544
FXUS61 KBGM 311849
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area Tonight through the weekend
bringing dry, mostly sunny and seasonable weather conditions.
Warm and sunny weather continues into early next week with the
next chance for any showers likely not arriving until the middle
or end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM Update

The heavy rain threat looks to be shifting south early this
afternoon as surface observations show that the surface front has
made it through NEPA and into the Poconos. Looping visible Satellite
there has been a stalled boundary just south of Luzerne that will
likely slowly sag south through the afternoon as the surface low
associated with the MCV moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast. It
looks like our threat of heavy rain has subsided as forecast
soundings show some mid level capping moving in with some 850 mb to
700 mb ridging building in suppressing any elevated convection.
NEPA may still see some higher rates as the mid level ridge
wont move in until later this evening but with the deep
convection already to the south, the low level jet will have a
tough time getting north enough to feed and sustain any
convection in our area.

With high pressure moving in tonight into tomorrow a little faster
than forecast, sky cover was lowered for tomorrow morning into the
early afternoon and chances of precipitation were removed after 12Z.
Dry and cool conditions will prevail tomorrow afternoon into
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

The short term will have a seasonably strong Canadian surface high
in place with a long wave trough overhead. This will lead to low dew
points with well below average low temperatures as conditions are
favorable for radiational cooling each night. Highs will still get
warm with full sun and low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update...

The long term will start dry with the high pressure remaining in
place through mid next week but as the long wave trough slowly
becomes less amplified and retrogrades back to the west,
temperatures will warm and higher dew points slowly return. Still
given some mid and low level ridging in ensemble 500 mb heights, it
will be tough to get storms to develop but cant rule out some
embedded short waves with the SW flow developing late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of rain will persist into this evening across CNY, with
MVFR/Fuel-Alt to IFR restrictions at ELM, ITH and BGM. Showers
will be more scattered around AVP through early evening which
could contain locally heavy downpours, but the threat for any
lightning is low, then a steadier rain develops. Rain is
expected to taper off from northwest to southeast later this
evening into the overnight hours. Some clearing is expected
across the CNY terminals with cooler, drier air moving in. With
today`s rainfall keeping the surface moist combined with the
clearing, areas of fog are expected, with ITH and ELM having the
best chance followed by RME and BGM. By 12-14Z through the rest
of the TAF, VFR conditions will be in place as high pressure
starts to move in.

Outlook...

Friday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...DK