103
FXAK68 PAFC 031355
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The broad negatively-tilted upper level trough that has been the
subject of recent discussions can be seen very well on satellite
imagery early this morning as the cloud band that stretches from
Kodiak to eastern Norton Sound. Ahead of this feature, there are
numerous shortwaves embedded in the south-to-southeast flow which
are bringing in scattered snow or rain showers to the region. One
of the stronger waves moved across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
then across Anchorage overnight. Behind this wave there is
generally just disorganized snow showers across the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage and into the Mat-Su. This supports more of a
scattered snow showers regime instead of there being enough to
call the showers numerous in coverage. What is interesting is that
with this upper level trough is that it is not moving a whole lot
for the next few days. This will keep the area from the Kenai
Peninsula to Prince William Sound and areas north in an overall
pattern that supports persistent, but disorganized, rain and snow
showers. However, most of the models show periods of more
organized shower activity in conjunction with any number or weak
shortwaves moving through. the issue is that there is little to
no model agreement on when and where any of these waves will
develop and move. This is not unusual with weak upper level waves
in such a pattern. However, it does keep the door open for a more
organized wave to develop and drop a few inches of surprise snow
over an area. This will generally be the case for the next few
days. Perhaps the biggest change will be a slow cooling trend that
will turn most of the precipitation to all snow showers by
Wednesday across the region including the eastern Kenai Peninsula
and most of Prince William Sound.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

An upper trough now extends from the Bering Strait region out over
Southwest Alaska, with a smaller embedded upper low drifting over
the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. Areas of very slow-moving snow
showers have developed near this small upper low where weak lift
and steep lapse rates in the mid levels are promoting these
patches of convectively enhanced showers. Synoptic lift and weak
deformation out ahead of the main trough axis is also helping
bands of very light snow develop over the interior parts of
Southwest closer to the Alaska Range, including near Sleetmute and
Aniak. Across the Bering Sea, relatively quiet conditions are
prevailing under a ridge axis centered over the western
Bering/Aleutians. A low is also now pulling well south of the
Aleutian Chain into the North Pacific, allowing east to northeast
winds near the southern AKPen and eastern Aleutians to steadily
trend down today.

By this evening, a shortwave trough currently moving over
Kamchatka will head east, sending a developing low and attendant
front into the western Bering Sea. The low will deepen overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning as it continues east, becoming a gale
force low by late tonight. Winds will become most notably strong
and gusty out near the western Aleutians, where a secondary
shortwave will drive through right behind the initial wave
passage right as colder air begins to wrap into the western and
southern side of the surface low. Peak westerly gusts will likely
reach the 50 to 60 mph range across the western Aleutian Chain on
Tuesday as the low passes off to the northeast. Light to moderate
rainfall along the low`s leading front will also push across the
Aleutians from west to east as the parent center skirts to the
north from tonight into Tuesday evening. From Tuesday night into
Wednesday, the low will weaken and dive south into the North
Pacific as a weak ridge moves back over the western Bering,
allowing for a return to calmer conditions and lighter north to
northeast flow by midweek.

Looking back towards Southwest, the upper trough in place will
gradually lift to the northeast over the next couple days,
allowing bands of snow moving out ahead of the trough to also
slowly shift northeast and eventually dissipate along portions of
the western Alaska Range by Tuesday evening. The snow showers over
the Kuskokwim Delta should also begin to wind down by tonight as
the cold air aloft and weak forcing near the embedded upper low
shifts east and as northerly cold advection along the coastline
shuts off. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the 10s to
20s over the next day or two, with wind chills not much lower
while winds remain light through Tuesday night. Breaks in cloud
cover and mostly calm winds will also be conducive to fog
formation, mainly over parts of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta overnight tonight. Northeast winds will begin to pick up by
Wednesday as an offshore gradient develops between the Bering
ridge and a strong low moving south of the Gulf. Generally dry and
cool conditions will also prevail through midweek.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A fairly stagnant weather pattern continues for the long term
forecast period as a blocking upper level ridge over Canada keeps
the mean trough axis over western mainland Alaska. Temperatures
will gradually cool with northerly flow aloft, especially over
Southwest Alaska. Surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska will bring in
rounds of precipitation to Southcentral, but the majority of
accumulation will stay coastal. Gap winds on the backside of the
Gulf lows will increase through the Alaska Peninsula Thursday and
Friday while the rest of Southwest stays relatively quiet.

There are signals of a strong low pressure system sweeping a
front across the Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend.
Enhanced rain and gale to storm force wind gusts are possible as
the front moves over the region, but the exact storm track as it
moves east is uncertain at this time. This is something we will
keep an eye on going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered snow showers this morning then scattered rain
and snow showers this afternoon will be around the airport. While
any of these showers could bring in brief MVFR (or even IFR)
conditions today through Tuesday, for the most part ceilings and
visibility should remain VFR. No significant winds are anticipated
around the terminal through tomorrow.

&&


$$