744
FXUS63 KAPX 060635
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable for most today; a few showers in the
  eastern Yoop this afternoon.

- Dry for the weekend with highs in the 70s.

- Next widespread rain and thunder chances build Sunday night.

- Cooler and unsettled Monday and Tuesday.

- Trending warmer and more humid later next week; potential for
  active weather remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Dilapidated surface high pressure right overhead, with minimal cloud
cover allowing for a solid radiational cooling response to
materialize, as temps have fallen into the 40s and lower 50s across
the board. Some increasing cloud cover to note across the eastern
Yoop, a trend that will continue as a weak wave progresses into
northern Quebec and forces a weaker cold front south and east into
the region with time today. Advancement of this front will be quite
slow as upper level flow remains rather quick out of the WSW, and
eventually becomes parallel with the orientation of the front.
Considering the meager moisture in the area courtesy of a stalled
stationary boundary over the Ohio Valley, not anticipating much out
of this boundary as it makes its way through the area. Best shower
chances will be over eastern upper later today as the front inches
closer courtesy of some meager mid level moisture forcing some
elevated instability, and with that increase in clouds, likely holds
MaxTs in the mid to upper 60s. There is potential for some of this
activity to leak into the Straits and far northwest lower this
evening, but overall, any rain that falls should be rather light and
unimpactful. Otherwise, anticipating most areas see a seasonably
warm day with highs in the low-to-mid 70s (with lake breeze
processes activating, it will be in the 60s near the shores). This
front will make its way southward into Friday night, but with
lacking instability, the theme seems to be just some increase in
cloud cover for tonight, with temperatures generally settling in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Aforementioned cold frontal boundary will diminish right overhead
over the course of the weekend, with another area of high pressure
building into the region, promoting drier conditions across the
board through the weekend. Highs generally hold in the mid 70s
Saturday, cooling a touch into the upper 60s and lower 70s Sunday.
Some uncertainty with any additional wildfire smoke intruding, but
considering our airmass will have its origins in Canada, will have
to see how that all shakes out in the coming days. Next item of
meteorological importance will be a broadening area of surface low
pressure currently over far northern Saskatchewan digging south and
east with time, bringing a more unsettled stretch of weather back to
the region for next week. As of now, surface high pressure looks to
hold service to keep us dry during the day Sunday. First element to
contend with this intruding system will be a cold frontal boundary
passage later Sunday night into Monday which could bring a round of
showers and thunder to the region. Details on severe weather with
this passage remain unclear, but with the nocturnal passage, a
pretty robust response from the LLJ will likely be required to keep
convective intensity going as this band of precipitation passes
through... and the signal from longer term guidance remains
unimpressive in that regard.

In the wake of the frontal passage, cooler conditions look to build
into next week, but with continued forcing from the upper low,
anticipate continued unsettled weather Monday into Tuesday. Guidance
wants to force this system eastward into northern Quebec rather
quickly, with ridging and quick progressive WNW flow building
quickly on its heels. Will have to watch how this pattern evolves
later next week, as this is a conceptually good setup for MCS
activity to ramp up across the northern Plains and crest the ridge
into the Great Lakes. As of now, guidance trends do not really give
us much favorability to bag the core of these lines of storms as the
steering flow should deflect much of this activity southward into the
Corn Belt and perhaps into downstate... but this is mesoscale mania,
and we all know that global long range guidance is about as
effective with resolving the exact trajectory of an MCS as I am at
remaining civil while watching my sports teams play sportsball. The
long and short? More details to come as this more active pattern
shows more of its cards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period at this time. Will
be monitoring the potential for any BR out there tonight, but
the potential looks less than yesterday. Otherwise, CIGs
gradually lower through tomorrow to around OVC070-100. Might be
a few -SHRA around KCIU Friday afternoon, but little in the way
of impacts expected. Winds light overall, generally north to
northeast.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD