897
FXAK69 PAFG 312037
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1237 PM AKDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier weather is inbound as a high develops over
Northern Alaska. Summer-like temperatures will be around through
the weekend with chances for showers and storms, mostly in the SE
Interior and Alaska Range, though a sporadic shower is possible
in the White Mountains and higher terrain of the Interior. North
Slope will be warming up and gradually losing the fog/stratus as
offshore flow dominates.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry and warm weather with plenty of sunshine through this
  weekend.

- A few showers remain in the Eastern Interior today with some
  embedded thunderstorms likely, especially in the SE Interior.

- Similar story tomorrow, but storm chance extends to AK Range.

- Scattered to numerous showers on Saturday in the Eastern
  Interior and Eastern AK Range. 0.25 - 0.50" of rain possible
  (Fairbanks stays mostly dry).

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dense morning coastal and valley fog to 1/4 mile at times Friday
  morning.

- Dry and warmer weather through the weekend with highs 5 to 10
  degrees above normal.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances in the Western AK Range and near
  McGrath tomorrow afternoon, Lower Yukon/Kusko Valley on
  Saturday, Middle Yukon Valley on Sunday.

- Increasing southeast winds with peak gusts to 35 mph and
  isolated showers in the YK Delta Friday into Saturday


North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Clearing skies along the coast as offshore flow dominates. There
  may be some stratus or fog returning each night, but the
  afternoons should be nicer and warmer overall.

- Isolated showers in the Brooks Range, but overall it will be a
  warmer and drier weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
High pressure moving in. There will be continued chances for rain,
especially in the SE Interior and Alaska Range each day. Though
the most widespread rain looks to be on Saturday as a front from
the low in the Gulf moves north. This front likely stalls in over
the Fortymile and Eastern AK Range on Saturday, so rain is not
expected in Fairbanks. Otherwise, typical summertime showers are
expected over the higher terrain of the Interior through this
weekend so while it won`t be completely dry, it`ll be drier than
it has been. A low in the Bering will bring gusty southeast winds
and showers to the YK Delta tomorrow through Saturday, but that`s
as impactful as it gets for that area. The North Slope will be
warmer and drier as well, getting away from the stratus and fog
for a little bit.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and drier weather with much of Northern Alaska reaching
the 70s by Saturday. Min RHs will get as low as 30 to 35% in
Interior valleys this weekend. Showers and storms aren`t ruled out
either. Most of the rain will be in the SE Interior and Alaska
Range, especially tomorrow and Saturday. A front on Saturday will
stall over the Fortymile and Eastern Alaska range with the
potential for upwards of 0.50" in the terrain, and 0.10 to 0.25"
in the upper Tanana Valley. Expect typical summertime showers for
the rest of the terrain of Interior Alaska, but thunderstorm
activity will be limited to the SE Interior and Alaska Range today
and tomorrow. Then in the Middle/Lower Yukon Valley this weekend.
Winds will be largely light, but from the Northeast through
Saturday as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns as rivers are cresting today then gradually falling
through the weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Looking towards next week the models are in agreement with the
main features that will move through the area. However, the
biggest uncertainty will be what the arctic trough does as it
moves across the North Slope Monday through Thursday. We could
potentially see multiple fronts associated with this trough as it
moves across the North Slope bringing temperatures below normal as
well as chances for showers. In the Interior a shortwave feature
over Southcentral Alaska will create a triple point low with the
main low pressure in the Bering Sea. This will keep advecting
moisture into the Interior, allowing for a continued showery
pattern into the middle of next week. This would also cool the
Interior down to near normal temperatures by Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Bianco
Dennis - Extended