117
FXAK69 PAFG 202334
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKST Tue Jan 20 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Fairly quiet weather continues for northern Alaska over the next few
days. However, the West Coast may have a wintry mix tonight, while
the North Slope may have a couple of system bringing breezy winds
and snow. Most of the areas will continue to observe above average
temperatures through the end of the work week, with seasonal
temperatures likely this weekend. As we move into early next week,
an upper trough descends and brings a short-lived cold snap with
temperatures returning to below zero and potentially as low as -30
in the Eastern Interior. By mid-week next week, we start to warm up
again to seasonal and slightly above average temperatures.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well above normal temperatures continue with highs ranging from
  the single digits to the low 20s above zero. Coldest spots
  remain in the valleys due to strong inversions, and warmer at
  higher elevations.

- Fog and low stratus persist in the interior valleys.

- A short-lived cold snap returns late this weekend into early
  next week with temperatures dropping well below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread above average high temperatures persist ranging from
  the 20s to low 30s for the next several days.

- Mainly dry, but a few snow showers and potentially some
  freezing drizzle along south-facing slopes Tuesday night into
  Wednesday, especially around Nome.

- More widespread precipitation moves into the West Coast
  Thursday into Friday. Rain may mix in at times with temperatures
  rising to above freezing.

- A short-lived cold snap returns late this weekend into early
  next week with temperatures dropping to around or below zero.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Easterly winds slowly decrease this evening and overnight along
  the Arctic coast. Visibility may remain low at times due to
  blowing snow until the winds subside.

- Warm trend through the week with highs ranging from the teens
  to lower 30s.

- More widespread snow expected Thursday through Saturday for the
  North Slope and portions of the western Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show a high amplitude
upper level ridge over Alaska, and a closed low over the Bering Sea
moving towards Siberia. This low is bringing a wintry mix to the
coastal areas of the Yukon Delta this afternoon through tomorrow
morning, as temperatures warm up to the low 30s and possibly up to
35F during peak heating hours. The best chances for a wintry mix is
still around the Nome area with up to 30% probability, but other
areas around have mostly a 5-10% chance. Otherwise, the main precip
type should be snow. Meanwhile, gusty winds and periods of blowing
snow continue this afternoon over the North Slope. The pressure
gradient slowly relaxes this evening and overnight leading to a
decrease in the strength of the winds.
Otherwise, most of the area will continue to benefit from well above
normal temperatures. However, periods of low clouds and fog may
affect the lower valleys of the interior.

The upper low over Siberia takes a more east-northeasterly track on
Wednesday and moves towards the Chukchi Sea. This system will mainly
affect the Brooks Range and the North Slope as it brings initially a
period of rain/wintry mix due to the warm air it has been advecting
ahead of it, then followed by snow. The western areas will be
impacted on Thursday, then the eastern areas by Thursday night into
Friday. There is potential for blowing snow with winds from the west
and southwest, and some decent accumulations in northeast Alaska
east of the Dalton Highway from the crest of the Brooks Range to
Kaktovik, which could bring some impacts to the region, mainly
visibility reductions and well, more snow.

The passage of this system will start to break up the upper level
high over Alaska. Therefore, temperatures will be slowly decreasing
late this week, especially in the Eastern Interior and over the
North Slope. Seasonal temperatures are expected late this week and
early this weekend as the high slowly breaks down with the descent
of a deep upper trough from the Arctic Ocean.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

The upper level trough previously mentioned will continue its
southward trajectory into the Yukon and Northwest Territories on
Sunday before retrograding into Alaska. The models have had
agreement on the development of this system, but the timing and
placement has been a bit iffy based on the last several runs. Its
plunge into the Eastern Interior and the North Slope will lead to
temperatures dropping back to below zero with these areas most
likely experiencing temperatures in the range of -10 to -30F. Areas
to the west will cool down too, but not as much as the air is
modified closer to the West Coast with temperatures likely dropping
to around 0 to -15F. There are still a few days to go before that
system reaches us, and there is still a decent spread for likely
temperatures of about 10 degrees. So, stay tuned over the next few
days until we get more consistency.

This cold snap appears to be quick as as another ridge intrudes the
region. However, there is plenty of uncertainty with every ensemble
member of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC giving different scenarios. The
observable trend at the moment for the middle of next week is a slow
warm up trend with very low chances of precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$