Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
880 FXUS65 KABQ 311911 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 111 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through Friday with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locations with saturated ground, and poorly drained areas. Rainfall rates will exceed 2 inches per hour with a few of the stronger storms. - High pressure will build overhead early next week reducing thunderstorm coverage and resulting in moderate heat risk in many lower-elevation locations, except for locally major heat risk to the southeast plains including Roswell. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop as of 12pm today, and further development is expected to continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms initiating off of the high terrain are likely to have slow and erratic storm motions, based on the upper level high sitting near the bootheel of NM. With slow storm motions and a moist atmosphere (0.98" PWAT on the 18z ABQ sounding), efficient rainfall rates are likely, perhaps exceeding 2"/hr in some of the stronger storms. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 9pm tonight, mainly for the HPCC and Ruidoso area burn scars, as well as the Gila Region in southwest NM. Folks in these areas should have a plan if a warning should be issued (where as of 1230pm, Ruidoso has been placed in a Flash Flood Warning). Elsewhere, in western NM, the Gallup Airport received a severe wind gust yesterday from a nearby virga shower, and there are likely to be more gusty outflow winds from mainly dry showers and storms across far western NM through the afternoon. Showers and storms across the central mountain chain this early afternoon move slowly to the east/southeast into eastern NM, where locally heavy rainfall may cause isolated flooding impacts, especially in places that have received heavy rainfall over the past few days. Not a whole lot is expected to change for Friday, with afternoon and evening thunderstorms forming off of the high terrain and moving into the lower terrain. The only significant difference is an increase in upper level westerlies across northern and specifically northeast NM. 0-6km bulk shear values are expected to increase into the 30- 40kt range, sufficient enough to sustain updrafts and produce strong to severe storms. Collaborated with SPC to place a Marginal (1/5) risk of severe storms in northeast NM for the Day 2 (Friday) outlook. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The upper high shifts slightly to our west through the weekend, sending slightly drier air around its northern periphery into the state. Leftover moisture from this past week should remain abundant enough to produce scattered storms off the high terrain for Saturday, before the high shifts more over the state itself Sunday. By this time, precipitation chances dwindle below 10% for the entire state as the heat ramps up. Temperatures are likely to be 5-10F above average across much of the state, with high 90s to low 100s for high temperatures Sunday. Moderate risk of heat related impacts is likely across central and southeast NM Sunday and continuing into next week, with locally major risk in and near the Roswell area as highs climb into the mid 100s. The upper high continues to sit over the state moving into the middle part of the week, continuing hot temperatures across much of the region, with a low chance of seeing 100F in ABQ by Wednesday. Moisture wrapping around the west side of the high may work to induce high terrain showers and thunderstorms across western and northern NM, where localized flash flood threats may return based on slow storm motions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop through the afternoon, producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. PROB30s exist at most TAF sites for thunderstorms, with a TEMPO at KLVS. KGUP experienced virga-induced severe winds yesterday, and the expectation is another round of gusty virga winds will develop this afternoon from surrounding showers. Within any thunderstorm, short- lived MVFR conditions are likely. Thunderstorms developing across and just east of the Sandia and Manzano Mountains may develop a gusty gap wind affecting KABQ after 00z. A second round of precipitation may move across the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains near or after 06z tonight affecting KLVS, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF outside VCSH. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, however elevated fire weather conditions are possible across western NM Saturday and across much of the region Sunday. With a high pressure moving over the area, humidity levels drop into the low teens and single digits across the aforementioned areas. Winds remain light to hinder chances of seeing critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, moisture remains in place today and tomorrow where scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the high terrain produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Isolated to scattered storms are favored to return mid next week to the western high terrain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 92 64 95 / 30 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 47 87 47 89 / 60 30 20 10 Cuba............................ 54 86 57 89 / 70 30 30 10 Gallup.......................... 53 89 54 92 / 30 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 54 84 55 87 / 60 40 30 10 Grants.......................... 55 87 56 91 / 60 40 30 10 Quemado......................... 56 85 58 88 / 60 50 30 20 Magdalena....................... 60 83 62 87 / 60 50 20 20 Datil........................... 55 82 56 85 / 60 60 30 30 Reserve......................... 54 90 55 93 / 50 70 20 30 Glenwood........................ 58 94 61 97 / 60 60 20 20 Chama........................... 46 80 49 82 / 60 40 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 56 81 59 84 / 60 40 20 20 Pecos........................... 54 81 55 85 / 60 50 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 81 53 83 / 60 60 20 30 Red River....................... 44 72 45 74 / 60 70 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 40 74 40 77 / 70 70 20 40 Taos............................ 51 83 52 86 / 60 50 20 20 Mora............................ 48 78 49 82 / 70 60 30 30 Espanola........................ 57 88 58 92 / 70 40 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 58 83 60 86 / 70 40 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 86 58 90 / 70 40 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 89 68 92 / 70 30 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 90 66 94 / 60 30 30 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 93 65 97 / 60 20 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 91 66 95 / 60 30 20 5 Belen........................... 61 92 63 96 / 60 20 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 63 91 65 95 / 70 30 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 61 92 63 96 / 60 20 20 5 Corrales........................ 63 92 66 96 / 60 30 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 62 92 64 96 / 60 20 20 5 Placitas........................ 61 88 64 92 / 70 30 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 63 91 65 95 / 60 30 30 10 Socorro......................... 64 93 66 96 / 60 30 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 83 59 87 / 70 30 30 10 Tijeras......................... 58 83 60 88 / 70 30 30 10 Edgewood........................ 53 83 55 88 / 70 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 85 53 89 / 60 30 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 54 78 55 83 / 60 40 30 5 Mountainair..................... 55 83 57 87 / 60 40 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 55 82 58 86 / 50 40 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 62 86 64 89 / 50 40 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 55 78 57 82 / 40 50 10 20 Capulin......................... 54 78 52 82 / 70 60 40 30 Raton........................... 54 81 51 86 / 70 60 40 30 Springer........................ 55 84 53 88 / 60 60 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 79 53 85 / 60 60 30 20 Clayton......................... 60 82 58 89 / 30 40 40 10 Roy............................. 58 80 56 86 / 60 40 40 10 Conchas......................... 63 88 62 94 / 40 30 40 5 Santa Rosa...................... 61 85 60 91 / 40 30 30 5 Tucumcari....................... 60 84 60 90 / 30 20 30 0 Clovis.......................... 64 89 65 94 / 30 20 30 0 Portales........................ 65 90 64 96 / 30 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 89 64 94 / 30 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 69 94 69 98 / 30 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 62 86 61 91 / 30 30 10 5 Elk............................. 58 83 59 89 / 30 40 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-209-214-215- 226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77