726
FXUS64 KAMA 092050
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

- 20 to 40% chance of patchy fog developing across the
  Northwestern Panhandles during overnight period of today and
  Sunday. This could lead to reduce visibility and difficult
  travel.


- Winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
  gusts on Tuesday as a lee-side trough strengthens

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Latest satellite imagery continues see the full exit of the system
from the Panhandles with many models seeing the associated upper-
level trough push towards the Great Lakes. This exit has left the
Panhandle under a weak ridge that is producing zonal flow in the
upper-levels, which should aid in giving us a break in activity
for the next couple of days. Despite the drier weather,
temperatures will stick around the 60s and 50s for the weekend
with slightly colder temperatures expected to hold in areas that
are still covered in snow. Winds will also look to decrease over
the course of the day and likely stay that way clear through
Sunday thanks to weak high pressure present at the surface. One
concern for the overnight periods will be the potential of fog or
very low-cloud deck present across the Panhandles. Currently model
are still seeing decent moisture present over the area, which may
become further saturated with any melted snow in the north. Latest
CAMs soundings do see an environment that could support the
production of either,especially if we get the extra moisture.
Given this, have decided to add patchy fog to the Northwestern
Panhandles for the overnight period.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Model agreement does continue to see the zonal flow hold under the
weak ridge for the start of the new week. This upper-level pattern
should keep the Panhandles dry for Monday but allow for a weak dry
frontal boundary to sneak through. While not much is expect with
passage, the shift back to northerly winds will aid in keeping
temperatures more regulated under these dry conditions. On Tuesday
however, a stronger cold frontal passage is expected to follow.
Once again guidance is not too keen on idea of active weather
being present with this passage with chances holding under 10% at
this time. What is more likely for Tuesday, will be the presence
of breezy to gust winds as model see winds increase both ahead and
behind the frontal passage. Thankfully, the combination of recent
precipitation and still present high RH values will halt fire
weather concerns that afternoon. On the temperature side of the
passage, do look for cooler high temperatures to follow with most
locations in the 50s to low 60s Wednesday. Beyond the passage
model agreement expects a much stronger ridge to build in for the
end of the week and the weekend which should keep the Panhandles
dry with temperature in the south potentially reach into the 70s
by Friday. One thing to watch as we closed out the weekend will be
the possibility of a new system moving in late Sunday into the
following Monday. However, model agreement is too poor to really
have much confidence in anything at this time.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Drier and clear conditions are expected this afternoon and early
evening with the full exit of the upper-level system. Winds will
also slowly lessen at the surface with all terminals dropping to
10kt or less by this evening. One concern is the potential
presence of fog and/or a low-level cloud deck late tonight into
early Sunday morning for the northern Panhandles. Currently models
do show the potential for the set up with any snow melt and recent
rainfall giving us the moisture needed. However, any slight minute
changes to area could keep it from forming. At this time, have
chosen to hold off on any mention in package leaving only current
VFR conditions present.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                34  66  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  32  67  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              26  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  34  68  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              31  64  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  32  67  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               36  67  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 27  60  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  30  68  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                32  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                34  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   35  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                37  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              37  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11