147
FXAK68 PAFC 210131
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 )...

Mixed precipitation in the form of rain and freezing rain from
the morning hours has finally tapered off over inland portions of
Southcentral. Latest satellite imagery depicts a low centered over
the Barren Islands between Kodiak and the Kenai Peninsula. Strong
south and southeasterly flow ahead of the low has allowed
temperatures across Southcentral to warm to above freezing for all
but the Copper River Basin where current temperatures range from
the teens into the 20s. Scattered rain showers are ongoing over
the Kenai Peninsula and Gulf Coast, with Homer, Seward, Portage
and Cordova all experiencing at least light precipitation. This
rain will continue through tonight and into the morning hours
while the low skirts the Kenai Peninsula east coast.

Low pressure then tracks just south of the Kenai Peninsula
through tomorrow afternoon, eventually lifting northward and over
far western Prince William Sound. Models deviate on timing of the
low`s track and just how far east the low will move while lifting
into the Gulf coast. Of greater certainty is tonight`s wind
forecast for Kodiak Island. Strong winds and cold air advection on
the backside of the departing low will see westerly winds gusting
up to 50 knots or more through the bays and passes of Marmot Bay
and Chiniak Bay. Gusts through the city of Kodiak will likely
approach 60 mph during the overnight hours tonight before
diminishing through the morning hours on Friday.

Despite the uncertainty, mixed precipitation chances are likely
to return later tonight and on Friday for portions of Southcentral
as low pressure moves into the Sound. The first chance will be
during the morning hours with the low`s northward movement.
Temperatures at the surface will cool somewhat tonight, resulting
in another round of potential freezing rain from the MatSu into
the Anchorage Bowl, and especially for areas along the western
Kenai Peninsula and eastern Turnagain Arm, including Turnagain
Pass and even locations as far south as Homer. Whatever
precipitation does fall should be light, though cannot rule out
black ice developing on some surfaces. A second round of light
precipitation is possible tomorrow afternoon, as what remains of
the low shifts across Cook Inlet as a weak trough. The latter
precipitation chances would likely fall as mostly snow as cooler
temperatures filter in from the north and west. Again,
precipitation amounts should be fairly light, with any
accumulations only ranging from a dusting to perhaps an inch or
two. Highest snowfall accumulations will be from Turnagain Pass to
Portage. Valdez will also experience light snow with a couple of
inches forecast through tomorrow night.

By Saturday, low pressure exits the region, resulting in a break
from unsettled weather. Dry conditions and calmer winds are
forecast Saturday into Sunday.

BL


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday morning)...


Key Messages:

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6PM AKST this evening
  for the Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay.

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 3PM AKST this afternoon
  for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast/Nunivak Island and Interior
  Kuskokwim Delta.

* Gusty northerly winds and snow showers continue for the mainland
  Coast, Interior Kuskokwim Delta, the Central/Eastern Aleutians,
  Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska Peninsula for Friday

Discussion:

An exceptionally strong low pressure system, in the 940s mb,
continues to move northeastward along the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN)
this morning. Dillingham has contended with warmer air thus far
which has allowed for more rain to mix in with the snow. Therefore
snow totals across Dillingham will be lower than forecast. Togiak
and Manokotak continue to see snow this morning. The Winter
Weather Advisory continues through 6PM AKST this evening for the
Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay with snow totals
ranging between 4 and 8 inches. The heaviest snow is still
forecast to fall across the Ahklun Mountains. In addition to the
snow threat across portions of Bristol Bay, a Winter Weather
Advisory also continues for the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta Coast/Nunivak Island through 3PM AKST this afternoon. 3 to 6
inches of storm total snow across those areas continues to be in
the forecast as the band of precipitation affecting portions of
Bristol Bay reaches northward in the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta Coast. The higher-end totals along the coast look to be
south of Kipnuk where the snow band has persisted longest.
Meanwhile, radar has filled in nicely around Bethel as flow aloft
is switching to northeast and away from the downsloping
southeasterly flow, allowing precipitation to make it over the
Kuskokwim Mountains.

Snow showers will linger across mainland Southwest through today
and will continue into Friday as a colder airmass moves in.
Blowing snow with reduced visibility is possible Friday along the
coast, but especially for Nunivak Island and Nelson Island. While
the cold airmass will arrive to the southern AKPEN along with snow
showers Friday, temperatures will only be marginal in the 30s, so
blowing snow should not be too much of a concern there.
Visibility could still be significantly reduced in heavier snow
showers that pass overhead though. The same goes for the Central
and Eastern Aleutians. The Pribilof Islands may be more at risk
for some blowing snow Friday as they will be more in the heart of
the cold airmass.

Snow showers embedded in the northerly flow will become more
confined to to the mountain ranges across mainland Southwest as
snow showers across the Central/Eastern Aleutians, Pribilofs, and
AKPEN taper off with a ridge building into the central Bering Sea.
The core of this ridge moves to the northeast Bering by Sunday
morning with mostly quiet and cold conditions expected across the
majority of the domain.

Behind the northeastward propagating ridge, a North Pacific low
lifts to near the Western Aleutians by Saturday. Its front brings
strong gusty winds, up to storm-force (50 kts) across the Western
Aleutians and the marine areas near the Western Aleutians Saturday
afternoon. These strong gusty southeasterly winds make it to
around Adak by Sunday morning, along with light to moderate rain.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A high amplitude blocking pattern will be building during the
long term forecast period with a ridge of high pressure stretching
from the north slope of Alaska to the southeast Panhandle while
broad low pressure sits over the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. A
surface low spinning up under the upper level trough will most
likely have their storm track shunted north due to the blocking
ridge, bringing Kodiak Island and Southwest Alaska the majority of
weather impacts Tuesday and Wednesday. The eastern Kenai
Peninsula may receive modest precipitation as well, but the
majority of Southcentral see clearer skies with little to no
precipitation. A tight pressure gradient along the north Gulf
coast will more than likely result in gusty gap winds in the usual
spots, such as the Copper River Delta, Thompson Pass, and
Matanuska Valley. Expect colder than average temperatures for
interior locations and warmer than average temperatures for the
Alaska Peninsula and Lower Kuskokwim.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday
morning. A stray freezing sprinkle may make it over the terminal
this afternoon and evening; however, any precipitation will be on
the order of a trace at most. No ice accumulation is expected
through tonight. Winds will remain out of the north at 10 kt or
less. A wintry mix of precipitation is expected to return by mid-
morning Friday. Precipitation may start off as a mix of freezing
rain, sleet, and snow before changing to all snow by late morning
or early afternoon. Freezing rain accumulations are, again,
expected to be very light, with up to a glaze of accumulation.
Snow amounts are expected to be less than an inch. However, there
is some forecast model uncertainty as to how much precipitation
will move over across the Kenai Peninsula and over the terminal
tomorrow. Any steadier precipitation tomorrow morning may drop
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR at times.

&&


$$