904
FXUS63 KAPX 211729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1229 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to perhaps moderate snow accums today/tonight in parts of nw
  and far northern lower MI.

- Potentially dangerous cold outbreak Thursday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

A weak surface low crosses lower MI today, just ahead of a shortwave
trof moving thru the broader upper trof over eastern NA. A swath of
increasing synoptic moisture is evident on satellite/radar over
WI/MI. Wsw-flow lake enhancement has developed over far northern
lower MI (Emmet/Charlevoix Cos and environs).

Absolute moisture remains low given the chilly airmass, but those
values are higher further south in the state where warm advection
will be a bit deeper/more effective. The swath of better synoptic
snow scrapes by the southern edge of this forecast area. Our main
concern is and will be lake enhancement in sw/wsw flow off of Lake
MI. The lake enhanced area, and the synoptic snow area, overlap in
Manistee Co. An advisory is already up there, and only there. That
seems pretty reasonable, with a long strip of slightly smaller
accums along the entire nw lower MI coastline, up into Drummond
Isl. 1-3" for the overnight/morning in the above area, with
Manistee Co at around 3".

A sharper upper trof slides across the area this evening, along
with a surface cold front, and a wind shift to a wnw fetch. Moisture
availability so quick behind the early today system is quite poor,
but another very quick shot of ok lake enhancement is progged near
and west of a Lake City-Cheboygan line this evening. Have a general
1-3" late this afternoon into tonight in nw and far n central lower
MI, and far nw Chippewa Co, with the highest in far northern lower
MI. Consideration was given to issuing an advisory for Charlevoix/
Emmet/Cheboygan Cos, either just for this evening, or alternatively
for right now thru this evening (even with a lull for part of the
afternoon). Decided to hold off for now; period of better snow this
evening does not have a lot of wind (winds pick up overnight).

Transition to pure wnw-flow lake effect overnight, as 850mb temps
tumble back toward -20C. This will be unimpressive in northern lower
MI, with a shorter fetch and drier air inbound. A better band will
likely be sustained into nw Chippewa Co (accums up to 2" Paradise
and north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Cold closed low (500mb heights to near 495dm) will rotate
across northern Ontario late this week, then eject toward the
Gulf of St Lawrence by Saturday. Another shortwave trof perhaps
slips in from the w or nw by Sunday or more likely Monday,
though model differences are increasing quite a bit by then
(with the ECMWF looking more amplified then some other
solutions).

Lake effect snow coverage will be respectable Thursday into Friday
morning, with all the instability we could ever want. But as 850mb
temps tumble well past -20C, a usable DGZ will be increasingly
difficult to find. Have reduced snow-liquid ratios Thursday and
beyond into the low-mid teens. That help keeps northern lower MI
snow amounts in the up to 2" range Thu-Thu night combined, with
perhaps some 3"s. Chippewa Co should do better, 2-6" north of M-28,
with the highest amounts in nw Chip.

The biggest and well-advertised primary impact is the incoming
Arctic blast, and the coldest air of the winter thus far. 850mb
temps will be close to -30C by Friday morning. Surface temps
will be steadyish in the teens Thursday, then plunge below zero
across northern MI by daybreak Friday. Daytime highs Friday near
0f to the single digits above, and widespread sub-zero readings
again that night. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s
below zero from late Thu night into Sat morning. A high impact
cold outbreak continues to be expected.

Slow moderation in temps is progged late in the weekend into early
next week, though how long that lasts is uncertain. Temps remain
well below normal even with this moderation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light snow continues to spread across northern Michigan early
this afternoon with a brief reprieve in conditions. Some VFR has
mixed in across some of the terminals, but is not expected to
last as we head into this evening/ tonight... Conditions will
trend to IFR to LIFR at times. Wind will turn west and increase
this evening with occasional gusts to 25 knots, especially
towards the end of the period. Light snow will become moderate
at times this evening into tonight with accumulating snow
expected through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Friday for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
     for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...NSC