989
FXUS64 KAMA 060641
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
141 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Thunderstorms are favored through at least Sunday across the
  Panhandles. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
  almost every day across portions of the Panhandles.

- Flooding and flash flooding will be possible almost every day
  due to the antecedent wet soil and overall moist environment
  which leads to heavy rain with any thunderstorm.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Bottom Line: Today is almost a repeat day for during the late
afternoon, more likely the evening, to the overnight hours will
have rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms that can cause:
large hail, damaging winds, flooding, and tornados. The morning
convection and low level cloud decks this morning will have a
moderate chance of tampering down the expected afternoon to
overnight convection.

A weather system continues to move across the southern plains
causing active weather for the panhandles. This morning this
system is causing a large line of thunderstorms across the
northern and central panhandles. As the morning progresses this
area of precipitation will diminish and become isolated rain
showers and thunderstorms. It wont be until the later mid morning
hours that the showers should finally come to an end. These
morning showers will impact the later afternoon and evening
thunderstorms by both consuming some environmental energy and
delaying the regeneration of that same energy until the late
morning. This is very much similar to what occurred yesterday on
Thursday when the morning convection prevented thunderstorm
formation to the evening. However is we are able to clear out the
cloud deck early then it would allow for more extensive
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. As it stands right
now there is most likely going to be 1000-2000 j/kg across the
panhandles during the afternoon through the evening. The
environmental rotation remains at 40 to 60 kt across the
panhandles during this time as well. This will allow discrete
thunderstorms to form that will quickly spin up to supercells.
These storms will pose an all hazard event being capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornados. This is very
much what occurred on Thursday that saw several large tornados
form. However just like Thursday such storms are more likely to
both the south and north of the panhandles compared to the
panhandles. Very high moisture with PW at 1.5-2 inches across the
panhandles will allow any rain shower or thunderstorm that form to
produce very heavy rainfall. Intense rainfall can lead directly
to flash flooding or multiple rounds of rain can lead to flooding.
An important item to note is that the panhandles has already seen
rain so this will lower the thresholds needed to cause flooding
as the ground is already wet. Any discrete activity that manages
to form will persist into the evening hours before finally abating
somewhat. However, the northern and central panhandles will have
a high chance of seeing a line of thunderstorms move in during the
late evening. These storms will still have favorable environment
in the panhandles thus will also poses an all hazard threat. As
this line looks to be fairly slow moving with storms consistently
hitting the same area flooding threat may be the highest during
this time. As this is during the overnight hours any flooding that
occurs will be more dangerous as it will be hard to see. This
line finally picks up speed and departs toward the SE during the
mid morning of Saturday. Effectively this once again represent a
repeat of this morning with the line of thunderstorms that passed
across the panhandles.

Saturday kicks off with active weather over the eastern panhandles
that will persist into the mid morning hours. Then during the mid
morning to late morning this activity comes to an end. The low
level cloud deck then will scatter out through the rest of the
morning leading to sunnier conditions. After several days of
active thunderstorms the atmosphere will most likely need time to
regenerate instability. This will make it so that there is only a
low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
shear is also weak across the panhandles so even if a storm
manages to form it has a very low chance of becoming strong to
severe.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Going into Sunday and through Wednesday, a seasonably impressive
upper- level trough will dip into the Upper Midwest and move into
the Great Lakes region resulting in northwesterly flow aloft for
the Panhandles. This pattern favors convection developing in
southeastern Colorado that moves through the Panhandles. Will have
to keep an eye on moisture quality from day-to-day as well as the
ability to recover from any overnight convection. But the streak
of active weather looks to continue into well into the long-term
period. The dynamics are already looking favorable on Sunday for
at least a low chance for severe weather across large portions of
the panhandles. For next work week to much uncertainty creeps
into the forecast to say for sure that severe weather will remain
a threat. Given that we are still in early July with large scale
weather support we cannot rule out Severe weather.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles causing the
morning rain showers and thunderstorms. These storms have the
highest chance of impacting KDHT and KGUY for the next few hours.
Then the rain showers and thunderstorms diminish and then cease
towards the mid morning hours. Around these showers and
thunderstorms a low level cloud deck is present that is causing
mainly IFR conditions. This deck has a low to moderate chance of
lifting during the late morning to afternoon hours which will make
conditions more MVFR to marginally VFR. There is a low chance that
strong to severe thunderstorms form during the late afternoon
although the chances of these impacting any terminal is not high
enough to reflect in the TAFs. Then during the evening hours a
squall line of thunderstorms has a high chance of moving across
the northern panhandles most likely impacting KDHT and KGUY.
During the evening the low level cloud deck thickens and lowers
back to IFR for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  62  86  61 /  20  60   0  20
Beaver OK                  77  59  84  60 /  10  80  10  10
Boise City OK              76  55  83  57 /  10  60   0  10
Borger TX                  84  62  88  63 /  10  70  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              83  61  87  61 /  10  60   0  20
Canyon TX                  83  60  87  60 /  20  60   0  20
Clarendon TX               84  63  86  63 /  30  60  10  20
Dalhart TX                 80  56  83  57 /  10  50   0  10
Guymon OK                  76  57  84  58 /   0  70  10  10
Hereford TX                84  60  88  61 /  30  50   0  20
Lipscomb TX                80  61  84  62 /  20  80  10  10
Pampa TX                   80  61  84  62 /  20  70  10  20
Shamrock TX                84  63  87  63 /  20  60  10  20
Wellington TX              87  65  90  65 /  20  60  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ004-005-009-010.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98