465
FXUS65 KABQ 111711 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1111 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive
  populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of
  central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

- Isolated evaporating showers and dry storms Wednesday and
  Thursday afternoons will create localized gusty winds over the
  high terrain of western and northern New Mexico.

- Low chance of critical fire weather conditions in central and
  eastern New Mexico Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

The pressure gradient associated with the backdoor cold front
passage yesterday is beginning to wash out and winds are decreasing
as a result. Gusty east winds through the gaps of the central
mountain chain should end by sunrise, with winds turning around to
the south by the afternoon.

The center of an H5 ridge will shift eastward from AZ into western
NM this afternoon, keeping winds light in most areas. Temperatures
will rise above Sunday`s highs, with most areas in the 80s. The
warming trend continues into Tuesday as the center of the ridge
moves directly over central NM. 500 mb heights around 591 dam  will
increase temps another 5 to 15 degrees above Monday`s levels. This
will probably be the warmest day of the week in most areas,
including the Albuquerque metro where there is a 70 to 90% chance of
temps reaching 90F. In general, temperatures will be similar to
those during the historic heatwave back in March. That being said,
it will likely feel warmer with the higher sun angle and much warmer
overnight temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

The ridge will begin to break down on Wednesday, sending temps down
a few ticks in most areas. Moisture embedded within southwest flow
out ahead of a shortwave trough could create a few high based
showers during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Pockets of modest
instability with LIs between 0 and -2C suggest there could be a
stray lightning strike or two as well, but coverage will be very
limited. The coverage of convection increases slightly on Thursday
in response to strengthening lift from the subtropical jet to the
south. The deterministic GFS along with the GEFS ensemble mean show
a trough moving into the Four Corners region Thursday, which
could help to increase the coverage of showers a tad more over the
northwest third of the state. Both Wednesday and Thursday will
have southwest breezes in the afternoon as well thanks to
increasing flow aloft, but wind gusts should remain below 35 mph
in most areas. The synoptic pattern over the western CONUS will
remain progressive Friday through the weekend, favoring the
continuation of afternoon breezes and above average temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Typical late afternoon gustiness is forecast, but
otherwise winds will remain light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

A warming and drying trend is forecast early this week, with
temperatures rising to 10 to 20 degrees above normal by Tuesday.
Afternoon humidities drop into the single digits in most areas
Tuesday, which will likely be the driest day of the week. Winds
will generally be light given the ridge overhead, but south to
west breezes trend stronger late in the week as ridge breaks down
and the sub-tropical jet shifts overhead. Pockets of moisture
could lead to the development of isolated showers and even a few
dry storms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, with coverage
focusing over the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico.

There is a low to moderate chance of critical fire weather
conditions on Thursday and Friday as a result of increasing winds,
but model uncertainty remains high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  47  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  82  39  87  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  79  44  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  84  40  88  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  81  43  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  84  43  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  82  46  85  50 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  79  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  80  48  84  52 /   0   0   5  10
Reserve.........................  88  46  90  48 /   0   0   5   5
Glenwood........................  91  48  93  49 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  76  37  81  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  78  53  84  59 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  79  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  76  43  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  67  37  71  41 /   0   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  72  35  77  38 /   0   5   0   0
Taos............................  80  42  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  78  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  85  50  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  78  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  81  48  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  56  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  53  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  86  55  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  52  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  87  55  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  51  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  82  57  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  56  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  88  58  93  62 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  79  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  81  51  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  41  89  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  78  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  80  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  78  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  81  57  88  60 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  75  56  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
Capulin.........................  76  46  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  82  44  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  84  44  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  80  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  80  53  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  79  48  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  87  53  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  83  51  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  85  57  97  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  84  53  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  84  54  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  83  53  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  82  56  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  53  91  57 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  82  51  88  56 /   5   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11