627
FXUS63 KBIS 061141
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures continue through tonight, with
  highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 20s.

- Warmer beginning Thursday, but sub-freezing low temperatures
  return to the forecast Saturday night.

- Only occasional low chances for light precipitation through
  the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A deck of stratus clouds has been persisting longer than
expected over central and eastern North Dakota since last night.
The sky cover forecast has been updated to better reflect
current observations and trends. It does appear that the RAP is
starting to better capture these clouds, which projects them
gradually eroding from west to east this afternoon. Meanwhile,
a clear sky across western North Dakota overnight allowed
temperatures to plummet into the teens in low-lying, sheltered
areas.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A persistent Hudson Bay low will maintain a predominant
northwest cyclonic flow pattern over the Northern Plains
through the weekend. Occasional embedded shortwaves combined
with diurnal heating could generate a few light showers at
times, but the probability for measurable precipitation at any
given location (aside from the southwest corner of the state)
is very low.

An unseasonably cold and dry air mass remains entrenched over
the region this morning within a broad surface ridging regime.
A shortwave digging south through Saskatchewan will reach North
Dakota this afternoon and commence weak warm air advection, but
not enough to allow afternoon temperatures to rise above the
upper 40s east to mid 50s west. The timing of the shortwave is
highly favorable for diurnal shower development, but as was the
case yesterday, there is uncertainty if there will be enough
moisture available. We kept a 15 to 20 percent chance of light
showers in the forecast from the Turtle Mountains through the
James River Valley this afternoon. Most of any precipitation
that develops would fall as rain, but it may be cold enough for
snow, sleet, or graupel in the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake
Basin areas if anything develops early in the afternoon. Winds
this afternoon will remain out the northwest, but not be as
strong as the past few days at only around 10 to 15 mph.

Another night of sub-freezing temperatures is forecast to be
followed by a more substantial warmup on Thursday, with highs
returning closer to early May normals in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Another shortwave embedded in the northwest cyclonic flow
could bring some light rain showers and perhaps a stray
thunderstorm across southwest North Dakota Thursday afternoon.
The warming trend continues on Friday as the northwest flow
aloft briefly turns anticyclonic. The NBM shows high confidence
in above normal high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the western half of the state on Friday. Stronger
northwest winds are also set to return on Friday though, which
could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions. A slightly
more potent shortwave is then forecast to dig through the
Canadian prairie provinces towards the western Great Lakes late
Friday through Saturday, driving a cold front through the
region. This is forecast to lead to a modest cool down for
Saturday, perhaps with a relatively higher but still overall
low chance for showers. Meanwhile, a separate shortwave ejecting
off the Northern Rockies could bring more persistent shower
activity to far southwest parts of the state on Saturday.

The cooler air mass is forecast to linger through the weekend,
with low temperatures mostly in the 30s. Saturday night is
favored to be slightly cooler than Sunday night, with the latest
NBM projecting widespread lower to mid 30s and even some upper
20s. With the growing season officially beginning on Friday, it
is looking increasingly likely that frost/freeze headlines will
be needed this weekend. Ensembles favor slightly warmer
temperatures next week (60s and 70s for highs, 40s for lows) as
flow aloft remains northwesterly but turns more active as upper
level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest. Precipitation
chances are likely to become more frequent and perhaps higher
early to mid next week, but predictability at this time range
remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A
stratus deck with ceilings around 5,000 ft will persist over
central and eastern North Dakota this morning, slowly lifting
and eroding from the west through the afternoon. Isolated light
rain showers could approach KJMS this afternoon, with no
impacts to aviation expected. Light and variable winds early
this morning will become northwesterly around 10 kts later this
morning and afternoon, then return to light and variable this
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan