128
FXUS64 KBMX 060524
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

 - There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Friday
   afternoon and evening with the primary risk being damaging
   straight-line winds and hail up to quarter size.

-  There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms
   Saturday afternoon and evening with the primary risk being
   damaging straight-line winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

Central Alabama is in the middle of a pattern change across the
CONUS today, as the upper low that was to our south is now gone
and 500mb ridging has commenced. With a west to northwest flow at
500mb, drier air has moved in aloft which will keep most
convection at bay through the afternoon hours except for scattered
activity along and south of the I-85 corridor. A weak surface
boundary was analyzed along the I-20 corridor stretching eastward
into Central Georgia, connected with a surface low in the
Carolinas. This boundary will help to develop a few isolated
showers farther to the north and keep us in mostly cloudy
conditions through the afternoon, especially east of I-65. Once
clouds are able to mix out, forecast highs still appear on track
to top out in the mid 80s, with a few upper 80s west of I-65 as
more sunshine breaks out.

The train of upper level disturbances moving along the northern
periphery of the 500mb ridge centered over south Texas will be the
main focus of the forecast as we go into Friday and through the
weekend. The first shortwave will move into eastern Oklahoma and
Arkansas Friday morning, where an MCS is expected to develop and
move eastward. This MCS is expected to weaken before it moves
towards the Tennessee Valley, but low-level boundaries will
continue eastward. As daytime heating commences, high-res
guidance is picking up on scattered to numerous storms developing
during the afternoon, potentially aided with lift from mesoscale
boundaries. With shear increasing aloft from the west and
northwest, along with unstable conditions at the surface
(afternoon highs approaching 90 degrees) and drier air aloft, the
chance for severe storms remains in place over the CWA. Some CAM
forecast soundings are indicating that some storms could produce
downburst or microburst-type wind gusts and strong enough updrafts
to produce hail up to the size of quarters. Greatest severe
potential will be across the northern third of the CWA (level 2
out of 5). Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
elsewhere farther to the south. CAMs thus far are showing the most
widespread storms and potentially another MCS developing farther
to the north over Tennessee, but staying out of the forecast area.
With the pattern that we`re entering into, surprises can most
certainly happen with anything that develops to the north/west, so
we`ll keep an eye on the radar through Friday evening.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

High pressure in the western Gulf will strengthen through
Saturday, with a low pressure moving through the northern plains
and into the Great Lakes Sunday through Tuesday. Saturday, waves
of energy will move around the high, bringing convection to the
area. Models are doing a rather horrible job resolving timing
right now, so will advertise a general time frame of afternoon
through the evening. A few of the higher res models are hinting at
a more overnight time frame for the bulk of the activity, but
will wait for more consistency before applying updates.

With the afternoon heating and mid level winds increasing in the
afternoon, an MCS type feature is possible, with damaging winds
the main threat. Sunday as the low pressure and associated trough
begins to influence the weather over the state more, convergence
between northerly winds around the trough and southwesterly to
westerly winds around the ridge will allow for plenty of
development each afternoon through the extended. Any boundaries
left from the previous day`s development will influence how much
develops and where, but models are not as high resolution to
determine any of these details at this time.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

VFR conditions and light winds are currently in place across all
terminals. Have introduced TEMPO groups for MVFR fog from 09-13Z
as probabilities have trended up slightly for fog development.
Have also introduced VCTS with this update across all terminals
this afternoon through the evening hours. Additional activity is
possible just beyond this TAF window.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED at MGM due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move through the
area each day over the next few days and into the weekend. Winds
could become gusty near any thunderstorm activity. No major fire
weather concerns are anticipated as RHs remain on the higher side
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  68  89  68 /  60  30  70  70
Anniston    88  70  87  71 /  50  20  70  60
Birmingham  90  73  89  71 /  60  20  70  60
Tuscaloosa  91  73  89  73 /  50  20  60  50
Calera      88  72  88  72 /  50  20  60  50
Auburn      88  72  89  73 /  40  20  50  30
Montgomery  91  73  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
Troy        90  71  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...95/Castillo