505
FXUS64 KBRO 071712
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- High Heat Indices (between 108 to 111) are expected for all of
  Deep South Texas (excepting the islands) this afternoon.

- Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will
  continue through early next week.

- There is a low (10-30%) chance of sea breeze showers and
  thunderstorms E of I-69C each afternoon this week through
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper-level ridging will continue throughout the Southern Plains
through early next week, which will continue keeping conditions
unseasonably hot and mostly rain-free throughout Deep South Texas.
Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected
to persist through the weekend into next week. A Special Weather
Statement is in effect this afternoon for anticipated heat indices
between 108-111 degrees for all of Deep South Texas, excepting
the islands. More Special Weather Statements and possibly Heat
Advisories are possible this week as temperatures and heat indices
remain high.

An influx of surface Gulf moisture will fuel low (10-30%) daily
chances for sea breeze convection each afternoon, primarily for
areas east of I-69C.  These chances are expected to continue through
Wednesday, and then conditions should briefly dry up through the
first half of the weekend. Low chances for sea breeze convection
resume again on Sunday and continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions with few clouds are expected at all airports. Light
to moderate southeasterly winds are expected with the potential
for a few gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Favorable conditions are expected over the next several days with
light to moderate southeasterly winds and low (1-3 feet) wave
heights.  Winds are expected to increase this weekend due to a
slightly tightening pressure gradient, and SCEC conditions may
become possible on the Laguna Madre in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  98  80  97 /  10  10   0  40
HARLINGEN               77 101  77 100 /   0  20   0  40
MCALLEN                 81 103  81 102 /   0  20   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 103  79 103 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  90  82  89 /  10  10  10  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  96  79  95 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM