093
AXNT20 KNHC 060443
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0443 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38.5 S of
13N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are depicted from 04N to 07N between 34W and 41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to 07N24W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N36W. It resumes to the W of the
above described tropical wave near 05N41W to near 06N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of
41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
eastern Gulf of America while a trough is analyzed from near
22.5N88W to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted south of 19.5N over the central Bay of
Campeche. The pressure gradient in place is generally allowing for
light to gentle S to SW winds over the eastern Gulf, and for
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, except for
fresh E to SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in
the 3 to 5 ft range across the basin.

Satellite imagery reveals that skies are hazy over the Florida
peninsula and the eastern Gulf due to the presence of the Saharan
Air Layer (SAL).

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into the
eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into the
central Gulf late Sun through early next week. Moderate to fresh E
to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE
winds across the western and south-central Gulf through Mon
between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between rather weak high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the southern
Caribbean and in northern S America is allowing for fresh to
strong trades across the most of the basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras, and the Windwards Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over the
central section of the basin, 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Satellite imagery reveals scattered to
numerous moderate convection S of 14.5N and west of 74W due to the
eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic Fri
through the upcoming weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build
SW into the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through early next
week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin and Gulf
of Honduras through Fri evening, diminish slightly on Sat, then
increase across most of the basin Sat night into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N58W southwestward to
27N66W. A few clusters of scattered moderate convection are
evident over the waters E and NE of northern Florida to near 78W.
This activity is out ahead of a stationary front that is over the
southeastern U.S., and a lingering upper-level trough that
stretches from eastern Georgia to the eastern Gulf of America.
Water vapor imagery depicts broad upper- level troughing that is
over the central Atlantic N of about 20.5N and between 53.5W and
57W. An area of isolated showers is noted along this trough.
Farther to the E, a trough is analyzed along 33W from 21N to 30N.
No significant convection is occurring with this trough. High
pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical
waters as a 1031 mb high center is well N of the area near 39N40W.
The pressure gradient in place is generally supporting moderate
to fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas over most of Atlantic S of 20N
and east of 55W. North of 20N and east of 55W, winds are mainly
moderate with seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker trades along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft remain elsewhere.

Satellite imagery continues to exhibit an extensive outbreak
of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that covers the vast majority of
the eastern Atlantic. A thin swath of this SAL outbreak,
has migrated westward to the northern Caribbean and to some
areas of the western Atlantic, including to over the Florida
peninsula.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front SE of Bermuda
will drift northward and dissipate through Fri night. Weak high
pressure NW of this front will shift NE and into the central
Atlantic Fri into Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue.
Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening
offshore of Hispaniola through the period.

$$
KRV