Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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935 FXUS63 KAPX 230445 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light rain showers continue overnight. - Lingering lake effect rain (with a few snow showers) on Saturday. - Rain and snow early next week. - Colder temperatures from Tuesday on with periodic lake effect snow chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Low level cyclonic flow lingers across the Western Great Lakes region along the back side of departing low pressure now centered along the Atlantic Coast. Back edge of synoptic moisture is just clipping our eastern CWA...producing a ribbon of lake enhanced rain showers impacting our Lake Huron shoreline areas. Lake effect rain showers continue to stream into portions of Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan...mainly along and west of US-131. No snow is mixing in with the rain as temps hover in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Residual synoptic support and moisture will shift east of our CWA overnight...but lake effect rain showers will continue to stream into areas targeted by N/NW low level flow. Again...do not expect any snow mixing in with the rain given expected overnight lows in the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 206 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis: Occluded / vertically stacked low pressure system over New England will continue to slowly move eastward as longwave troughing slowly moves eastward, being forced by ridging over the Plains. Colder air aloft will remain in place, partially reinforced by a subtle impulse cresting the ridging and becoming more ingested into the flow around the longwave troughing. Result will be a flare up in shower activity for Saturday as winds turn more northwesterly and lake induced showers continue. Forecast Details: Cyclonic flow and stubborn low level moisture, coupled with just enough colder air aloft have been sufficient in generating lake effect convection, with a largely northerly component to the wind. Expectation is that lake effect shower activity carries into tonight, primarily favoring the Grand Traverse Bay region and northeast lower. Orographic lift influences will also continue to provide enough forcing to keep mist / drizzle around across north central lower (in particular, the higher terrain near Gaylord). Once winds turn more northwesterly, expecting the more traditional lake effect regions to have better shower coverage later tonight and through the day Saturday. Given mild temperatures in the mid-to- upper 30s tonight, not anticipating any impacts from snow, and it`s almost safe to say that we will be free of snow tonight. For Saturday, CAM soundings show steepened low level lapse rates, which may be enough to generate some rather beefy lake effect showers, the most potent of which could easily have some graupel mixing in at times. The higher probabilities of this occurring favor the northwest flow belts of NW lower and the eastern Yoop, and perhaps over toward Presque Isle County off of Lake Huron. MaxTs on Saturday range from the lower 40s across the eastern Yoop and the higher terrain of northern lower to the mid-to-upper 40s on the immediate lakeshore locales. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 206 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Period begins with low amplitude ridging over much of the lower 48 states. The ridge axis is forecast move east of the western Great Lakes by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Then, two short wave trofs approach the region to start the work week, the first coming nearly due east off the Pacific Coast, while the second dives southeast out of eastern Canada. These features will partially phase over the western Great Lakes Monday night as an associated surface low crosses the region. A persistent colder northwest flow exists across the region behind the early week system. Forecast Details: Relatively quiet weather is anticipated into Sunday night as upper-level heights rise with the approach/passage of the aforementioned ridge and over-lake instability decreases. Still may be a few spotty showers Saturday evening before the slightly warmer air aloft arrives, but they will be minimal if they occur. Some model guidance suggests showers may develop in the WAA/isentropic ascent regime on the back side of the departing ridge, but moisture appears to be lacking for much precipitation before during the day Monday when better forcing and deeper moisture arrive. Most of the precipitation on the warm side of the Monday/Monday night system should be in the form of rain. Once the early week system departs, colder air and deep northwest flow settle into the region for most of the rest of the forecast period. This setup is conducive for lake effect snow showers from time to time, especially across the favored northwest flow snow belts. While it is too soon to forecast specifics, some snow accumulation is possible during this colder/northwest flow period. This is something that will need to be watched closely during the heavy holiday travel period. Temperatures will be at or below normal through the period which is something we haven`t said much lately. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 NW low level flow light lake effect rain showers will continue to fall across much Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan overnight into Saturday. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR thru Saturday evening...with some improvement to low VFR later Saturday evening and overnight. Surface winds will remain from the NW at 10 to 20 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...PBB AVIATION...MLR