290
FXUS65 KABQ 032335 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through the
  end of this weekend and early next week with a daily risk of
  cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized
  flash flooding mainly over central, western, and northern areas.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week across eastern New Mexico, where moderate to major heat
  risk will occur each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

With the 500 mb high pressure system centered near TN, a low
pressure system slowly crossing onshore over the OR coast, and
convectively active tropics well to the south of NM, monsoon
moisture will continue to increase over central and western parts
of the forecast area tonight, then area-wide on Friday. Some
showers and thunderstorms will probably linger late tonight into
Friday morning near the continental divide. Friday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast, except
for more numerous cells around the south central, southwest, and
west central mountains. With PWATs climbing around 1-1.3" tonight
and Friday, there will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall. The
main concern for isolated flash flooding will be Friday afternoon
and evening, when there will be a slight risk of excessive
rainfall over the west-central and southwest mountains in the
afternoon. The increased moisture, precip, and cloud cover on
Friday, will cause high temperatures on Friday to fall a few to 7
degrees over central and western NM compared to today`s readings.
Highs on Friday will vary from 6 degrees below 1991-2020 averages
around Farmington and Gallup, to as much as 12 degrees above the
averages around Clovis and Portales.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The monsoon moisture plume is forecast to continue to produce
daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
mainly over central and western parts of the forecast area
Saturday through Tuesday as the upper high varies its position
east of NM and the upper low on the OR coast gradually sweeps
inland over the northern Rockies. There will be a continued risk
of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding Saturday through at
least Monday as anomalously high PWATs continue to vary around
1-1.3 inches. The steering flow will also slow down this weekend
as the upper high aloft draws closer to NM. Models vary on whether
the upper low over the northern Rockies will begin to steer drier
air over NM on Tuesday, potentially resulting in a downtick in
storm coverage and rainfall intensity at least over northwest
parts of the state. Models vary even more on the position of the
upper high after Tuesday, with drier solutions indicating a
centroid near or just north of NM, and wetter solutions
recentering the upper high over the Mississippi River.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Scattered SHRA and isolated TS will move north over the airspace
this evening with gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and a few
lightning strikes. Thick mid level clouds and sprinkles are likely
to continue overnight within central and western NM. A more robust
crop of SHRA/TS will develop over the airspace between 11am and
3pm Friday then move north/northeast. Direct hits will produce
brief heavy rain, strong outflow winds, and frequent lightning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

With minimum humidities remaining above 15 percent for the next
seven days, the main fire weather concern from day to day will be
gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  82  59  83 /  20  20  10   0
Dulce...........................  46  82  47  85 /  40  20  20  10
Cuba............................  56  79  56  82 /  50  30  50  10
Gallup..........................  54  77  53  80 /  30  30  20   5
El Morro........................  52  75  52  78 /  40  50  30  20
Grants..........................  54  80  55  82 /  40  60  40  20
Quemado.........................  55  77  55  79 /  50  70  40  30
Magdalena.......................  59  82  59  83 /  30  60  40  40
Datil...........................  54  77  55  79 /  30  60  30  50
Reserve.........................  55  84  54  86 /  40  50  30  50
Glenwood........................  58  90  58  94 /  50  30  20  30
Chama...........................  50  77  50  80 /  30  30  20  30
Los Alamos......................  60  81  61  83 /  40  30  40  40
Pecos...........................  58  84  57  86 /  20  20  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  54  81  55  83 /  20  20  20  40
Red River.......................  46  72  47  74 /  20  20  10  60
Angel Fire......................  40  78  40  80 /  20  40  20  70
Taos............................  53  84  53  86 /  20  20  20  30
Mora............................  54  83  54  83 /  20  40  30  70
Espanola........................  59  88  60  90 /  30  30  40  20
Santa Fe........................  61  84  61  86 /  20  20  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  59  87  59  89 /  20  20  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  90  67  92 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  90  65  92 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  92  64  94 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  90  67  92 /  20  20  30  10
Belen...........................  63  91  63  93 /  20  30  40  10
Bernalillo......................  66  91  66  93 /  30  20  40  10
Bosque Farms....................  62  91  62  93 /  20  30  30  10
Corrales........................  66  91  66  94 /  20  20  40  10
Los Lunas.......................  63  91  63  93 /  20  30  30  10
Placitas........................  65  88  65  90 /  30  20  40  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  90  66  93 /  20  20  40  10
Socorro.........................  68  94  67  95 /  30  30  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  85  59  86 /  20  20  40  30
Tijeras.........................  61  85  61  87 /  20  20  30  30
Edgewood........................  57  88  57  88 /  20  30  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  89  55  90 /  10  30  30  50
Clines Corners..................  59  86  59  86 /  10  30  30  50
Mountainair.....................  58  86  57  87 /  20  30  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  59  87  58  87 /  20  30  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  64  90 /  10  40  20  60
Ruidoso.........................  58  83  58  83 /  10  60  20  80
Capulin.........................  58  87  58  86 /   5  20  10  40
Raton...........................  55  89  55  89 /  10  20  10  40
Springer........................  55  91  56  91 /  10  20  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  56  86  57  86 /  10  30  20  50
Clayton.........................  66  95  66  94 /   0  10  20  20
Roy.............................  61  90  61  90 /   5  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  67  99  67  98 /   5  20  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  66  93  65  93 /   5  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  70  99  69  98 /   5  10  20  10
Clovis..........................  69  99  68  98 /  20  20  20   5
Portales........................  70 100  69  99 /  20  20  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  68  99  68  98 /  10  10  20   0
Roswell.........................  70 101  70 100 /  10  20  20   0
Picacho.........................  64  94  64  93 /  10  60  10  30
Elk.............................  60  91  60  91 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...42