555
FXUS64 KAMA 280545
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
  again for the southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Cooler weather and chances for rain are expected Thursday
  through Friday with the highest rain chances across the western
  and southern Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles today, with minimal
impacts.  The main focus will be the lee surface low that will hold
together in eastern NM and keep very warm dry air across the
southwest Panhandles, while cooler air associated with the surface
high building to the east continues to try to push the front
southwest.  Overall, the front is not projected to move much today
and we`re looking at highs close to 90 in the southwest Panhandle,
and the northeast may not even reach 70.  Fire Weather will be the
main concern today in the southwest as a result of the warm, dry,
and breezy conditions.

Cold front tonight will shift further south and hold over the
Panhandles on Wednesday.  Main result of this will be mild high
temperatures in the 70s with partly cloudy skies.  We do have a
shortwave that is progged to move across the Panhandle tomorrow
evening which could result in showers/storms off the mountains to
move into the northwest Panhandles, and for that do have some pops
added.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Upper level trough will be swinging across the Baja on Thursday,
southwest flow ahead of the trough will transport mid level moisture
to the Panhandles.  This will be the start to the two day event that
favors our best chances at precipitation to the Panhandles. Prior to
the arrival of the trough there is still the back side of the main
upper trough over the Great Lakes region that will keep the
Panhandles under cooler temperatures.  Highs may only get into the
low 60s due to the cooler air in place and ample cloud cover across
the area.  There is a hint as well as to some shower and storms that
may trigger off the Rockies Thursday afternoon and make their way to
the Panhandle in the evening.  As we move into Friday this is where
our rain chances look to peak, as we have the main moisture plume
progged to move across the west Texas area, as well lingering cold
air from that Great Lakes trough, and highs will only be in the 50s,
maybe 40s for some areas.  A fully saturated column of air is
favored for at least the southern Panhandles, where the north is
still in question.  This has the potential to be a good stratiform
rain event for at least the south, as long as the main moisture
plume holds course, but as we`ve seen in the past this can shift
north or south and change things in a big way.  A northerly shift
would add moisture to all aspects of the Panhandles, but right now
the northern Panhandles are at about a 55% chance of staying below a
half an inch of rain for the Thu-Fri event, but the southern
Panhandles still stand at 80-90% chance of exceeding that half an
inch of rain.

By Saturday high pressure will begin to push in from the Four
Corners and there may be some light lingering showers, but at this
point the main precipitation threat will be done, and we`ll begin a
warming trend back into the 60 to low 70s on Saturday, with low 80s
on Sunday and Monday.  There is a chance on Monday that we get some
showers and storms out of the northwest flow for the northern
Panhandles on Monday, but right now only about a 20% chance.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part at all TAF sites
over the next 24 hours. KGUY still looking to have the chance at
some low clouds and maybe even some drizzle and that seems to be
more in the 11-16z. Have gone ahead with LIFR cigs of 500ft agl
and 2SM vis for KGUY during this time. KAMA is showing a brief
period from 09-13z that it may try to get some patchy fog or maybe
a low cig develop, but confidence is still not high, and
currently have have 6SM BR mentioned with a sct cloud deck at
500ft agl. Light and variable winds will be in play through about
15z and then winds will pick up out of the west 10-15kts at KAMA
and KDHT. KGUY is expected to stay mostly out of the east and
northeast around 10kts for the majority of the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Lee surface low will hold in place tonight which will push the front
back to the northeast later today.  As a result we will once again
have critical fire weather across the southwestern Panhandles.
Current Red Flag Warning accounts for where we anticipate the front
to stall and accounts for fairly light winds right along the frontal
boundary.  South and west of the front will be very dry and the
southwestern Panhandles will see the stronger winds mainly 15 to 20
with gusts up to 30 mph, but again RH values down around 6 percent
could result in RFTI`s of 4, if wind over perform 20-25 RFTI`s up to
6 will be possible.  Closer to the front RFTI`s of 0-2 expected as
winds will be much lighter and northeast of the front will have
higher RH values and lower winds, so should only be elevated if at
all.

Tonight front will push back through and a surface high will build
over the Mississippi Valley that will help keep the easterly winds
and higher dewpoints in play, and should end the Fire Weather threat
for possibly the rest of the forecast period, as Thursday-Saturday
still has about a medium chance (40-60%) of being a wetting rain
event, with no Fire Weather signals on Sunday or Monday after the
system moves through.  Should the rain event fail to pan out, it
looks as if the Panhandle will be under cooler temperatures and
higher RH values to help give the fuels a break, and still keep the
Fire Weather concerns in check for the rest of the Forecast period.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ006-011-012-016>018-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89