425
FXAK68 PAFC 090113
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 PM AKDT Fri May 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains in a similar pattern as before, a low moving
into the Gulf of Alaska will interact with an upper low over
Western Alaska. This will lead to cool, cloudy, and rainy weather
across Southcentral this weekend. A barrier jet will form along
the coast near Cordova on Saturday with winds up to gale force in
strength. The barrier jet will dissipate by Sunday when the low
approaches the coast and weakens. Meanwhile, winds for inland
areas are not expected to be gusty expect for the Copper River
Basin, which could have elevated winds from the southeast over the
weekend. As for precipitation, rainfall is expected to increase
tonight as a push of moisture allows for more widespread showers,
including Anchorage and the Mat-Su. A break in rainfall for inland
areas will occur on Saturday afternoon as downsloping sets up.
However, aloft winds weaken on Sunday, allowing for another round
of rainfall. Monday will see a front push in from the west,
allowing for steady rainfall in Kodiak Island and likely gap
winds in the waters surrounding Kodiak Island as well.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3:THis afternoon through Monday)...

An upper level low will continue to dig south across the
Southwest Interior, rotating west and south across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay Region by Saturday morning. This rotation
will occur as a North Pacific low lifts north into the Gulf of
Alaska Saturday, leading to an area of deformation that will
spread precipitation across the Southwest over the course of the
day Saturday. Cold and unstable air within the Southwest low will
invigorate precipitation coverage and intensity over the weekend,
leading to light snow accumulation from Lime Village to Iliamna
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Precipitation will
continue to linger along the interior through Sunday night before
the Southwest low and the deformation band lift north of the
Kuskokwim Delta.

To the west, a frontal boundary over Adak and Atka continues to
decay through Saturday morning, with precipitation tapering off.
Meanwhile a ridge over the northern Bering continues to weaken and
lift north opening the door for a more progressive pattern. By
Sunday morning, a low just south of Kamchatka will progress its
front into the western Bering, spreading precipitation across the
Aleutians west of Unalaska by Saturday evening. This front does
not look too strong, bringing mainly small craft winds and patchy
low-end gales south of Adak and Atka. Moderate rain will accompany
this front at first, becoming light as the rain-shied spreads
over Adak/Atka Sunday and Nikolski/Unalaska Sunday evening.

AB/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast.

The front from an unseasonable Bering low will generate heavy
rainfall over Eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William
Sound on Tuesday. The low progresses eastward to the AK Pen by
Tuesday morning, south of Kodiak Island Wednesday morning, then
reaching the Gulf overnight Wednesday. Periods of wind and rain
will be generated along the path of the low, including the
Northern Gulf Coast.

An upper level low coming out of Kamchatka arrives in the Bering
Sea Thursday morning and dissipates rapidly. A North Pacific low
travels to the south of the Aleutian Islands. There is little
confidence on the strength or exact track of the system.

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...Mostly VFR conditions through this evening, with cloud
ceilings hovering around 5000 ft. Cloud ceiling drop to MVFR by
07Z as rain moves in. IFR ceilings are expected late tonight/early
tomorrow morning (after 13Z) and visibilities drop between 3-5 SM.
Conditions start to improve after 18Z tomorrow morning. Chances
for light rains showers are possible tomorrow morning but overall
mostly drier conditions expected for Saturday.



&&
$$