the second half of the weekend and next week with
highs in the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 154 PM EDT Thursday...A quasi-stationary cold front remains
situated across the southern Mid-Atlantic with overrunning
precipitation impacting southern Vermont. Over the next few hours,
the front will sag further south which will help precipitation begin
to taper off across our region. So far, we have seen rainfall totals
of a third to half of an inch across portions of Rutland and Windsor
Counties with rainfall amounts up to an inch across far southern
Vermont. We could see an additional tenth to quarter of an inch of
rain in our forecast area before rain exits late this
afternoon/early this evening. Thereafter, clearing skies will
quickly overspread the region with mostly sunny skies expected by
daybreak on Friday. Sensible weather for Friday will be quiet as
high pressure builds overhead with seasonably cool high temperatures
in the low to mid 70s. Friday night looks to be a slam dunk for fog
across the region, especially across the river valleys and southern
Vermont where the highest rainfall totals have been observed today.
In addition, we could see some places in the Adirondacks dip briefly
into the upper 30s given the light winds and optimal radiational
cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 154 PM EDT Thursday...Weak warm advection will be ongoing on
Saturday which will help to moderate temperatures a few degrees
compared to Saturday. Highs will be more so in the mid to upper 70s
with light winds continuing with high pressure overhead. Another
good night of radiational cooling looks likely Saturday night but
noticeably warmer overnight low temperatures are expected. Fog may
be limited in coverage given we will be an additional day removed
from rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 154 PM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure will continue to
build eastward into the region as we head into next week. A warming
trend can be expected for Sunday into next week as high pressure and
a drier airmass remain situated over the region, with highs climbing
into the 80s areawide, although it will be relatively dry making it
feel a bit more comfortable. The extended period of dry weather
combined with low relative humidities could lead to increased fire
weather concerns into early next week, especially in locations where
dry soils and some fire activity already exist. The next chances of
precipitation looks to arrive by mid week, although there is still
plenty of uncertainty as to the exact evolution of the upper level
trough and arrival time of any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are currently expected to
prevail across all terminals throughout the forecast period.
Most terminals are currently dry, but rain will continue at
KRUT for the next few hours. While some brief reductions in
visibilities and/or ceilings may be possible within this
rainfall, VFR should continue to prevail. Most precipitation is
expected to taper off towards 00Z, with dry conditions
thereafter. Winds will generally be light and northerly
throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer