293
FXUS65 KABQ 230530 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1030 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1016 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - High temperatures well above 30-year averages Friday and
   Saturday.

 - Breezy to windy conditions in many locations Sunday, and
   especially Wednesday when temperatures will fall areawide.

 - Increasing precipitation chances over northern and western
   areas late Monday through Thursday. The northern mountains may
   accumulate a few to several inches of snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Despite some gusty winds for the central mountain chain and the
central highlands during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday,
overall pleasant weather for the weekend. Mostly clear skies and
above average temperatures through the weekend, but temperatures
will drop on Monday as a backdoor front moves through. Rain and
higher elevation snow in store for northern New Mexico for Tuesday
through Thanksgiving. The highest snowfall amounts look to be over
the Tusas Mts. Temperatures will drop on Thursday as the system
exits the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

A ridge of high pressure will finish passing eastward over the
forecast area Saturday. As the ridge axis aloft shifts east of NM,
westerly flow aloft will begin to strengthen and a surface trough
will develop in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This will
induce west and southwest surface wind gusts up to 35 mph across
east central areas Saturday afternoon.  The downslope flow will
cause temperatures to climb around 4 to 9 degrees across the eastern
plains. High temperatures across the forecast area on Saturday will
vary around 6 to 16 degrees above 1991-2020 averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

A system originating from the PNW will making its way across the
central CONUS on Sunday. As a result, the upper level pattern will
become more zonal as the ridge of high pressure continues to break
down. Recent trends in guidance have pulled back on the chances of
precipitation for Sunday and Monday, keeping things north of New
Mexico as the trough passes through. As a result, the main concern
Sunday afternoon will be gusty westerly winds for the central
mountain chain and the eastern plains. Mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, particularly over the upper half of New Mexico where
a 60-70kt jet could create some mountain wave action. Bumped up wind
speeds closer to the upper end of guidance to the 25-30kt range for
the central highlands and and east slopes of the Sangres.
Downsloping winds will also aid in keeping temperatures unseasonable
warm for the eastern plains, around 15 degrees above average on
Sunday.

A backdoor cold front will push through New Mexico on Monday. The
eastern half of the state will see an easterly wind shift but speeds
look to remain fairly light. The biggest change in the weather will
be the sharp drop in temperatures, particularly for the eastern
plains. Locations in the northeast part of the state such as
Tucumcari and Clayton will go from highs about 15 degrees above
average on Sunday, to about 10 degrees below average on Monday with
highs only in the mid 40s. Late Monday and into Wednesday, an
approaching trough will bring rain to the Four Corners and snow for
the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts at this time look to
remain light for most of northern New Mexico, but the Tusas
Mountains will likely be the area to see the most snowfall at just
over a couple inches. As the system traverses through the
intermountain west, a backdoor cold front also looks to push through
the state on Thanksgiving Day giving us below average temperatures
for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR will impact all terminals the next 24 hrs. Patchy cirrus will
increase overnight with strengthening ridge top winds by sunrise.
West/southwest winds will trend stronger Saturday with peak gusts
between 20 and 30KT after 1pm around the higher terrain and the
eastern plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven
days, but there will be ventilation concerns. A ridge of high
pressure will finish passing eastward over the forecast area
Saturday, when a surface trough will develop in the lee of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and downslope flow will begin to
strengthen on the eastern plains.  An upper level trough passing
north of NM will cause winds to strengthen further on Sunday, when
west and southwest wind gusts will reach up to 45 mph along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain and around Gallup. Pacific and
backdoor cold fronts will also cross on Sunday and Sunday night,
resulting in much colder temperatures on Monday. A series of
disturbances will bring increasing coverage of rain and snow mainly
to northern areas Monday night through Wednesday, then coverage will
decrease Wednesday night and Thursday. Wetting precipitation looks
to favor the northern mountains and Four Corners area.  A few to
several inches of snow will be possible in the northern mountains
with potentially over a foot in the Tusas Mountains near the CO
border. Breezy west and northwest flow will develop Wednesday as
Pacific and backdoor cold fronts cross. High temperatures will fall
well below 30-year averages Thursday, then begin to rebound as the
weather dries out Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  19  60  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  13  61  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  23  60  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  14  63  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  25  62  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  17  66  21  63 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  23  67  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  34  66  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  27  65  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  22  70  22  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  30  73  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  55  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  31  57  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  34  60  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  28  56  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  24  50  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  11  52  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  18  58  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  22  63  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  33  57  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  26  58  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  62  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  33  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  25  63  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  31  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  26  63  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  31  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  28  63  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  33  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  32  62  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  67  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  33  59  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  26  61  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  18  64  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  29  59  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  28  61  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  30  61  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  36  65  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  39  63  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  28  57  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  24  63  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  20  59  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  30  65  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  35  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  28  65  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  73  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  33  70  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  29  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  34  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  32  72  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  29  73  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  33  70  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  36  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  36  75  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42