964
FXUS64 KAMA 312247
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

-Watching thunderstorm chances through Saturday where localized
 flooding due to heavy rainfall will be possible.

-Above average temperatures return next week, with some triple
 digit temperatures expected as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Latest 18Z analysis for the region shows a H500 trough over the SW
TX Panhandle on the periphery of a broad SW CONUS H500 high
pressure system. Under this aforementioned trough axis, decent
6-7 deg C mid level lapse rates with 1000-1500 J/kg and sub 20 kt
effective shear is attempting storm development now in the SW TX
Panhandle. Based off the provided parameters, established
updrafts convection may have a tough time establishing longevity.
However, collapsed cold pools from storms should help to develop
short lived showers and storms, favoring the western Panhandles
through tonight. Additional storms from the NM high terrain may
also reach the far NW Panhandles later this evening and tonight.
Further east across the central and eastern combined Panhandles,
cloud cover should stabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere.
POPs as a result have been diminished in coverage compared to the
NBM for tonights forecast with rain activity ending from west to
east across portions of the area.

Going into the day tomorrow, a similar synoptic set up with a
broad H500 high in the SW CONUS. However, a second H500 trough
should move east over the central and northern Rockies developing
a larger area of thunderstorms for the Colorado Rockies region. If
storms follow the best sfc thermal gradient and H850-700 (+)
theta-e advection regimes. Average model data-sets showing
around 1000 J/kg with 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear. Especially for
the NW Panhandles closer to the storms origin in central CO, our
NW areas could get clipped by a strong storm that move SE by
tomorrow evening with strong to potentially severe wind gusts.
High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Going throughout the long term forecast period, the H500 high will
gradually build in across the Four Corners Region. Besides a small
chance for a shower or storm in the northern Panhandles on
Saturday, dry conditions and very warm temperatures will move
into the region Sunday through most of next week. Especially by
mid next week, some areas in the TX Panhandle may see high
temperatures as high as the 100-105 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Generally VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours.
There is still the exception that a passing rain shower or
thunderstorm will reduce conditions to IFR or less. There is a
very low chance for one of these to impact any terminal for the
rest of today into the overnight hour. Then there will be a
further low chance of these impacting any terminal for Friday
afternoon to evening. The chances of these occurring for both
times is currently to low to be reflected within any of the TAFs.
There is a very low chance that a few of the storm may become
strong and capable of producing strong outflow winds. Otherwise
ambient winds will be fairly weak for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98