Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
539 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT TO INCREASE TODAY, WITH
FLOODING THREAT CONTINUING SATURDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Mainly Along and South of Interstate 44.
ONSET...Ongoing.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Critical.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this morning
across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, with an elevated
severe weather risk. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter is the
primary threat, with locally damaging winds also possible.

After a relative lull in the storm activity around midday,
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon
across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas near a
retreating frontal boundary, with an elevated to significant risk
of severe weather. If the frontal boundary retreats far enough to
the north, environmental conditions will favor all modes of
severe weather, including large hail, locally damaging winds, and
tornadoes. This threat will shift to the east early this evening.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms between today and Saturday are
expected to yield rainfall totals in the 4 to 8 inch range across
far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas, with 3 to 5
inches across the rest of southeast Oklahoma into far northwest
Arkansas. Isolated totals over 8 inches are possible. The heavy
rainfall is likely to result in some dangerous flash flooding and
main-stem river flooding that will likely linger into early next
week.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Rain may mix with or change to snow across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before ending late Saturday night
into early Sunday. As mentioned above, main-stem river flooding
will likely linger into early next week, otherwise an extended
period of quiet weather is expected next week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather and flooding impacts are likely to impact parts of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas now through the weekend.
Multiple periods of response may be required.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
453 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-051000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
453 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A warm front will lift northward into Arkansas today, eventually
stalling out once again across the north-central and west-central
sections of the state. Conditions along and south of the front
will become very unstable by this afternoon as temperatures warm
into the 80s. All modes of severe weather will be possible,
including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. A few long-
track tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Additionally, heavy rainfall will remain a concern through tonight,
especially across the northwest half of the state. These areas
could see an additional 2 to 5 inches of rainfall through tonight.
Expect locations to experience flash flooding as well as the
potential for likely river flooding as river basins continue to
see more rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will remain likely on Saturday into Saturday night...
with strong to severe weather potential remaining. All modes of
severe weather will be possible Saturday afternoon and
evening...including large hail...damaging winds...and a few
tornadoes. The highest threat for severe weather on Saturday will
be across the southeastern two-thirds of the area.

Areas of heavy rainfall will continue on Saturday into Saturday
night as well...with the threat for flash and river flooding
continuing to remain a very significant hazard.

Expect the threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather to exit the
region by Sunday afternoon. Some areas could see temperatures
dropping into the low and mid 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. This
may result in some frost or freeze conditions for some areas over
northwestern portions of the state. Otherwise...the threat for
hazardous weather will become low into the middle of next week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation will be needed through Saturday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

$$

44/62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050845-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms could impact southeast Kansas this afternoon
and evening but strong or severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Snow may mix with rain at times Saturday night into early Sunday.
Little or no snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning and again late Sunday night into
Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
321 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Moderate tornado risk.
  Enhanced hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Extreme excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will move back into the area this morning and
overspread the region. Some small hail will be possible with the
stronger storms this morning. As a warm front approaches the area,
hail to the size of quarters will be possible earlier in the
afternoon. If the front can make it into south central Missouri
later this afternoon, then all modes of severe storms will be
possible south of that front including tornadoes and large hail to
the size of golf balls.

In addition to the severe storm potential, very heavy rain and
flooding will be possible today and tonight, with the best chances
for excessive rain and flooding, along and southeast of the
Interstate 44 corridor.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding is likely to continue on Saturday.
Storm system total amounts of at least 3 to 6 inches, with higher
amounts of 8 to 10 inches are possible. This could result in
significant flooding and flash flooding.  A Flood Watch is in
effect for areas along and southeast of Interstate 44.

Cold temperatures will move into the area late in the weekend
which could bring sub-freezing temperatures on Sunday night and
again on Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening
over south central Missouri, most likely southeast of a Branson to
Salem line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Lindenberg