672
AXNT20 KNHC 230426
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0426 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning
is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States,
north of 30N between 70W and 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing
cold front that is quickly moving across the waters N and NE of
the Bahamas through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur
north of 30N tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany
these winds, north of 28N between 77W and 60W. Long-period N
swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of
25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this
weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week
east of 65W.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 09N13W and
extends southwestward to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to
05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N
between 23W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is dominating the weather across the basin.
Moderate NW to N winds are occurring E of 88W. Light to gentle
winds are occurring elsewhere. Moderate seas are observed across
the majority of the Gulf, while the NW Gulf is seeing slight
seas.

For the forecast, moderate NW to N winds over the E Gulf will
change little through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds
Sat. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Gulf
will shift eastward through the weekend, with winds elsewhere
across the basin diminishing to light to gentle speeds. The high
pressure will be centered over the NE Gulf early next week, with
moderate to fresh southerly winds developing over the western
Gulf starting late Sat and continue through early Mon. A weak
cold front may move into the far western Gulf early next week,
then stall and weaken. A return of moderate to fresh southerly
winds is expected again over the western Gulf Tue night through
Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to just east
of Jamaica and to near the border between Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean
in the vicinity of the front, and the eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough, generally south of 15N. Another
area of scattered moderate convection is occurring between 67W
and 70W in association with a surface trough along 69W. Fresh to
strong N to NW winds and moderate seas are occurring behind the
stationary front, impacting most of the northwestern Caribbean
west of 79W. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of
the basin, where light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba
to Jamaica to the Nicaragua offshore waters will weaken and
dissipate over the weekend. Strong N winds behind the front, in
the lee side of E Cuba and over the Nicaragua offshores, will
diminish to fresh speeds by Sat evening. A tightening pressure
gradient between developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and
high pressure building over the SE United States will lead to
the development of fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages on
Sat. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas in E
swell will develop across much of the basin Sun into the middle
of next week. Otherwise, a surface trough from Dominican
Republic to the central Caribbean waters, which is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms, is forecast to reach the W
Caribbean by Sun and stall into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of the SW N Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N64W to 21N75W. Fresh to
strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are occurring
along and ahead of this front, generally north of 26N. A few
showers are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front
is moving across the region from 31N70W to 27N76W. Recent
scatterometer data indicates near-gale to gale force NW winds
and rough seas occurring behind this front. To the east, a
surface trough is analyzed over the N of the Lesser Antilles
from 17N60W to 24N57W with scattered showers. A trough is
producing scattered moderate convection from 11N to 15N between
59W and 61W. Another trough, analyzed from 18N40W to 26N32W, is
leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along
and to the east of the trough. Elsewhere, surface ridging
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters with
gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W
SW to the Turks and Caicos where it stalls to E Cuba. A
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N69W SW to the northern
Bahamas with continued gale force winds ahead and behind it and
over the waters N of 30N between 68W and 72W. The reinforcing
front will merge with the leading front late tonight, at which
time the gale conditions are expected to diminish. Rough seas to
18 ft will continue with the gale winds tonight while fresh to
near gale force winds and seas to 12 ft will continue to affect
the SW subtropical waters N of 27N through Sun. The front will
exit the region late Sun, however rough seas associated with it
will shift eastward, reaching to E of 60W from Tue through Wed.

$$
KRV