448
FXUS63 KABR 060441
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thundershowers will continue across the region
  into the evening/overnight hours. Additional rainfall amounts
  generally less than a half inch. No severe storms are expected.

- A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms
  Saturday afternoon/evening east of the Missouri River. There is
  a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather over portions of north
  central and northeastern South Dakota.

- Warming trend by the middle of next week, with widespread 80s for
  high temperatures by Wednesday. Although, 90s not out of the
  question.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Rain continues across most of the CWA. CAMS have expanded lowered
visibility overnight with fog. Otherwise, no changes of note with
CAMS and NBM continuing POPs well into Friday with NAM BUFKIT
profiles indicating weak daytime driven instability.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

We continue to watch light rain expand northeast across the region
as the mid-level wave of low pressure makes its way eastward across
SD. Precipitation will continue into the evening/overnight hours,
while gradually winding down in areal coverage from west to east
towards morning. Additional rainfall amounts look to be rather light
and generally be less than a half inch. PoPs will continue with
likely/definite (60% and higher) values through the evening hours,
with rain chances diminishing to just 20-40% for eastern areas by
Friday morning, with further reductions to just slight chances (20%)
by afternoon. Sky cover should also be on the decrease tonight
across north central SD, and there does appear to be at least some
potential for fog.

Will then shift focus to Saturday with the approaching cold front
and potential for strong/severe storms. Buoyancy still seems
somewhat limited, but lapse rates will be steepening with the
approach of the mid-level trough. Convergence along the front looks
to support at least a scattered/broken line of convection across ND
and perhaps into northern portions of SD by late afternoon/evening.
Any stronger storms have the potential to produce wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph, along with hail up to around quarter size.

Mid-level flow takes on more of a northwest orientation Sunday and
Monday, with another lobe of energy bringing precipitation chances
(20-40%) for eastern portions of the CWA. Upper ridging then builds
into the area on Wednesday, with the warm up still looking more
likely as 850 mb temps in the Grand Ensemble warm to +18C to +22C
across the CWA. Still forecasting widespread 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday, and temps closer to 80 on Tuesday. In fact, on Wednesday
there is potential to exceed 90 degrees as some of the warmer-end
guidance is showing. NBM 75th percentile temperatures are more into
the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Rain continues to migrate northeast across the CWA, with impacts
at that include MVFR VISBY and CIGS, albeit intermittently. We do
anticipate as we move through the TAF period, widespread lowering
CIGS to MVFR and possibly IFR and for KMBG and possibly KPIR a
drop in visibility due to fog to MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...07