369
FXAK68 PAFC 191451
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 AM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fairly quiet weather is expected today for inland areas as
systems approach from the southeast and southwest. The main
noticeable change in the weather today will be a slow increase in
northeasterly gap winds such as Thompson Pass, the Mat Valley,
Broad Pass and Mentasta Pass. Kodiak and the Gulf waters will also
see notable increases in wind as the two systems approach.

Starting tonight, a complex interaction between a storm currently
south of the Chain and the other in the southeastern Gulf will
take place. Overall model consensus continues to improve with the
mean storm track expected to be just south of the Alaska Peninsula
this evening and slowly making its way up the Cook Inlet, or just
south of the Kenai Peninsula and into the Interior by Friday
morning. There are still notable timing differences for the
northward progression, as well as a fairly large spread in the
east west position between most of the model guidance and the GFS.
This forecast package is representative of a middle ground
solution as far as the east and west track, but is on the faster
end of guidance for the northern progression.

The fronts from both systems will converge on the Southcentral
coasts tonight, leading to a gradual increase in temperatures
across the region, many of which will be in the mid to upper 30s
by sunrise on Thursday. Aloft, temperatures will also warm
considerably, rising snow levels to around 2000 ft for the coastal
mountain ranges. Inland areas should remain downsloped due to the
very strong southeast winds, though sprinkles to very light rain
may make it over at times. By late Thursday is where things get
tricky. The low is expected to move north, but the timing remains
uncertain. As it moves north, much colder air aloft may swing in
from the southwest, bringing a quick shot of rain transitioning to
snow to much of the Cook Inlet region. The fastest solution has
this happening Thursday evening, which is reflected in this
forecast package, but the overall consensus is sometime Friday
morning. There`s still a lot to work out in the forecast, so stay
tuned for more details.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

Today`s chapter of the Southwest Alaska, Bering Sea, Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN), and Aleutian Chain starts with two lows in the
Bering Sea; one in the western Bering and one in the eastern
Bering. The low in the western Bering will deliver gusty winds and
showery conditions across the Western and Central Aleutians today.
This low will usher in a colder airmass across the Bering as it
dives southward into the North Pacific by then.

The low in the eastern Bering, currently just north of the
Pribilof Islands, will continue north to between St. Matthew and
St. Lawrence Islands by tonight. Its front will move into the
mainland Southwest coast through today. Initial snow over Nunivak
Island and Nelson Island will turn to rain/snow mix as the morning
progresses with warmer air working in with the gusty southeasterly
winds. Snow accumulations across Nunivak Island and Nelson look to
be light this morning before rain mixes in. Bethel will stay
mostly dry due to strong southeasterly downsloping off the
Kuskokwim Mountains. However, scattered rain and or rain/snow mix
showers could make it over the mountains this afternoon as flow
will turn more southerly.

A North Pacific low, currently between and south of the Central
Aleutians and Eastern Aleutians, continues gaining strength today.
This low will make it to near the southern AKPEN by this evening
and will deliver strong gusty southeasterly winds through the
AKPEN and into southern Bristol Bay. Gusts in the near coast zones
south of Kodiak Island will be around 55 kts tonight and same for
southern Bristol Bay. Of more concern is how this low and
associated upper-level shortwave will interact with the shortwave
currently responsible for the active weather across the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast and Kuskokwim Delta this morning. In addition to
strong gusty winds along the southern AKPEN, heavy rain is likely
starting this afternoon and lasting into tonight. The heaviest
rain corridor looks to be between southern Kodiak Island and Sand
Point, which includes Perryville and Chignik.

A band of moderate to heavy precipitation will setup along the
western Bristol Bay Coast, from the Western Capes to Togiak,
later this morning with the front of the eastern Bering low moving
in. Most precipitation this morning is expected to be rain. As the
North Pacific low moves to the southern AKPEN tonight winds shift
from southeast to east or even east-northeast. Precipitation along
the Bristol Bay Coast and into Inland Bristol Bay becomes moderate
to heavy at times. Due to intense precipitation rates, cold air
aloft looks to be brought down to the surface. Therefore, rain
today will eventually change over to wet snow this evening across
the Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay. Snow may fall
heavily at times tonight. Temperatures will be near freezing
tonight through Thursday. With that said, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the Bristol Bay Coast, including
Dillingham and Togiak, as well as Inland Bristol Bay, including
Koliganek, New Stuyahok, and Aleknagik from 6PM this evening to
6PM Thursday evening. 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected with
locally higher amounts possible, especially along the Ahklun
Mountains. With the antecedent airmass being marginal when it
comes to cold air, precipitation rates will be vital to the
forecast. There is potential for more snow accumulation if heavier
bands set up and persist. However, and conversely, if
precipitation does not fall too heavily, the warmer air could win
out with rain mixing which would lower snow totals. The forecast
and the products reflect a middle ground.

Cold air moves back in across Southwest behind this low on Friday.
Winds will be northerly along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast with snow
showers moving across Nelson Island and Nunivak Island from the
Bering. Blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible Friday
along the mainland coast, and the AKPEN. Another front and low
approaches the Western Aleutians for Saturday as snow showers
continue along the AKPEN. Snow showers across Southwest for
Saturday will remain mostly confined to the mountain ranges. Stay
tuned for further forecast updates, especially regarding the
evolution of the North Pacific set to impact Southwest tonight and
Thursday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Only minor changes from previous discussion. Forecast confidence
remains generally low as the weekend starts and into early next
week. Generally expect stormy weather as a low impacts Southern
Alaska on Friday, followed by a brief break before the next storm
moves into the Bering Sea from the west.

Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. A robust shortwave
curving up from the North Pacific will spur the development of a
surface low near the Alaska Peninsula. However, model solutions
remain very divergent, which makes forecast details and potential
impacts difficult to pinpoint. Among the deterministic solutions,
low tracks range from the low curving up the Southwest Alaska
coastline, to the low moving onshore in Bristol Bay, to the low
curving up the Gulf coast towards Prince William Sound. Given the
strength of this low (minimum MSLP as low as 970-980 mb), gales
are possible, with sustained storm force winds likely. All told,
this will be a potentially impactful storm, and one to watch as
forecast confidence gradually improves.

As the aforementioned low gradually weakens and exits out of the
Southern Mainland, a ridge will move in, followed by the front
from a strong low that moves in by late Saturday. Winds to storm
force are possible with this front, impacting the Western and
Central Bering/Aleutians. As the front approaches the Mainland by
Monday and Tuesday, secondary lows developing along the front will
lead to stormy weather along the Bering Sea, though uncertainty
with low tracks will once again lead to difficulty pinpointing
exact details. Overall, a low-confidence long-term forecast.

KC/DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Generally VFR ceilings will prevail. However, low stratus
and fog is likely this morning and may drop conditions to IFR for
a time. The low stratus and fog is expected to clear out by the
late morning. A strong front will push into the coast tonight, but
downsloping should keep the area dry and VFR. Northerly winds
will also increase through the TAF period as a low pressure system
approaches the Alaska Peninsula this evening and the southern
Inlet by Thursday morning. Wind shear is not expected at this time
due to the strong down- inlet winds, but strong southeasterly
winds are expected above 3000 to 4000 ft.

&&


$$