513
FXUS63 KAPX 261052
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
652 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Monday, with rain/storms later Monday into Tuesday morning

- Cooler Tuesday and beyond with frost/freeze concerns likely

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

526dm upper low continues to swirl over the central Canadian
Prairies, bumbled along by 100+kt WSW sub-tropical jet across the
southwestern US...and a blocking ridge over Hudson Bay/514dm upper
low off the East Coast of Canada...giving the northern stream that
omega look. Across the central US...nebulous yet active...with cold
front draping from a low over western Ontario down through MN and
into KS, along which convective activity has focused. Cold front
loops back through the TX Panhandle, into CO, and through central
UT...along a confluence zone between the northern stream and
southern stream out west...where one PV maxima swirls down the PacNW
coast toward NoCal...and another upper low spins off the coast of
SoCal; latter feature helping to buckle the STJ a bit more SW.
Across the Midwest/Eastern US...upper ridging more or less hanging
on over the Midwest, resulting in generally quieter weather/pressure
rises in our vicinity for a change, though flow remains split
between this and troughing over the southeastern US...with a BCZ
stretching from TX to WV, along which the bulk of the moisture is
focused. Some moisture is sneaking northward along the cold front
into the Upper Great Lakes, around the perimeter of the mid-level
ridge...just not making great gains in the low levels, as largely
easterly flow across MI/IL keeps the return flow trapped across the
Mid MS Valley. Here in the northern Great Lakes...not a pure/clean
surface high by any means, as there is still low-level moisture
trapped overhead (per 0z sounding...and looking out the window at
the 1500ft cloud deck at 0z), though there is a fair bit of drier
air aloft.

Ridge axis overhead today will begin to migrate eastward...as PV
maxima off SoCal digs through the SW US into the southern/central
Plains...driving surface pressure falls across the central US and MS
Valley Sunday night. Will expect strong southerly/southeasterly flow
on Monday ahead of this system...which should cross the Midwest
Monday night into Tuesday; current signals point toward cold
front/trough axis sweeping through Michigan at some point Tuesday
morning as the surface low treks northeastward into Canada...leaving
cooler, northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes in its wake.
Another lobe of energy with the upper low will cross our area on
Wednesday...likely driving a surface response over the OH Valley.
This feature should bring colder air into the fray, as it will be
more "in phase" with the northern stream flow upper low near Hudson
Bay...with northwesterly flow aloft allowing for a feed of colder
air from central Canada into the Midwest/central US for mid-late
week, aided by another niblet dropping in Wednesday night/Thursday.
Upstream flow will be largely split through the period, with
southern stream niblets getting cutoff over SoCal and trying to slip
into the southern Plains late this week...with much more progressive
northern stream flow into the PacNW. This latter idea suggests we
may have occasional periods where ridging may try to interrupt the
cold flow, though it also appears the upper low over the eastern US
will be slow to move out and leave the upstream pattern (including
here in the Midwest?) a bit congested. Overall, signals point toward
colder trends across the eastern half of the US for the end of the
week, and perhaps beyond, if ridging is able to hold on more firmly
over the PacNW coast going into next week, and keep the door propped
open for cold air to funnel out of northern Canada.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Fire weather concerns Today/Monday...Today...expect we should dry
out quite well today with the ridging overhead, esp for northern
Lower, which, while highs will likely hang out in the upper 60s with
a few spots around 70 at best...could leave us with afternoon RHs in
the 25-35 percent range. Not impossible there could be enough low-
level moisture hanging around to temper the drying a bit, at least
initially...but think we should begin to mix out as the afternoon
goes on. Of much more concern is Monday...with a) much stronger
winds, and b) potential for warm temperatures. The question is, just
how much will we be able to warm on Monday, and how long will we be
able to hold onto the dry air? It`s looking like mid-level moisture
(even non-zero rain chances) could begin to overtake the region as
early as 18z Monday from the west as much more absolute moisture
forces its way in with time (pwats 1+in)...which suggests we may not
have as much time as we`d like to maximize afternoon heating.
South/southeast low-level flow will be strong...which would favor
warmer, downsloping temps over NW Lower where clouds/rain could move
in earlier. Additionally...have concerns the axis of maximum
warm/theta-e advection will be to our west over WI, immediately
ahead of the surface system on Monday. Antecedent dry conditions
should hang tough east of I-75 on Monday, and this could also be
where diurnal heating has a better shot at maximizing; thus, think
this will be the area of greatest concern for fire weather
conditions.

Strong winds Monday...Strong/tightly wound surface low to our west
Monday supports sustained southeasterly/south-southeasterly winds
increasing from 10-15kts to 15-25kts in the afternoon/evening, and
not out of the question winds could be a bit stronger than this,
even, where better channeling is possible (likely the
Straits/Whitefish Bay). Winds aloft should also strengthen...upwards
of 30-40kts in the afternoon and evening, and think there is a
reasonable shot at these mixing down. LLJ could be even stronger
overhead Monday evening into Monday night, which could support
potential for strong winds with any convection in the area. Not
impossible we could see a few areas reach wind advisory criteria
(sustained 30mph/gusts 45mph) conditions Monday afternoon outside of
any convection...and gales are likely on the lakes. Winds should
slowly taper off Tuesday behind the front (strongest pressure
gradient may remain to our north).

Rain/storms late Monday into Tuesday...As mentioned above, think it
is possible rain may begin to encroach on western portions of the
area as early as 18z Monday. Antecedent dry conditions should slow
things down, esp the further east you go...and low-level theta-e
advection may not be super favorable initially with the southeast
winds along a southeast-northwest gradient...but top-down saturation
does appear to win out with time. This idea also suggests we could
end up more stable aloft than we would like for convective purposes,
which is likely the primary reason we remain just outside the
outlooked area for day 2 from SPC (better instability should remain
to our south). Still...with this shortwave likely turning negatively
tilted as it crosses us Monday night...worth keeping a close eye on
for thunder concerns. Not impossible we could see a bit of warm-
advection activity develop across NE Lower in the afternoon, as some
guidance seems to hint at...but the bulk of the activity should be
the evening/overnight into Tuesday morning when a dry slot may cross
the area ahead of the cold front.

As far as heavy rain concerns...still quite a bit of uncertainty in
where the maxima will end up given the anticipated convective
nature. Anomalous moisture/moisture transport (pwats in the 1-1.25in
range; IVT in the 99th percentile) with this very dynamic system
remains a concern for being able to squeeze a lot of rain out over
some area, perhaps quite efficiently, too. Overall synoptic pattern
still has a Maddox Synoptic-Type look, further lending credence to
the possibility of heavy rain somewhere in the Great Lakes (though
potentially just to our south)...though fortunately, system appears
reasonably progressive, which could keep the higher totals from
sticking over any one area for too long. Prob guidance suggests the
best shot at 6hr rainfall totals greater than an inch would be
across NW Lower, and particularly W central MI...which fits the
stereotypical convective outbreak pattern for northern Michigan
(i.e., worst of it stays to our south and we get stratiform junk on
the northern edge of things). Still...that stratiform rain could be
a problem for areas across Manistee/Wexford counties in particular,
where high water levels/flooding continues attm. Also watching
potential for a rainfall maximum into part of the EUP Monday night,
north of potential warm front.

Colder weather for the remainder of the week...Much colder air
begins to funnel in behind the system Tuesday. Attm...Wednesday
night through Thursday night appear to be the coldest periods...with
850mb temps falling below zero, supporting highs in the 40s (and
perhaps struggling at that). This, with a typical 20-ish degree
diurnal temp swing, would easily put overnight lows in the
20s...which will be a concern given that our growing season has
begun (noting the amount of flowers and leaves starting to show up
out there). Though we are yet not at our typical 125 Growing Degree
Day (base 50) threshold that we typically look at for spring
frost/freeze concerns...it is worth noting things are running ahead
of normal, perhaps as much as a week or more ahead of normal across
the area... and we are already close to 100 GDDs across our most
sensitive ag area across NW Lower. Think Wednesday night may be the
coldest, with a better shot at high pressure being overhead compared
to Thursday night (potential for a PV max to be in the
vicinity)...but multiple nights of sub-freezing (perhaps mid 20s?)
temperatures look possible going through the latter portion of the
week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Ongoing FG / BR this morning should scour out with time.
Lingering low-level stratus will intrude on MBL and maybe TVC
this morning before that too scours out. Result will be a
transition from the ongoing varying MVFR to LIFR to primarily
VFR by afternoon as CIGs constitute of some high cloud overhead.
Light SE winds prevail 10kts or less. Just some high cloud
carrying into tonight... trends are bearish on additional BR /
FG development tonight as SE winds fail to decouple and even
increase later tonight.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD