881
FXUS63 KAPX 311822
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with seasonable temperatures through the
  weekend.

- Varying degrees of Canadian wildfire smoke to impact the area
  the next few days.

- Shower/storm chances return during the next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Pattern Synopsis: A ridge west/trof east configuration is in
place across much of North America, although weaker zonal flow
lies across the southern half of the United States. This pattern
will persist through the short term and beyond. At the surface,
high pressure is centered in the vicinity of the Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: Not a whole lot of concerns with the sensible
weather through the period. The local air mass is quite dry and
trending drier, and the CU field in place will fade with the
loss of diurnal heating. Less diurnal cloud development is
expected for Friday. Temperatures will fall into the upper
40s-lower 50s tonight (coolest inland), and climb back into the
70s for Friday.

A break in at least the near surface based Canadian wildfire
smoke is expected later tonight, but the northwesterly flow
aloft should keep higher level smoke in the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Pattern Synopsis: Ridge west/trof east configuration lingers
through most of the weekend, but will become less amplified with
time. This will leave a more zonal flow, albeit weak, across the
lower 48 states for the first half of the next work week.

Forecast Details: Quiet weather should persist through the
weekend with the stagnant pattern in place. Temperatures will
moderate a bit each day as upper-level heights rise. That being
said, temperatures will still only be at or a few degrees above
normal for early August. Generally low shower/storm chances
return for the next work week, but given the weak flow regime
anticipated it`s not possible to much detail into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Prevailing NE flow 5-10kts, gusting 10-15kts this afternoon; MBL
could see winds back to NNW this afternoon. Otherwise winds largely
diminish tonight and stay generally light and northerly into Friday
AM. Smoke clearing out from N to S this afternoon with visbys
expected to improve for all sites by around 21z. Daytime clouds to
continue bubbling up this afternoon, with bases expected to remain
around 4-7kft. Could see some 4-5kft cloud bases hang on into
tonight/Friday AM. Light flow tonight suggests fog is a possibility;
have alluded to this idea esp in CIU/PLN/APN where overnight
offshore flow could enhance fog potential; less certain at MBL but
included some visby reductions anyway.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ024-
     030-036.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...FEF