Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-181000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
624 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Some patchy dense fog will be possible this morning...reducing
visibilities to 1/4 mile or less at times. This fog will dissipate
later this morning.
A break in the activity will be seen this morning into the early
afternoon hours. However...more thunderstorms will develop
southwest of the state this afternoon...then move northeast into
the state this afternoon and this evening. This activity will have
the potential to become severe...with damaging winds and large
hail the primary threats expected. Locally heavy rainfall may also
result in some isolated flash flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Thunderstorm chances will be seen off an on into Monday as an
active pattern will remain in place. A few thunderstorms may still
have the potential to become severe each day. More organized
strong to severe weather will come late on Monday and through
Tuesday as a potent storm system moves through the region. Calmer
conditions will then be seen by the middle of next week.
.Spotter Information Statement...
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon/evening.
&&
Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.
DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon over
southeast and south central Oklahoma, and this activity will expand
into southeastern Oklahoma this evening. Very unstable air is in
place along and south of a warm front across central into
southeastern Oklahoma. This instability combined with strong wind
shear across the area will support supercells, which will have the
potential for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly
tornadoes.
Other thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over
northern Oklahoma, and this activity is expected to spread into
parts of northeast Oklahoma. Large hail and strong winds are possible
with this activity. These storms may reach northwest Arkansas late
this evening and overnight. The severe potential may begin to drop
as these storms get into northwest Arkansas, but confidence is not
high on when this weakening will occur.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The threat for severe weather increases on Sunday and increases
further on Monday. Unstable air is forecast to overspread the entire
area as a storm system approaches from the west. The degree of
forecast instability and the pattern of the winds aloft suggest the
potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes on
both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, the greater risk is expected to
be more confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma. The higher-end
potential on Monday is forecast to be over most of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west-central Arkansas. Severe thunderstorm chances
continue into early Tuesday as the system exits the area to the east
during the day.
Low thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of severe weather,
are reintroduced late this week after a couple of days of fair
weather.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be ready for 3 days
in a row of severe weather operations, and be ready to respond to
impacts.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
$$
69
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025
KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-182000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
259 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Slight hail risk.
Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
Limited lightning risk.
Limited excessive rainfall risk
DISCUSSION...
There is a 50 to 80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
to move in from the southwest after 7 PM tonight. There is a
Marginal (1 of 5) and Slight (2 of 5) Risk along and south of a
Nevada to Eminence line. Within this risk area, there is a 5 to 29
percent chance for some storms to produce wind gusts up to 60 mph
and quarter-sized hail.
Relative humidities this afternoon are also forecast to drop to
the 30-35% range, with a chance for areas to drop to 25%. This
may bring a fire weather risk, though light winds and recent
rainfall should keep the risk pretty low.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible Sunday night
through Tuesday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.
The best chance for severe weather will be Sunday night and
Monday night. Additionally, there is the potential for localized
heavy rainfall and flooding with this activity.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed Sunday.
&&
More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket
This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf
$$
Soria
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-180830-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
325 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 /425 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Hazardous weather is not anticipated.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Thunderstorms return to the forecast Sunday into early next week,
with Tuesday offering the next best chance for strong to
potentially severe storms.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.
$$
