043
FXUS61 KBGM 060557
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
157 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues today as the associated frontal
boundary stalls with more potential for a few strong to severe
storms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Some
additional showers and embedded thunder are forecast into
Saturday as well, before the stalled front finally moves again
and exits. This will allow a quieter second half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM Update...
Scattered showers and isolated thunder will still occur for
some locations overnight, with areas of fog forming especially
for where heavy rain fell. A Flash Flood Warning was issued
earlier for South Central to Southeastern Chenango County into
Southern Otsego County, where a stripe of radar-estimated
1.5-2.5 inches of rain occurred in fairly short order earlier
this evening; perhaps even up to 3.0 inches as a maximum though
there may have been some hail contamination. Some flooded
roadways resulted northwest of Bainbridge.

Previous discussion...
Friday will be similar to what occurred today though with more
low level moisture and clouds so low level lapse rates will not
be as steep and there will be more mid level moisture. The
environment is not quite as favorable for microburst but with a
250 mb jet max nosing in with potential for some better shear
near 30 knots across more of the CWA, there is a chance for more
stronger storms again in the afternoon. The surface trough will
remain in place through Friday night so once again, the threat
of showers and thunderstorms persist into the overnight hours
though they will not be severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
150 PM Update

Saturday remains unsettled as a 500 mb shortwave progresses
through the region. With PWATs around 1.5 inches and deep warm
cloud depths, heavy rain is likely with any storms that develop.
How widespread the heavy rain is will be dependent on MCS`s that
develop in the central plains Friday. Some of the CAMs show an
MCS becoming an MCV that brings a large cluster of showers and
thunderstorms through though if the MCV cant form, the surface
trough will slowly progress east with mainly pop up showers and
storms that will be slow movers but more isolated. Shear does
look the best on Saturday with the 500 mb shortwave moving
through with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear so once again,
isolated stronger storms are possible ahead of the trough.

Saturday night into Sunday, the coastal low continues to deepen
as it moves out to sea. Strengthening NW flow will help bring in
some drier air to bring a reprieve to the showers and
thunderstorms briefly. With the 250 mb jet becoming zonal across
the Northeast though at the base of a long wave trough, models
are hinting at another shortwave moving in by Sunday afternoon
with chances of showers an thunderstorms increasing once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
210 PM Update...

The long term remains unsettled with zonal flow at the base of a
long wave through keeping the high frequency of shortwave
troughs leading to shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble
probabilities of >1000 J/kg of CAPE and >30 knots of shear
creeps up to around 20% chance each afternoon. Chances of
precipitation were kept for each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday with instability developing each afternoon. While the
severe threat is going to be dependent on the timing of the
shortwave troughs, the heavy rain threat will remain with a
warm, moist environment in place and flow coming out of the Gulf
maintaining access for these shortwaves to higher precipitable
water.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictive conditions will continue for the NY terminals, with
abundant moisture from prior and upcoming rains. KAVP ended up
missing out on rain Thursday yet has cloud cover moving in, so
valley fog is unlikely early this morning. However, scattered
showers and eventually thunder can be expected for KAVP this
afternoon. For the NY terminals, additional showers are
expected and embedded thunder will probably occur for a few
locations. Unlike KAVP though, confidence is not high enough
yet for TEMPO groups/specific timing of thunder. For all
terminals in general, improvements late morning into afternoon
could be briefly interrupted by a shower or storm, and then
ceilings will start to lower again in the evening. Light winds
throughout the period, unless getting a direct hit from a storm.

Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Front in vicinity with
waves of low pressure will cause occasional showers and
associated restrictions. A chance for embedded thunder as well
Saturday, mainly towards KAVP.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Rain gone Saturday night, but
wet ground will probably generate fog for at least KELM and
possibly others Saturday Night. Otherwise, low pressure moving
east with small chance of lingering showers but improving
conditions.

Monday into Tuesday...Potential for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MDP