998
FNUS53 KAPX 041919
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...One Last Abnormally Warm and Dry Day for Most before Rain Chances
Return with a Cooldown on Monday...

.DISCUSSION...We are looking at one more day of anomalous warmth
across the Northwoods on Sunday. Anticipating winds to trend
stronger as well... with southwest winds sustained 10 to 20 mph,
and occasional 25 to 35 mph gusts. With highs in the 80s across
the board, the only thing that will keep us from attaining Red
Flag conditions will be that RHs largely fail to go much under 35
across the interior terrain. Nonetheless, the combination of
warmth, wind, drying vegetation, and ice storm debris will easily
land us in elevated fire danger once again. The good news is that
a cold front is on its way later Sunday night into Monday, which
will bring an appreciable chance of some shower, along with a
cooldown to far more seasonable temperatures for most Monday.
Areas generally south and east of a Cadillac to Alpena line will
surge back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, while the rest of
northern lower generally settles in the mid 60s to lower 70s with
rain chances. As such, may see an additional period of favorable
fire growth across the Huron National Forest early Monday before
cooler air and rain showers intrude later in the day. Looking
ahead, sharply cooler weather and perhaps a lingering shower are
on the docket for Tuesday, with seasonable (but still abnormally
warm) weather carrying through much of the remainder of next week.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-050830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........72-77 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (44).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1431).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (98).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    until 1200, then rain likely.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (427).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-050830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (38).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1374).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain likely after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (955).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-050830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........76-81 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (56).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1474).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 27 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (115).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Rain likely.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (466).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.13 in.
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-050830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1527).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (84).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (654).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-050830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (43).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....81-86.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1593).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (61).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1196).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...15 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD