Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
758 FXUS64 KLIX 020838 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The somewhat active pattern continues into Sunday with the region remaining under a northwesterly flow aloft on the northeast side of a rather strong H5 ridge centered over Mexico. Within this flow (very reminiscent of summer) some rather robust impulses have been sliding through the region and this should continue again today and into the start of the new workweek. Initially, this morning an impulse has helped develop some isolated but rather strong T`storms just west of the Atchafalaya. These storms are elevated in nature given the LCH and LIX 00z RAOBs depicting low level inversions at the surface. Still, a strong wind gust, heavy rain and hail (some could be large) will be possible with this activity as it moves southeast. The best potential at the moment early this morning seems to be along and west of the Mississippi River or more specifically Terrebonne Parish and the near shore gulf waters/Terrebonne Bay. As this initial short wave continues downstream there may be a bit of a break later this morning. This break will allow conditions to destabilize and allow for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop once again as yet another ripple within the flow moves overhead. CAMs are NOT performing the greatest at the moment so we did do a broad brush with POPs today and tried to get timing down, but at this juncture POPs are based on timing of the individual impulses as well as the diurnal cycle. With cloudiness around, insolation looks to be limited, but a break in showers/convection with the strong sun angle will still provide enough surface heating to destabilize. Since CAMs are struggling, followed the globals lead for both QPF/POPs generally across the board through today. By Monday, we`ll need to watch a potential MCS to our northwest, however, guidance isn`t very aggressive at least not for our area. The synoptic pattern begins a very subtle change allowing for the more intense mid level shortwave to become negatively tilted and shifts the upper flow to a more zonal flow keeping most of this activity to the north. Still, with very subtle ripples within this flow and again diurnal processes, rain chances are NOT zero, but should be quite a bit lower than today with generally 20/30 POPs across the board. Consequently, temperatures begin to rebound with MaxTs approaching the 90F mark once again. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A bit less active going into the long term as the zonal mid and upper level flow continues across the region. Upper level ridging will slide eastward across more of the central Gulf. With the lower POPs and less cloudiness, temperatures will be increasing into the 90s for most of the CWFA. By Wednesday, a surface front and parent trough begin to slide southward from the Missouri Ozarks and eventually winding up across the mid south. The zonal flow quickly evolves by Wednesday and Thursday back to a northerly flow. This will help bring the front southward toward the northeast Gulf. With the upper trough moving south and eastward, most of the best upper level support will miss our region to the east, but the eastern third of the CWFA will have a shot of showers/convection. As this first frontal boundary moves south and east, surface high pressure develops/centers across the northern Gulf. This will limit winds and overall will suppress rain chances. Again, consequently, strong insolation will help max temps climb into the 90s just about everywhere. By Friday, a second front will be sliding southward from the Ohio/TN River Valleys. Globals are a bit (or a lot) off with the GFS being the slower of the solutions with the front draped across our area a full 24 hours or more after the ECM. So, needless to say confidence isn`t quite high in the timing. But, with the broad- scale trough setting up across the east and the front making it this far south, think rain chances will be there and should gradually increase in time as confidence in when and exactly where the better support will be aloft going into the start of next weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 All terminals currently VFR and expected to hold through early morning hours. Low ceilings and visibility can be expected to bring KMCB to IFR just before sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times at all terminals from mid morning through the end of the period. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The main concerns going into the start of the new workweek and beyond will be the potential for convection across the local waters. In and around the local Gulf Waters and tidal lakes. Surface winds eventually shift to a more southerly direction and will generally range between light to moderate (some winds up to 15kts not out of the realm of possibility Tue/Wed), but high pressure builds right back across the Gulf, which should help relax surface winds and seas. Again, higher winds and seas can be anticipated in convection. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 82 68 87 70 / 50 10 30 10 BTR 87 73 91 74 / 60 10 30 0 ASD 85 72 89 74 / 50 10 20 0 MSY 84 75 89 76 / 50 20 20 0 GPT 85 73 87 75 / 50 20 20 0 PQL 85 71 89 72 / 50 20 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...DS MARINE...RDF