405
FXUS64 KAMA 230443
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1043 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

-Mild weather conditions with near to above normal high
 temperatures are forecast through Sunday.

-A series of cold fronts drop through the region starting Monday,
 which should cool temperatures down to average or below average
 through much of the week.

-Low chances (15-30 percent) for light rain and/or light snow to
 occur in the middle of the week and possibly Thanksgiving
 morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

An upper level ridge is currently building over the combined OK/TX
Panhandles. This is allowing temperatures to warm into the lower
to mid 60s this afternoon. The ridge will continue to build into
tomorrow and Sunday bringing daytime temperatures into the mid
60s to mid 70s Sat and widespread 70s across the southern TX
Panhandle Sunday. Despite the warming trend, tonight`s lows will
fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s. The northwestern half combined
Panhandles is expected to fall below freezing thanks to calm
winds and clear skies tonight allowing for quite the radiational
cooling overnight under the upper level ridge.

With the winds picking up out of the south to southwest tomorrow
and the warmer air under the ridge, overnight lows going into
Sunday morning should stay quite warm. Temperatures are only
expected to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the
northern FA and mid to upper 40s especially around the HWY 60
corridor as well as into the canyon. Sunday is looking to be the
warmest day with widespread 70s across the FA ahead of a cold
front Sunday night. Palo Duro Canyon may potentially make it to
80 degrees Sunday afternoon. A cold front is expected to move
through the FA late Sunday night into Monday morning dropping
temperatures back below freezing across the OK Panhandle and far
northern TX Panhandle. Central to southern TX Panhandle should
maintain a temperature in the mid to upper 30s going into Monday
morning.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

After Sunday, flow aloft becomes mostly zonal until Wed night
when a shortwave potentially brings some precipitation to the
northwestern third or so of the combined Panhandles. Flow aloft
is expected to then become northwesterly Thu with a return to
quasi- zonal Friday night. The precipitation that may impact the
northern combined Panhandles is expected to start out as rain but
may potentially turn to snow or a rain/snow mix. Outside of this
potential event the long term is looking fairly quiet with a cold
front Wed bringing Thus highs down to slightly below normal.

Despite the shortwave trough expected late Wed, precipitation
signals appear to be mainly post frontal with a very shallow
moisture layer. Total QPF may only be a few hundredths to
potentially a tenth or so of measurable liquid. Right now, areas
across the north are only looking at a 20 to 25 percent chance of
measuring a tenth or greater of liquid Wed night into Thu morning.
With some of that being a dusting of snow across the OK
Panhandle. Overall PoPs have been lowered with the new run of the
NBM basically only highlighting Cimarron County with 15 to 20
PoPs.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

All terminals are expected to stay at VFR levels for the next 24
hours with model agreement continuing to see dry weather across
the Panhandles. Winds are expected to rather light at the surface
for the overnight period but look for KAMA to see speeding
increase heading into tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                34  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  32  64  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              29  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  34  72  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              29  72  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  33  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               36  69  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 28  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  27  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                32  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                36  66  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   36  70  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                34  66  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              34  68  41  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...11