638
FXUS63 KABR 222329 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
529 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air moves in tonight and persists
  through the weekend. At its coldest, wind chill values bottom
  out from 30 below to 45 below zero tonight through Friday.

- A 20-40% chance for light snow Friday afternoon/night, mainly
  south of Hwy 212. Accumulations expected to be less than an
  inch.

- Slightly moderating temperatures early next week into the teens
  and 20s, above zero!

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Arctic air continues to spill southward into the CWA, with
steady/slowly falling temps now into the single digits below zero
across the northern CWA. A few locations across the far northeast
are already -10 or colder. Wind chills ranging from 30 below to 40
below zero are becoming more widespread across the northern CWA, but
Cold Advisory is already in effect until 00Z to cover this.
Switchover to Extreme Cold Warning occurs at 00Z, with a Cold
Advisory kicking in across the southwest CWA. The latest apparent
temperature (wind chill) forecast still lines up fairly well with
tonight`s advisory/warning placement, so no changes there at this
time.

The center of the arctic air mass will be overhead on Friday, with
rather light winds and bitterly cold temperatures remaining below
zero. A few records for coldest high temperatures may be in
jeopardy. Any potential for cold headlines Friday night through the
weekend looks a bit marginal at this time, so no
extensions/additions to headlines further into the weekend and will
handle it as time zero approaches.

Moderating temperatures arrive by early next week as we warm back
into the teens and 20s, but don`t see any real significant warm ups
as we stay in northwest flow aloft with rather cold air in place
over the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing conditions will be VFR conditions. That being said,
temporarily through ~03Z, there will be the potential for a couple
bands of light snow/blowing snow at KATY. Beyond that, the snow
potential really subsides and wind speeds decrease. All four
terminals should lose the gustiness prior to 06Z, with a steady
west-northwest wind between 5 and 15 knots expected to establish
during the overnight and continuing into Friday morning before
winds go light and variable Friday afternoon. Between 21Z Friday
and 00Z Saturday, the potential for light snow begins to creep
into the KPIR TAF. Precipitation chances/confidence are not high
enough yet to mention in the KPIR TAF. Stay tuned.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ004>011.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10