514
FXAK68 PAFC 061428
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Points:

Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
the threats of snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and dangerously low
wind chills through the end of the weekend.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Northeast Kodiak
Island from 3PM this afternoon to 3PM Sunday for 3 to 5 inches of
snow and blowing snow. Winds gusting up to 55 mph are possible for
the northern side of the island and up to 40 mph for Kodiak City.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 11PM Sunday for 30 to 40 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 11PM Sunday. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to 50 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the Knik
Arm and West Anchorage and out along the coast of the northern Gulf
coast.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Thompson Pass until 6AM
Sunday for blizzard conditions and 5 to 10 inches of snow. Winds
could gust as high as 60 mph. Wind chills falling to as low as 35
below zero by Sunday morning.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Broad Pass, Richardson
Highway from south of Isabel Pass to Paxson, and along the Tok
Cutoff from Mentasta Pass to north of Gakona through 9PM Sunday due
to blowing snow with winds gusting to 50 mph. Wind chills dip as low
as 15 to 25 degrees below zero, falling further to 25 to 40 degrees
below zero by Sunday.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
Basin until 5PM Saturday for 2 to 5 inches of snow and blowing snow.
The lowest totals will be west of Glennallen, and the  highest
totals will be south and east of Glennallen.

Discussion:

The weather over Southcentral for the foreseeable future will be
focused on the cold Arctic airmass now in place, strong gap winds,
and blowing snow leading to reduced visibilities through many of the
mountain passes. The Arctic airmass has pushed all the way to the
Gulf with coastal areas, and even Middleton Island seeing
temperatures down into the lower 30s. For inland Southcentral,
temperatures this morning are ranging from the minus single digits
to minus teens across northern Susitna Valley and the northern
Copper River Basin. With these cold temperatures, dangerous wind
chills of minus 20 to minus 30 have developed over these northern
zones. Further south, strong winds through the Matanuska Valley and
down the Knik Arm and Cook Inlet have resulted in warmer
temperatures in the teens and 20s with wind chills of near zero. The
Matanuska, Knik, and Valdez winds (including Thompson Pass) quickly
increased during the overnight hours with winds in Palmer and
Thompson Pass reaching 70 mph this morning. This has led to blowing
snow for the lower Matanuska Valley and Knik Arm, and ongoing
blizzard conditions in Thompson Pass. Strong winds will continue
through the weekend with a brief dip tonight before increasing again
Sunday. As such, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in
effect for the Matanuska Valley, Knik Arm, and down the western
Kenai. Snow will start winding down for Thompson Pass and southern
Copper Basin today, but strong winds will continue through the pass
with possible ground blizzard and dangerous wind chill conditions
through Sunday morning.

The low over the northern Gulf will retrograde southwestwards this
afternoon with surface low progged to pass to the east of Kodiak
Island. Models are in good agreement that snow will spread into the
northern half of the island beginning this afternoon and continuing
through Sunday afternoon. Strong northerly winds have allowed
temperatures to drop into the lower 30s and with the vertical
profile below freezing, precipitation type should be all snow. The
question will be on amounts given the predominantly northerly winds
for the lee-side areas like Kodiak City. There is a chance that
winds could turn more northeasterly into Kodiak City and bump up
snowfall totals. For now, lower elevations could see several inches
of snowfall. Winds will be the other concern for the island as gusts
could reach 55 mph on the northwest side of the island. This will
lead to blowing snow concerns. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for the northern half of the island for snow of 3 to
6 inches and blowing snow.

The Gulf low will start to get squished then forced eastwards early
next week as a strong Arctic high drops into the western Bering Sea.
Another reinforcing push of Arctic air looks likely heading into the
middle of next week.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Very little has changed with the short term forecast. Gusty winds
and very cold temperatures expected across much of the mainland
with snow showers along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula regions
this weekend. Strong winds in the Kuskokwim Delta may loft snow
on the ground from the previous weather event from Kipnuk north
and west and north and west of Bethel during the weekend. Due to
the threat of blowing snow, a Blizzard Warning is in effect for
the aforementioned regions. Also, the very cold air will move over
considerably warmer ocean temperatures (30s), leading to numerous
snow showers over the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula
today and the rest of the Aleutians Sunday. This, combined with
strong winds could lead to blowing snow and low visibility. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Alaska Peninsula
due to this potential for blowing snow. Another threat with the
cold and winds is wind chill. The Kuskokwim regions could see wind
chills 35F below zero for a period. Bristol Bay will see wind
chills from 20F to 30F below zero, especially in the Dillingham
region. A Wind Advisory as been issued for the Dillingham area
highlighting the gusty winds and wind chill threat this weekend.

High pressure will set up over Southwest Alaska and most of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians early next week. This will keep the cold air
mass in place and set up drier conditions overall. Winds will
diminish through Monday as well. Models are hinting at the next
front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. Model uncertainty remains high for how the
front will track across the Bering Sea.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long-term pattern will favor mostly quiet conditions across
the Southern Mainland. However, gusty gap winds will continue to
filter through the favored terrain and gaps as a cold airmass
looks to linger across the area. This is especially true for the
gaps across Southcentral such as Seward, Valdez Narrows, Whittier,
Thompson Pass, and the Matanuska Valley. Where some active
weather will occur will be across the southern Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern Aleutians as a shortwave drives southward from Siberia
to over the area Wednesday. This weak system could bring brief
visibility reduction with snow showers moving from north to south
off the Bering Sea. Also on Wednesday, a Kamchatka low sends a
front eastward across the Western Aleutians bring a round of gusty
southeast winds and gale-force winds across the marine zones of
the Western Aleutians. This front weakens as it moves eastward
through Friday. There is still some uncertainty on the eastward
progression due to the strength and progression of a broad ridge
over much of the Bering and mainland Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon today.
Northerly winds coming out of the Matanuska Valley will continue,
just clipping the terminal. Expect speeds generally around 20 kts
gusting to 35 kts through the TAF period, however gusts may
occasionally increase to 40-45 kts.

&&


$$