520
FXUS61 KALY 060527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continues through this evening. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms develop Friday as a cold front stalls overhead.
While temperatures will not be quite as warm, humidity remains
high so storms will be capable of heavy downpours as well. Some
storms, especially in western New England, may becomes severe
producing damaging winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:

 -Scattered thunderstorms possible through daybreak with
  isolated gusty winds and small hail possible. SPC maintains a
  marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) across much of the region.

Discussion:

As of 126 AM EDT...Latest MRMS imagery shows two main clusters
of thunderstorms over the region. One cluster is over
Washington County and is headed into southern VT, while another
batch is impacting the mid Hudson Valley and heading towards the
Taconics. These thunderstorms have been showing weakening
trends in general over the last hour or so, although brief
updrafts have been spiking at times. Radar cross-sections from
KENX suggest some small hail suspended aloft, so it`s possible
of this hail is making it towards the surface. NYS mesonet sites
haven`t had any strong gusts, with any recorded gusts under 30
mph, which makes sense considering the nocturnal cooling that is
ongoing and the limited surface-based instability in place at
this time. Rainfall may briefly fall hard, but intense rainfall
rates will be short-lived and total rainfall will generally be
under an inch, keeping the threat for any flooding through the
overnight to a minimum.

Over the next few hours, showers and thunderstorms will
continue to lift east-northeast, with some additional showers
over central NY heading towards the area, especially for the
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Capital Region. Otherwise, it
will remain muggy through the rest of the overnight hours with
lows in the 60s and a mostly cloudy sky. Some patchy fog may
develop, especially for areas that saw recent rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Thunderstorms on Friday will be capable of becoming locally
  strong to severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. SPC
  maintains is marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 to 5)
  across eastern NY and southern VT with a slight risk (level 2
  to 5) in western MA and Litchfield County, CT.

Discussion:

Our front stalls across the region tomorrow with the conveyor
belt of stronger southwesterly winds ranging 25-35kts overhead.
Once daytime heating kicks in by mid to late morning, showers
and thunderstorms look to develop along the thermal/moisture
gradient positioned northeast to southwest from southern VT,
through the Capital District into the eastern Catskills. As a
few embedded shortwaves within the faster flow aloft track along
the front, guidance continues to show a wave of low pressure
riding along the boundary tomorrow afternoon producing more
widespread areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Given the
increased coverage of precipitation and cloud coverage, overall
instability will be lower near and north/west of Albany.
However, areas from the mid-Hudson Valley into western MA and NW
CT will remain ahead of the front in the more unstable air mass
with the HREF showing 30 - 40% of SBCAPE values exceeding 2000
J/kg and higher 0-6km shear values reaching 20 - 35kts. Forecast
soundings show more of a tall skinny cape sounding with
freezing heights over 10kft and PWAT values around 1.50" so our
primary concern is for potential flooding given the potential
for repeated rounds of convection and rain resulting in poor
drainage/urban flooding or even isolated flash flooding should
storms train over an area. We collaborated with WPC who
considered an upgrade to a slight risk; however, given 3-hrly
HREF probability match mean values only range 0.5 - 1.50" with
isolated values up to 2" and 3-hrly FFG values sit between 2.50
- 3", we sided against an upgrade. We continue to message the
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and will monitor potential
  flooding/hydro issues as convection develops. A secondary
  concern is for storms to become severe with widespread
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across eastern NY with a slight
  risk introduced in western New England where SPC upgraded to a
  slight risk (level 2 of 5) in collaboration with BOX.
  Damaging winds will be the primary hazard from any storms
  especially should isolated bowing segments develop as shear
  vectors remain oriented parallel to the boundary supporting
  more of a linear storm mode. Otherwise, not nearly as hot
  tomorrow with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80 but dew
  points uncomfortable in the 60s maintaining muggy conditions.


Areas of rain continues into the evening as waves of low
pressure ride along and lift the boundary slightly northward. We
maintained likely POPs (50 - 60% chance) overnight along the
stalled front with dew points staying elevating supporting
muggy conditions.

The front gradually slides into western New England Saturday as
an upper level trough in southern Canada pushes eastward.
Additional areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible
along the front again once we reach peak heating but as the
front shift eastward, the shower/storms will shift along with
it. SPC only has our area in "general thunder" as SB CAPE values
along and ahead of the front remain around 1000 J/kg.
Therefore, we trend likely POPs east through the day into
western New England with POPs trending downwards in eastern NY.
As winds shift to the west in the wake of the front, westerly
winds will advect in a drier air mass with winds even turning
slightly breezy as high pressure builds eastward. This will bring
much more comfortable conditions through the day as skies clear
and humidity values fall. It will be much more comfortable
Saturday night thanks to clearing skies and lowering humidity
values with overnight lows falling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very nice end to the weekend is in store for us on Sunday as
high pressure and dry air mass take control of the Northeast
with high temperatures in the 70s and comfortable humidity
values. Clouds increase Sunday night into Monday as our front
from Saturday lifts northward as a warm front. Guidance has
trended drier for Sun night through Monday and suggest most
showers remain mainly north/west of the Capital District as our
high builds into northern New England and keeps a hold over the
rest of the area. Otherwise, we remain comfortable on Monday in
the 70s as the true warmer and more humid air mass stays to our
south. However, this does not last long and the sfc warm front
finally lifts northward Monday night with deeper southwest flow
ensuing by Tuesday. This will ushering in higher humidity values
with chances for shower/storms also increasing as a more
amplified upper level trough tracks through southern Canada and
a cold front approaches from the west. Shear values will
increase so will need to monitor the potential for organized
convection depending on how strong instability values become. We
then trend drier Wednesday into Thursday as the trough pushes
through and subsidence in its wake builds into the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 1AM EDT, although
scattered showers and thunderstorms should track just south of GFL
over the next hour or so. A cluster of weakening thunderstorms may
impact PSF within the first hour or two of the TAF period. Light
showers at ALB diminish within the first few hours of the TAF
period. Showers and storms should remain north of POU. Brief MVFR
vsbys possible with any showers. Showers dissipate by 08-09z, with
mainly VFR conditions through early this afternoon. Can`t rule out a
few pockets of fog/mist for an hour or two around sunrise this
morning for areas that see/saw showers overnight, but confidence is
too low to include in the TAFs.

Then, this afternoon, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Have included prob30 groups from mid-afternoon
through around 00z. Showers and storms should diminish after sunset.
Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of any showers/storms, but
IFR vsby restrictions possible within any thunderstorms or heavier
showers. Will once again have to monitor potential for fog/mist/low
stratus tomorrow night for any areas that see appreciable rainfall
in the evening. Winds will generally be at around 5 kt from the N/NW
at ALB/GFL through the remainder of the night and today, and become
S/SW at POU/PSF this afternoon at around 5 kt. Winds become light
and variable at all terminals after sunset tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Main