366
FXUS64 KBMX 210213
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
813 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 812 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025

 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast for parts of central
   Alabama Friday and Saturday.

 - An opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be
   focused on Friday and Tuesday. A low risk for a couple strong
   to severe thunderstorms may arise with the Tuesday system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 812 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025

No changes planned to the ongoing forecast at this time.

/61/

Previous discussion:
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025

Currently watching the first of several waves over the next few
days slide across northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. This
wave is riding along a warm front that has lifted into the
Tennessee Valley this morning. This front arcs around Alabama from
Little Rock to Nashville and then back south to Athens, Georgia.
This batch of showers and a few storms will slide along the front
and just clip our northern row of counties into the evening hours.
On Friday the cold front associated with this system will begin
to slide into the area from the west while the main low slides
into the Ohio Valley. The main dynamics will be well to the north
of the area on Friday, so really only looking at general storms
at best with the front. Only other weather concern for tonight
will be the potential for fog once again. With the added cloud
cover in the north, it appears that any dense fog should be
limited to the south. For now just went with patchy to areas of
fog in the south and will need to monitor the trends to our our
south tonight.

This front clears on Saturday and we will see high pressure build
into the area for Sunday and Monday as ridging develops over the
eastern CONUS. This ridging will be enhanced thanks to a cutoff
low that will develop across the western CONUS. This low will
slowly meander across the southwest US until a larger trough
begins to descend into the northwest on Monday. This larger scale
trough will absorb the cutoff low and then swing into the Southeast
Tuesday into Wednesday. We will need to continue to monitor the
trends on Tuesday as well as timing for any stronger to severe
storms. Right now the confidence remains low for any widespread
activity.

The main upper low associated with the parent system will slide
well into the southern portions of central Canada, with a
reinforcing cold front on Wednesday to finally clear out the area
and bring in some Fall weather. Just in time for Thanksgiving with
some actually below normal temperatures expected. Will need to
monitor the trends over the next few days, but there are some low
probabilities of a cold rain during the day Thursday with one of
the models ensemble runs as the southern stream of the jet remains
active. More on that in the upcoming days.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025

All signs from the models point to VFR conditions across central
Alabama TAF sites overnight. Looks like just some high level
cirrus clouds. Should be no repeat of last night`s fog, as the low
levels have dried out a bit.

Next wave of rain is forecast to move into the area tomorrow.
Latest timing suggests it will be after 18z before the first bit
of rain gets into TCL, and spreads eastward from there. Once again
getting mixed signals from the models on ceilings during the
daylight hours tomorrow. I`ve again based the TAFs on the
mesoscale model that is a bit more pessimistic in bringing
ceilings down below 3000 ft as the rain moves in (if not before).
There will probably be even lower ceilings just beyond the 24 hour
valid time of this set of forecasts.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values remain above critical thresholds over the next
several days. An opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is
forecast on Friday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011

November 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  74  62  76 /  10  70  70  20
Anniston    58  75  64  75 /  10  60  70  20
Birmingham  59  72  65  76 /  10  70  60  20
Tuscaloosa  58  73  64  78 /  10  70  50  20
Calera      56  74  64  78 /   0  70  60  20
Auburn      57  77  65  77 /   0  20  40  20
Montgomery  56  79  66  81 /   0  40  40  10
Troy        55  79  65  81 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/