729
FXUS64 KAMA 212328
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
528 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- High chance (>60%) for at least moderate winter impacts with a
  20-40% chance of major impacts starting Friday afternoon through
  Sunday, with snow covered roads becoming impassable in hardest
  hit areas.

- Long duration cold event with sub-zero wind chills starting late
  Friday through early Sunday. Max temperatures are expected to
  stay below freezing Friday through at least Sunday, but there is
  a 10-20% chance that highs don`t get above freezing until
  Wednesday (especially if higher snowfall totals are realized).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Based on current GOES water vapor imagery the combined Panhandles
are currently under northwest flow aloft due to a large upper level
trough. Off to the west is a cutoff low sitting off the coast of CA.
This low is progged to dip south and position off the coast of
the Baja Peninsula early Friday. Northwesterly flow aloft is
progged to transition to more westerly by Friday morning as well,
aiding in Pacific moisture being brought into the are. Until then
the rest of today and tomorrow is expected to be dry and benign
with highs in the 50s.

Thursday night southerly winds will whip around counter-clock wise
to the north to northeast. The first signs of a cold front. The real
cold front with colder temperatures and increased winds is not
expected to show up until early in the day on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A cutoff upper level low off the coast of Baja is progged to
eventually get absorbed back into the main flow going into Friday
night/Saturday. Thanks to the cutoff low being over the eastern
Pacific, the FA is seeing a setup that helps bring in a supply of
Pacific moisture to combined Panhandles. The strength of the CAA
at the surface is expected to interact with warmer moist air aloft
creating some nice isentropic lift for expected precipitation
Friday into Saturday night. Forcing for aloft will also be
achieved with jet dynamics and PVA from the low to the southwest
and trough to the northwest.

With the main front and temperatures tanking on Friday some light
precipitation may be seen Friday afternoon. However, the main
forcing and moisture for the best dendritic growth is expected
more so on Saturday. During the early morning hours Saturday a
warm nose may be present and cause some sleet across the southern
CWA. The NAM is the main model showing decent column of warmer air
around H7, with temperatures near 0 degrees C. This may help some
melting and refreezing for sleet to potentially impact the
southern TX Panhandle just before and around sunrise Saturday.

Going into probabilities, the NBM50th is still giving quite the
swath of snow, around 8 to 10 inches, over the HWY 60 corridor by
Sunday morning. There is expected to be breaks with the snow
within this 36 hour period staring Friday evening and ending
around sunrise Sunday. Some light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning with Saturday
and Saturday evening potentially seeing the heaviest snow and
picking up an additional 5 inches for that HWY 60 corridor.
Amarillo, along with areas within the I-40 and HWY 60 corridor do
currently have a 40-60% chance of achieving accumulations around
12" or more by the time this event wraps up early Sunday.

Starting Thursday night, with the cold front Friday, almost the
entire combined Panhandles are expected to stay below freezing until
Tuesday. Some isolated areas in the northwest may get above freezing
Monday afternoon, but the majority of the area will not, until
Tuesday. Sat, Sun, and Mon morning lows are expected to be in the
low single digits. During these morning wind chill values are
expected to be in the negatives with some potential Cold Weather
headlines needed early Sat when some areas may see wind chills as
low as minus 15 to minus 20. Potential snowpack will play a role in
afternoon temperatures Mon and Tue, and is why the northwest is
expected to be warmer than the rest of the combined Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with light winds in the 5 to 10 kt range and mostly clear
skies that will give way to broken high clouds. Winds for the most
part will be out of the south until about 15-18z and then will
start to turn more northerly. KAMA is the exception, as winds will
stay southerly for the entire TAF period.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for TXZ001>020-317.

     Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     morning for TXZ003>005-008>010-012>020-317.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for OKZ002-003.

     Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     morning for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...89