479
FXUS61 KALY 251145
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Cold Weather Advisory has been canceled for the southern
Adirondacks as temperatures have warm above the criteria.

Snow amounts have been slightly increased since yesterdays
forecast with a slightly northward shift in the storm track and
heavy snow shield. A widespread 1 to 2 feet of snow is
forecasted across eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant winter storm will bring a widespread heavy
snowfall today into Monday with major travel impacts and
considerable disruptions to daily life.

2) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill
values expected through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:

A blockbuster snowstorm is setting up for eastern NY and western
New England. A major winter storm is impacting a large portion
of the lower 48, east of the Rockies with over 3 dozen states
impacted. Low pressure is organizing over the Lower MS River
Valley and the Deep South. Arctic high pressure /~1040 hPa/ is
over upstate NY and New England. An inverted sfc trough will be
extending northeast from the TN and Ohio Valleys late this
morning. Plenty of frigid air will be in place, as moisture from
the Gulf streams north/northeast ahead of this inverted sfc
trough, which will focus the initial surge of snowfall. The snow
will tend to move in from the Capital Region south and west
between 7 am and 10 am...and then north of the Capital Region 10
am to 1 pm. The primary sfc low will move toward WV and PA
during the day with a secondary cyclone forming near the
Delmarva Region. Strong isentropic lift will occur ahead of the
double barrel system with the coastal low taking control in the
late afternoon into the evening.

The strong QG lift will occur near the right entrance region of
a mid and upper level jet streak. PWATs will rise a 1-2+ STDEVs
above normal with anomalous integrated water vapor transport
values of 2-4 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. As
the coastal low takes control, in the late pm, an anomalous
H850 low-level jet will tap Atlantic moisture with u-wind
anomalies /easterlies/ of -2 to -4 STDEVs above normal impacting
much of eastern NY and western New England between 00Z/7 pm and
06Z/1 am. The heaviest snowfall will likely be between 17Z/noon
today and 06Z/1 am. A dry slot may impinge on areas south and
east of the Capital Region close to the I-84 corridor. We did
add some sleet due to a weak warm nose aloft near this area in
the mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County, which is
based on the NAM and NBM. Most of the region should hold as
snow. The 3-km NAM has shift northward the heaviest snow, though
the 3-km HRRR/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS are the heaviest from the Capital
Region, northern Catskills and southern VT south and east.

As the coastal low moves towards coastal NJ and Long Island
this late afternoon/tonight we are expecting the heavy snow
strongly forced due to strong upper dynamics and enhanced
H850-700 FGEN will likely evolve into laterally translating
mesoscale heavy snow band based on the CSTAR research with
UAlbany. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be common, but beneath
this laterally translating snowband some areas could see 2-4"/hr
for a few hours! The band may evolve into a quasi-stationay
band in the night time period. The exact placement is tricky,
but our greatest confidence is for the band to impact the
eastern Catskills, Greater Capital Region, north-central
Taconics, Berkshires, portions of the Lake George Region
Saratoga Region into southern VT. Snow to liquid ratios will be
high in the 15-20:1 range, though they may lower close to 12:1
near I-84 tonight. A fluffier and dry snow is expected...which
will pile up fast with temps in the single digits and lower
teens. Some below zero readings will be common over the southern
Adirondacks. Good pcpn efficiency is expected with the DGZ a
bit high, but the strong QG lift/omega should intersect it beneath
the snowband.

Total QPF has increased to 1-1.5" over the forecast area with
the totals closer to 1.5" over the eastern Catskills, and
Berkshires. The strong upslope flow should cause some jackpot
snow totals over the mtns (eastern Catskills, Berkshires and
southern Greens) in the 20-30" range when all is said and done
Mon early evening. Based on collab with WPC, neighboring WFOs,
the mesoscale snowband threat and the uptick in QPF, we have
increased the totals over a large portion of the forecast area
with moderate-high confidence in a blockbuster storm for Albany
(a blockbuster is usually >18"). In fact, Albany could easily
break into the Top 10 for Jan storms all-time (records going
back to 1885). The current #10 snowstorm occurred on Jan 19-20,
2019 when 13.9" of snow fell. The top snowstorm in Jan occurred
on Jan 15-16, 1983 with 24.5". This is expected to be the
biggest and most widespread storm since March 13-14 2023 (10.1"
fell at Albany) and possibly the biggest since Dec 16-17 2020
(22.9" at Albany)...which sits at number 8 all-time! Please see
the climate section below for more details. We are expecting
about 16-22" in the Greater Capital Region. For Albany, for the
entire storm including the additional snowfall Mon morning into
Monday night 21" is forecasted. This would put us in the Top 3
all-time in Jan. Again, a slight shift in track will cause
lower totals, as well as the dry slot shutting the snow down.
A widespread 14-24" is forecasted (since an additional
3-6"/4-8" or so will occur Mon during the latest morning into
the afternoon). The latest NBM in the 48-hr period ending 7 pm
Mon indicates probabilities of 70-90% for > 15" of snow for all
of eastern NY and western New England, except portions of the
southern Dacks...which is really impressive!

Winds will not be a factor with northeast/north wind 5-15 mph
with some gusts around 20 mph. The frigid conditions (highs in
the single digits and teens) will allow for snow covered roads,
and very difficult and hazardous travel.

Steady lighter snowfall occurs in the mid and upper level
deformation zone to the coastal low, as it moves northeast of
Cape Cod towards Nova Scotia on Monday. The snow tapers to snow
showers and flurries by nightfall with little additional
snowfall. Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s. Gusty
west to northwest winds will increase Monday night with some
blowing and drifting of snow possible. The winds will be west to
northwest 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph. Lows will fall
back in the 5 below zero to 5 above range.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Below normal temps by 15-20 degrees will be common for much of
the week with a mean mid and upper level trough over the
Northeast. A clipper low will bring some scattered snow showers
mainly west of the Hudson River Valley, as well as some lake
effect snow showers late Tue pm into Tue night. Highs on Tue
will be in the teens and lower 20s.

Wednesday, some lingering lake effect snow showers will be possible
for our western areas in the wake of the clipper system. By
Wednesday afternoon or evening, an upper low with multiple
shortwaves rotating around its periphery will drop into the Great
Lakes and eventually track over our region. This feature looks
fairly moisture-starved, so we aren`t expecting much in the way of
additional showers outside of the typical lake effect areas, but it
will bring another shot of even colder air. As the upper low tracks
near the Atlantic Coast, an are of low pressure is expected to form
and track well out to sea east of our area. However, the pressure
gradient between this developing system and high pressure building
into the northern Plains will result in breezy conditions for our
region. The combination of cold temperatures and winds may lead to
the need for additional cold weather advisory issuance, especially
Wednesday night when temperatures for most areas are expected to
drop below 0F again. Below normal temperatures continue into next
weekend, and potentially even beyond with CPC leaning towards below
normal temperatures and precip for days 8-14.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...While flying conditions are VFR at all
terminals as of 6:15 AM EST, snow is overspreading the region from
the S/SW. Snow should begin by 13z at POU, around 14z at ALB/PSF,
and around 15z at GFL. Once snow begins, it quickly becomes
moderate, and eventually heavy by this afternoon. Still expecting a
long period of LIFR to VLIFR conditions through most of this
afternoon through around 03z with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour,
and possibly as high as 3" per hour at times. This will lead to
vsbys at times below 1/4SM. Snowfall intensity begins to diminish
towards midnight, with some marginal improvement for the last 4-6
hrs of the TAF period back to IFR vsbys and IFR to MVFR cigs. Snow
is expected to continue beyond 12z Monday.

Winds increase to 5-10 kt from the northeast today (more easterly at
PSF), peaking this evening before diminishing back closer to 5 kt
and veering more to the north after midnight tonight. Have added
LLWS at PSF this evening with an easterly low-level jet of 45-50 kt
moving overhead. ALB/GFL/POU may approach LLWS criteria, but the
stronger winds here may remain just above 2000 ft so will only
mention here and not in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Top 10 January Snowstorms at Albany, NY (1885 to present)

1. Jan 15-16, 1983 24.5"
2. Jan 3-4, 2003   20.8"
3. Jan 18-20, 1936 17.9"
4. Jan 14-19, 1958 17.6"
   Jan 6-9, 1953   17.6"
6. Jan 6-7, 2002   17.4"
7. Jan 22-23, 1987 16.6"
8. Jan 16-17, 1945 15.8"
9. Jan 13-14, 1964 15.4"
10.Jan 19-20, 2019 13.9"

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15/35
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...15