Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
121 PM ChST Tue Oct 22 2024

GUZ001-MPZ001>003-230330-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
121 PM ChST Tue Oct 22 2024

...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL
MERGE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
...MARIANAS RAIN AND WIND POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK...

Two disturbances, Invests 97W and 98W, are expected to converge
somewhere near or SE of Guam tonight or Wed before slowly becoming
better organized and heading N or NW. While showers and
thunderstorms will cluster near 97W and the eventual 97W-98W
merger, drier conditions are likely to spread in to the Marianas
from the north. By late week, as the merged disturbance becomes
better organized and heads N or NW, the potential for heavy rains
and strong gusty winds will remain highly dependent on the exact
path of the disturbance with a sharp gradient in worsened
conditions aligned near the islands.

WHAT WE KNOW:
The highest likelihood for stronger winds looks to be focused along
the eastern periphery of the merged circulation. Locally heavy
rainfall will also develop near the center, then will gradually
extend south to southwest as the circulation and ensuing southwest
monsoon develops late week

WHAT REMAINS UNANSWERED:
While model guidance continues to point to the eventual merger of the
two disturbances southeast of Guam, they still have not yet converged
on the timing, eventual track north or northwest, rate of
development, or the expanse of impactful winds and rainfall. These
conditions will become better known in the next 24 hours.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning. For more
information please visit:

- www.weather.gov/gum
- www.weather.gov/safety/flood

$$

Doll/B.Aydlett