984
FXAK68 PAFC 061418
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

Key Messages:


* Multiple winter weather hazards remain in effect across a good
  portion of Southcentral Alaska through late tonight or Saturday
  morning as a potent storm system continues to track from the
  North Pacific this morning into Prince William Sound by
  Saturday. Please visit our weather.gov/afc for a complete
  breakdown of winter weather products.


Discussion:

A deepening area of low pressure is rapidly moving northeast
toward Kodiak Island this morning. A warm front attached to this
surface low is lifting into the Western Gulf and is advancing
quickly toward the Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral Gulf coast.
Strong easterly winds have developed across the Gulf with
increasing wind gusts encroaching on the immediate coast.
Locations such as Whittier, Portage, Seldovia, Kenai, and Cordova
are already seeing winds quickly increase this morning. A wide
area of precipitation, falling as snow north of line from Kodiak
City to Middleton Island, is lifting over the Kenai Peninsula.
Snow has been reported from Kenai and Whittier south to Homer and
Seldovia and is quickly accumulating based on FAA and DOT area
webcams.

This system is deepening in response to a positively tilted 500
mb longwave trough digging well southward over the North Pacific,
south of the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.
Downstream of this trough is an area of upper level divergence,
which is helping to deepen this low to about ~970 mb as it moves
into the Western Gulf later this morning. Its warm front will set
up a storm force barrier jet paralleling the Gulf coast as this
frontal system begins to close in on the Gulf coast. A
strengthening cross-barrier flow this morning will help to shut
off the bulk of the snow for areas in the lee of the coastal
mountains, especially from Palmer to Anchorage and Sterling.
However, snow is expected to redevelop later today for these areas
as the front and low continue northward and the winds in the wake
of these features becomes more southerly.

The eastward trend in the track of both the surface and upper-
level lows has maintained with the overnight forecast model runs.
As such, this sets the stage for potential deformation banding
across the Cook Inlet region as the upper low component of this
system and an upper level disturbance to the west causes
stretching and tilting in the atmosphere. Pinpointing exactly
where this banding could setup is a major forecast challenge.
Trended up today for snow totals for the windward slopes of the
eastern Kenai and Chugach mountains due to high QPF and upsloping.
However, the more easterly track meant a downward tick in snow
amounts for areas in the far northern and western Susitna Valley.
Gusty winds are still expected for a time as the low continues to
move north. Thus, any accumulating snow will likely result in
areas of blowing and drifting snow. Many of the more inland Winter
Weather Advisories incorporate the potential for blowing snow and
reduced visibilities.

By later this afternoon, the upper-level wave and surface front
will move inland, resulting in steady snow spilling into the
Copper River Basin. As the precipitation winds down, gusty
southerly winds will develop helping to temporarily drive
temperatures close to freezing for places like Glennallen. Along
the Edgerton Highway, this push of warmer air could result in a
wintry mix of precipitation leading to icy roadways.

The southerly flow behind these features will also advect colder
air from Southwest Alaska. Expect strong southerly wind gusts and
snow showers across Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay this evening
through Saturday, with the potential for another, more
significant, round of snow and winds for areas around Homer. Snow
showers may be further enhanced into Saturday as a second upper-
level wave moves over, with stronger cold air advection and
increased instability. The bigger challenge will be how this
feature interacts with the lingering surface low (now trough) over
Prince William Sound, as well as, yet another digging shortwave
farther upstream, helping to negatively tilt the other wave. If
these feature all interact in a manner as to keep the trough over
Cook Inlet but a southerly flow in the mid-levels, it could result
in the continuation of snow showers for the Anchorage Bowl, Mat
Valley, coastal mountains, and Copper River Basin, leading to
additional snow accumulations.

By late Saturday and Sunday, colder air will stream in from
Western Alaska with gusty gap winds developing and temperatures
falling back well below average for this time of year.


-TM/AM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Sunday)...

Southwest Alaska will see a break in the dry and frigid
conditions as a strong low pressure system has pushed into the
Alaska Peninsula. This low pressure system is bringing snow and
strong winds across the Alaska Peninsula, leading to blowing snow
and blizzard conditions in some areas. The area of heaviest
snowfall this morning is currently over the northern Alaska
Peninsula, and is expected to shift northeastward into the Bristol
Bay region. Please visit our website for more information on the
relevant Warnings/Advisories for your area. Following the passage
of heavy snowfall, gusty winds may persist over these areas
through today, potentially lofting snowfall and reducing local
visibilities at times. Additionally, while the core of this low
may shift out of Southwest Alaska to the east, light snowfall is
expected to continue over the interior or Southwest Alaska
potentially through Saturday evening. The associated cloud deck of
this system will spread across the southwest, and areas that
have been entrenched with deep cold air the past few days will see
slightly warmer temperatures. This slightly warmer trend will
persist with the associated cloud deck. One exception to this
trend will be the Kuskokwim Delta, due to the storm`s distance
from the region, the Delta may see less influence from the cloud
deck, potentially continuing on their downward temperature trend.
Wind chills near 30 below are expected each of the early morning
hours in this area through the weekend.

Following the departure of this main storm system from Southwest
Alaska, deep northerly flow will re-establish itself over much of
the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. This return of Arctic air to
the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska will lead to another
period of gusty winds and light snow showers potentially
stretching into next week. For communities along the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, light snow showers along with gusty
northerly flow will result in a prolonged period of blowing snow
potential through the weekend, with reduced visibilities through
the end of the weekend. Stay tuned.

-CL/AB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure builds across
the Bering Sea through the forecast period. Strong northwesterly
flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and
cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening
coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through
the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below
normal temperatures into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A strong low moving south of the Alaska Peninsula into
Prince William Sound through Saturday brings light snow to
Anchorage into this weekend. Combined with northerly winds, this
will cause periods of MVFR to IFR cigs and vis through 21Z Friday.
As the low gets south of Seward around 00Z Saturday, moderate
snow will bring cigs and vis down to IFR with periods of LIFR
conditions. Snowfall accumulations into 15Z Saturday range from 3
to 5 inches with periods of blowing snow likely.


&&


$$