075
FXUS64 KBMX 181049
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
549 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 549 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026

- Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances
  expected over the weekend.

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk through the weekend,
  transitioning to a major heat risk early next week with heat
  indices potentially reaching 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged across the region,
with a moist air mass residing over the Southeast. The axis of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to shift toward the south
and east, resulting in higher precipitation probabilities in
those areas. Isolated convection remains possible across western
sections as well, though coverage will likely be minimal. This
evolution is in response to the main ridge slowly shifting
eastward, maintaining our area on its eastern periphery.

In the Northeastern Gulf, a tropical disturbance will slowly
meander, possessing a 10-30% chance of tropical development over
the next several days. Currently, the system lacks significant
organization or a concentrated low-level circulation. This,
combined with model guidance that remains split between two
primary scenarios, contributes to continued forecast uncertainty
through the weekend and early next week.

The first scenario suggests that an eastward-moving trough will
interact with the disturbance, steering it northeastward through
Florida and Georgia. This would facilitate an influx of tropical
moisture into Central Alabama, leading to increased rain chances
on Sunday. This outcome typically occurs when a disturbance is
sufficiently developed to be influenced by the mid-latitude flow.
Should this pattern develop, the disturbance would track well to
the east while the main ridge remains positioned just to the
west.

The second scenario involves the system remaining in the Gulf for
several days, effectively trapped by the ridge and drifting
slowly westward. This would limit the inland moisture transport;
however, isolated to scattered showers would remain possible
daily as convergent bands move into the area. This scenario often
occurs with weaker, smaller systems that lack the vertical depth
necessary for the trough to influence their motion. This
possibility is increasingly reflected in the short-term model
consensus and warrants continued monitoring.

In either case, a gradual warming trend is expected Monday
through Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to reach the mid to
upper 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. However, uncertainty remains
regarding these peak temperatures, as diurnal thunderstorm
activity and potential tropical influences could mitigate daytime
heating. Trends will be monitored closely, particularly for
Tuesday and Wednesday, as heat indices may approach or exceed
105 degrees depending on temperature adjustments in subsequent
forecasts.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions could be briefly interrupted by
scattered afternoon thunderstorms after 18Z, prompting the
inclusion of PROB30 for all sites. This activity could linger
after 00Z at KMGM and KAUO due to a convective band rotating
around a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The warm and humid air mass will continue through the next
several days across Central AL. Increasing tropical moisture
associated with a weak disturbance in the Eastern Gulf is
expected across the area over the weekend, which will increase
rain chances each afternoon, especially for the eastern half of
Central AL. There are no critical fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  73  92  73 /  30  20  60  20
Anniston    91  73  92  73 /  30  20  60  30
Birmingham  92  75  94  74 /  30  20  50  30
Tuscaloosa  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  30  20
Calera      94  74  95  74 /  30  20  40  30
Auburn      90  74  91  74 /  40  30  60  40
Montgomery  94  74  94  74 /  50  30  50  40
Troy        92  73  92  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...87/Grantham