110
FXAK68 PAFC 040247
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 PM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Key Points:

* Transitioning from a warmer, freezing rain weather pattern to a
  snowier, colder one.

* Southern Copper River Basin will likely see several days of
  light snow from late this week into the weekend, leading to
  overall accumulations on the order of 6-12 inches.

* By Friday, increasing offshore winds will lead to frigid wind
  chills (especially near the Alaska Range) and the potential for
  blowing snow.

Discussion:

The Winter Weather Advisories for freezing rain in Northwest Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage/Eagle River have since expired as
precipitation has tapered off. One thing to watch for will be the
potential for another brief period of freezing rain along Central
Kenai Peninsula tomorrow morning, before the influx of colder air
changes precipitation over to snow.

Otherwise, we`ll be turning the corner from near-freezing
temperatures and freezing rain, to drier and more frigid
conditions. One forecast challenge will be how much snow we`ll see
tomorrow, before the much drier and colder air moves in. A robust
upper-level shortwave moving into the north Gulf coast could
bring light accumulations to parts of Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage,
and Matanuska Valley, with higher amounts along Prince William
Sound and the Copper River Basin. This is what`s represented in
the forecast. However, the NAM has been stubbornly holding onto a
much drier solution, with little snow expected for tomorrow. This
model solution remains the outlier, but it hints at the potential
for a much drier scenario than currently forecast.

Looking ahead to Friday, a low pressure system moving across the
Gulf towards Southcentral Alaska will tighten surface pressure
gradients and bring another round of snow to Prince William Sound
and Southern Copper River Basin. Forecast confidence is high that
temperatures will be very cold, with minimum temperatures dropping
into the teens and single digits by Friday night, with even colder
temperatures on the way this weekend. While this type of synoptic
weather pattern favors gusty outflow winds, forecast confidence
is a bit lower with the timing and strength of these winds, as
these aspects of the forecast are more reliant on the track of the
low. Depending on the eventual low track and wind speeds, we
could see wind chills dropping into the single digit negatives for
most of the Southcentral Mainland, with wind chills as low as -30
to -40 in the deep interior. An additional hazard will be the
potential for blowing snow and perhaps even blizzard conditions,
which will also depend on the low track and where snow falls
before or during the strongest winds. Overall, even though we`ll
be moving out of our yucky freezing rain pattern, there remain
cold weather hazards on the horizon to watch out for, so stay
tuned to the forecast.

-Chen

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The low over the Aleutians continues to weaken which is allowing
for freezing rain and snow chances to start reducing. However, due
to the continued threat of blowing snow along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and freezing rain showers from Bethel South, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued. Also, snow and gusty winds
continue in the Pribilof Islands, so a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for snow and blowing snow. This impactful weather in
Southwest Alaska should taper off by tomorrow as the low continues
to weaken. By Thursday afternoon, lingering showers will affect
Bristol Bay.

Next up is an Arctic airmass pushing into Southwest Alaska from
the north. Temperatures will plummet into the weekend as an Arctic
trough dives into the region. Temperatures will drop below zero
across the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley by
Friday night. Another effect of the Arctic trough will be an area
of gusty north to northeasterly winds off of the Kuskokwim Delta.
These winds will reach gale to storm force in strength and will
stretch all the way down to the Aleutians. Stronger gap winds in
the Aleutians are likely with these winds. A consequence of these
offshore winds is the threat of extreme freezing spray from
Nunivak Island to Cape Newenham. A Marine Weather Statement has
been issued for Saturday through Tuesday detailing this threat.
Another consequence of the gusty winds and very cold temperatures
is wind chill. Wind chills could dip below 35F in the Kuskokwim
Delta by Saturday night into Sunday. Looking ahead, it seems like
the Arctic air mass will persist into next week, potentially
allowing for a long period of extremely cold temperatures.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad area of low pressure will fill most of the Gulf of Alaska
on Sunday and remain in place through next week. Forecast models
have various differences on when low pressure breaks down and
moves out of the Gulf. To the west, high pressure will persist
over the Bering while a weaker front systems track south of the
Aleutians. As has been advertised, beginning on Friday a
significant outbreak of colder air is forecast to spill out of
Canada and into interior Alaska, eventually reaching the eastern
Bering and Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. Cold temperatures are
expected to remain in place through early next week, with cold air
over the Alaska Peninsula to wrap back into the Gulf of Alaska
Sunday into Wednesday. Strong winds out of the interior are
forecast and there is potential for high winds into Southwest
Alaska. The strong northeasterly flow of colder temperatures atop
warmer Bering Sea waters will also promote ocean effect snow
showers for parts of the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula.
Meanwhile, the denser cold air over Southcentral will increase gap
winds through the usual locations and into the Gulf of Alaska.
With the colder temperatures, areas of snow will be possible for
numerous locations, but nailing down the when and where will
require further analysis of newer model data. The BLUF, it`s going
to be colder; there will be wind through the gaps; and snow
chances will continue to increase through the middle of next week.
Stay tuned.

-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR ceilings this
evening. Flow then weakens further overnight with IFR and LIFR
conditions possible with fog formation. Fog formation will depend
on if there is any clearing early this evening when radiational
cooling can be maximized with shallow dewpoint depressions.

Looking ahead to Thursday, there is uncertainty regarding the
track of a surface low. A more northern track with this system
into Prince William Sound would yield more snow over the terminal
with MVFR to IFR conditions. Conversely, a more south and east low
track would yield less in the way of snow and better chances for
VFR conditions.

&&


$$