030
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently across
the NW Gulf will sweep SE across the rest of the basin through
Mon evening. Strong arctic high pressure building behind the
front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW
portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the
offshore waters of Tampico through Mon morning, and gales over the
waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon. Seas
are expected to quickly build to 8 ft across the basin tonight,
reaching to 12-17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions will
improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE
into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the region.
Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by a surface
trough just north of the ITCZ, is from 03N to 10N between 35W and
50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Strong
to near-gale force NW winds and 7-9 ft seas are behind the front
across the NW Gulf waters. As of 1500 UTC, a warm front previously
analyzed in the NE Gulf has lifted inland over the Florida
Panhandle. Ahead of the aforementioned strong cold front, fresh to
strong SE to S winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Winds may locally
reach near-gale force speeds in the north-central and NE waters.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will sweep across the
rest of the basin through Mon evening. Strong arctic high pressure
building behind the front is expected to produce near gale force
winds across NW portions of the Gulf today through Mon, gale force
winds over the offshore waters of Tampico from late tonight
through Mon morning, and similar winds over the waters near
Veracruz from Mon morning to late Mon night. Seas are expected to
quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected
ahead of the front, mainly in the north central and NE Gulf
sections. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue
through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean
and high pressure builds settles across the northern Gulf.
Mariners are advised to keep alert with the latest forecasts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered near the Canary
Islands extends a large ridge and modest pressure gradient across
the Caribbean. The latest satellite scatterometer indicates gentle
to moderate trades across the basin, and recent satellite
altimeter data supports an analysis of 3-6 ft seas across the
basin. The exceptions to the prevailing winds and seas, as usual,
is in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where
scatterometer indicates locally strong trades and seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic
will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic
supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue,
while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night.
Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside
into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early
Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin
to stall from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into
Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will
follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on
Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as
stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of
America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is draped along 29N, from 50W to 70W. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds are north of the front. Seas from 8-11 ft are north
of a line extending from 31N50W to 28N71W to 28N80W. Elsewhere,
1030 mb subtropical high pressure centered near the Canary Islands
dominates the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. The strong
pressure gradient across the waters supports fresh to strong
trades south of 25N and east of 45W. These persistent strong winds
have built seas to 8-11 ft across the deep tropics, including on
approaches to the Lesser Antilles. 12-14 ft seas are across the
east Atlantic waters east of 25W between the Canary Islands and
Cabo Verde.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will
develop over the NW forecast waters late this afternoon through
early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is
expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. The
front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to west
Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and
weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue
afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as
another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast
waters, reaching from near 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu
evening.

$$
Mahoney