Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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065 FXUS63 KAPX 091944 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 244 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Well defined split flow regime found across NOAM early this afternoon, with north displaced northern stream centered across central Canada...with a much more amplified and energetic southern stream slicing across the Conus. Northern Michigan centered squarely under upper level ridge of that southern stream, maintaining the dry and seasonably mild conditions. Morning sun-filled skies starting to give way to some increasing upper level clouds...the beginning stages of high level moisture advection well ahead of closed upper level low rotating northeast into the central Plains. This low and its attendant weaker surface reflection will continue to work northeast, cutting across the Northwoods later Sunday....returning the threat for some wet weather as it does so. Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature trends and addressing shower evolution tonight through Sunday. Details: Top-down saturation will continue tonight as upstream low pressure works its way northeast...reaching vicinity Iowa by sunrise Sunday. Maturing isentropic upglide within this increasing moisture plume should eventually drive an area of showers...mostly light...from southwest to northeast into the area later tonight. Scattered to numerous showers expected to continue through Sunday as low pressure works right overhead...with perhaps even a bit of a lake component helping shower generation later in the afternoon within post-frontal cold air advection regime. As it looks now, any appreciable instability should remain well to our south, keeping any thunder threat across the Ohio Valley. Definitely not expecting any significant rain totals given lack of deeper convection and what should be gradually decaying deep layer forcing as whole upper level system begins to open up. Seasonably mild stretch of weather will continue...with lows tonight only dropping into the 30s and lower 40s...with highs on Sunday mostly in the lower and middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Progressive pattern continues into the long range. This is expected to result in continued mild temperatures overall as well as periodic chances for precipitation (mainly in the form of rain). No big or long lasting systems expected at this time. Lingering rain showers Sunday evening from the system moving across the region (see above). Perhaps a break in the action overnight Sunday into the start of Monday. Another short wave then quickly follows for Monday afternoon as a deep area of low pressure tracks by to the north. Rain showers once again are expected. However, strong cold air advection late in the day into the evening will lead to gusty winds as well as a possible mix with or change over to snow showers. High pressure then follows for overnight Monday into at least Tuesday night leading to seasonably mild temperatures as well as a break in the precipitation. Another short wave will bring renewed rain chances late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Quiet weather returns for late week and the airmass looks like it will be mild enough to prevent the formation of any lake effect processes. Highs through the period are expected to be between 5 and 10 degrees above averages for the date. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 VFR conditions into this evening with just some increasing high clouds. Moisture depth increases overnight into Sunday, resulting in the likely development of MVFR cigs Sunday morning at the western taf locations. Likely to also see some light non-impactful showers with these lower clouds. No significant wind concerns through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MSB