066
FXUS63 KBIS 251031
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
431 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frigid temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills continue
  today into Monday morning.

- Warmer but still below average temperatures for the coming
  work week. Windy conditions on Monday.

- Only occasional low chances for light snow this coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Broad upper level troughing is analyzed from northern Ontario
through North Dakota early this morning. At the surface, Arctic
high pressure is drifting from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba
into North Dakota. Light snow/flurries ahead of the Arctic air
mass continue across southern parts of the state, but have
become less commonly observed over the past few hours.
Meanwhile, clearing skies within the Arctic air mass have
allowed temperatures to fall into the 20s below, with isolated
30s below readings. Another period of dangerous to life-
threatening wind chills, as low as 50 below across the north,
continues this morning. But this should be the last period of
cold this extreme for awhile. With the Arctic air mass firmly in
place over the region this afternoon, High temperatures are
expected to remain below zero, and could even be as cold as 15
below in the Turtle Mountains area. A 10 mph wind this afternoon
will prevent wind chills from climbing above 15 below southwest
to around 30 below northeast. A stronger Pacific warm front
will approach the region tonight. Minimum overnight temperatures
around 10 to 20 below zero are likely to occur this evening,
with slowly rising temperatures through the late night.
Southwest winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph along
with the rising temperatures though, rendering another night of
wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero. Through noon CST
today, an Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for counties
north and east of the Missouri River and along and north of
I-94, with a Cold Weather Advisory for all other counties. Then
from noon today to 9 AM CST Monday morning, a Cold Weather
Advisory is now in effect for all counties north and east of
the river.

Model guidance keeps trending south with a clipper system
cutting through the Red River Valley on Monday. It now appears
that only southwest North Dakota could see an appreciable amount
of time under this system`s warm sector, and only during the
morning. It will still be a much warmer day for all, with
forecast highs ranging from around 10 above zero northeast to 25
southwest. But it will also be windier behind the cold front
attendant to the clipper. Soundings show mean mixing potential
around 30 kts with modest cold air advection and pressure rises.
Will likely see sustained northwest winds around 20 to 25 mph
with gusts to around 35 mph Monday afternoon. Additionally, a
few CAMs clip the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake Basin with a
band of snow along the cold front. Will hold off on adding this
potential to the forecast for now, as the probability for
measurable snow is no greater than 10 percent.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, ensembles are consolidating on the
placement of a baroclinic zone and surface ridge axis between an
eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge. The baroclinic
zone is favored to set up near the Montana/North Dakota border
on Tuesday, bringing forecast high temperatures back down closer
to zero northeast to around 20 southwest. Wednesday could see a
slight eastward shift in the baroclinic zone, allowing for just
a few degrees added to the high temperature forecast. NBM
temperature spread is low on Tuesday but increases in southwest
North Dakota on Wednesday in closer proximity to the baroclinic
zone. A subset of ensemble members produce light snow associated
with low to mid level frontogenesis across central North Dakota
late Tuesday into Wednesday, but this does look to be over the
surface ridge axis. Every ensemble cluster has low to medium
chances for measurable snow with this feature, but placement
uncertainty limits NBM probabilities to no greater than 10
percent at this time.

A shortwave trough originating from Hudson Bay is favored to
drop down from Canada Thursday into Friday, pushing up against
the western CONUS ridge that is trying to expand/shift eastward.
NBM precipitation chances have now increased to near 20 percent
Thursday morning through Friday morning. The baroclinic zone
could get shoved back westward by the shortwave, and while NBM
temperature spread does increase, the distributions have shifted
cooler from previous forecasts for both Thursday and Friday. It
is now not until next Saturday that we see a distinct increase
in the NBM temperature trend-lines. Ensemble temperature spread
actually becomes maximized on Saturday before shrinking heading
into the first week of February, with the medians of the NBM
distributions settling closer to near or perhaps even above
normal. Also worth noting in the extended period is that the NBM
has introduced a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation next
Saturday when ensembles hint at a transition to an active
northwest flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 426 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Light snow/flurries along with pockets of MVFR ceilings will
continue to diminish from north to south this morning, giving
way to VFR conditions that are expected to last through the
forecast period. Westerly to northerly winds around 5 to 10 kts
through this afternoon, then becoming southwesterly and
increasing to 10 to 15 kts this evening through tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Monday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NDZ046>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan