006
FXUS63 KAPX 062004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate rain tonight over northern lower with a few
  isolated non-severe storms

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday, with frost/freeze
concerns each morning

- Rain could return this weekend, however confidence remains low

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A broken band of clouds and rain is slowly moving across northern MI
this afternoon. A few isolated storms are seen over northern lower
this afternoon, producing lightning with small hail and gusty
outflow winds possible. Chances for isolated storms will continue
into the early evening hours, but will drop quickly once
temperatures start to fall later this evening. Surface observations
currently place the surface cold front along a line from Ludington
towards Alpena. This font will continue to slowly move through
northern lower this evening, with the chances for isolated storms
right along and head of the boundary. Cooler temperatures, northwest
winds, and light to moderate rain will encompass most of northern
lower tonight. Total rain amounts tonight into early Tuesday morning
will remain around a tenth to a quarter of an inch, with locally
higher amounts up to a half inch.

Clouds and light rain will slowly exit Tuesday morning. Temperatures
will remain cooler, with breezy northwest winds seen. Surface high
pressure will continue to build in later Tuesday, as a secondary
push turns winds north. No precipitation will be seen with this, as
dry air starts to settle in for late Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Surface high pressure (a 1035 mb high) will dominate the Great Lakes
region for most of the work week, keeping temperatures cooler and
winds light. Low temperatures will approach freeze conditions early
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings. Dry air aloft, light
winds, and a cooler airmass will do little to stop efficient
radiative cooling. Typical cold spots could see lows drop into the
low to mid 20s, especially early Thursday morning (which looks to be
the coldest morning for most spots). Mostly sunny skies, with
afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

The next chances for precipitation look to be this weekend (as early
as Friday), however low confidence exists for beneficial and/or
widespread rains. As of now, the forecast will remain seasonal to
slightly above normal for temperatures with generally dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Cold front continues to cross northern MI from northwest to
southeast this afternoon. Showers at CIU/PLN become more numerous
area-wide this evening/overnight before exiting north to south late
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds already out of the
northwest post-frontal passage at all terminals except APN...
expected to also veer northwest in the next couple of hours. Mix
of VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon with increasing probabilities
for MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs this evening through much of
tonight. Improvement back to VFR expected area-wide late
tonight/Tuesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MJG