Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
120 FXUS64 KBMX 060544 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 A weak disturbance located over Mississippi is helping promote scattered showers across parts of Central Alabama. Shower activity will continue off and on throughout the day, moving generally north to northwest. Greatest chances to see showers will be across western and southern counties. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. The disturbance off to the west will move northward toward Tennessee/Arkansas as a cold front will begin working eastward. The cold front will overtake the disturbance and sweep eastward, bringing higher rain chances across the northern and central counties by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Rain amounts still look to be limited, however. Although isolated totals may be higher, rainfall will be less than a half inch for most places. Areas south of I-20 and east of I-65 may not see much rain at all. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 By Wednesday, the weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20- 30% rain chances. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s across central and southern areas. A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Higher terrain areas of east-central Alabama may be in the low 70s both days. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday, as a weak upper low slides through the area. Light rain and cloud cover are likely to reinforce cooler temperatures across eastern areas late week. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 MVFR cigs will continue overnight and likely through the morning and midday hours. Some sites may fall to IFR, especially AUO, which has been straddling IFR and MVFR. Occasional light rainfall will continue overnight and tomorrow. Have included periods of VCSH at all terminals and PROB30 for -SHRA at TCL and MGM. Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for EET due to a comms outage. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances are in the forecast today through Wednesday, especially in northern and western counties. However, as coverage is expected to be isolated, no widespread wetting rainfall is expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through Wednesday. Winds today will be generally easterly to southeasterly up to 12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 66 83 66 / 20 10 30 50 Anniston 81 67 82 68 / 20 10 20 30 Birmingham 82 69 84 68 / 30 20 30 40 Tuscaloosa 83 70 86 68 / 40 20 30 30 Calera 83 68 85 68 / 30 20 20 30 Auburn 82 66 83 68 / 20 10 10 10 Montgomery 85 68 86 69 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 83 66 84 68 / 30 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12